Vegas is probably 60-65% of the population, if not a little more.
Reno's probably about 20-25% more.
The rest of the state is HIGHLY Republican. Elko County (Northeastern NV) went something like 76% Bush in 2004. Population of Elko County is around 60-70k. Rural NV has a strong Libertarian streak, but if it will get past the 'party line' I can't say.
Those are really rough estimates.
Both Reno & Vegas have been overrun with Californians in the last 5-10 years. In the past Vegas was more Dem, everything else (including Reno) more Rep.
From my experiences 'spreading the word' I'd say tipped casino employees are 10-15% Republican. The younger they are the more likely they are IND or even unregistered; the ones who have been around awhile are a bit more likely to be Dem. Very high apathy levels. Most are worried about the next rent payment, not the election. This is my experience in Reno, Vegas might be different, although I doubt it would be an extreme difference.
Edit: don't know the actual % of service industry workers in NV...it is very high, the mega-casinos employ thousands
Hope that helps.
OK, you just made my point why the No Tax On Tips ad would be better than the troops support ron paul ad.
By your estimation 80-90% of the nevada population is centered in vegas and reno....exactly what i thought and 15% is republican of that number.
The other 10-20% not in reno/vegas and is heavily republican based on the 75% vote for bush.
Lets split the difference and say 85% is in reno/vegas nevada with 15% outside of reno/vegas.
the other 15% of the state outside of vegas/reno is 75% republican supporting bush policies.
Census reports show Nevada's population at roughly 2 million.
So if you find the population in Reno/Vegas that is republican, that would be 2,000,000 x .85 x .15 = 255,000 although not all will be people who rely on tips for a living.
Outside Reno/Vegas would be 2,000,000 x .15 x .75 = 225,000
So the majority of voters would be the Reno/Vegas workers by 30,000 over the rural area major republicans. Since not all Reno/Vegas area workers will rely on tips lets call it even.
First consider the 225,000 in the rural areas are likely to be the people who will be willing to stick with Iraq, however their vote will be divided between other pro war Iraq republicans.
The 255,000 Republicans in the Reno/Vegas area on the other hand will be the ones who will be more open to the no tax on tips pledge from RP.....
So what makes more sense to you?
Go with the troops support RP in ads to appeal to a portion of 225,000 likely republican voters.....that will also equally side with Rudy McRomney's positions and split that demographic?
Or go with No Tax on Tips ads that will likely appeal to the same number of voters that no other candidate is going after?
I think using math, we can show the statistics favor us going after the no tax on tips people in nevada, than trying to split the war vote......pure logic...
Get the no tax on tips ads going asap HQ.
this isn't rocket science.