What a 2nd, 3rd or 4th place finish means for Ron Pauls campaign.

[Perry]

2nd place means we have excelled and are ahead of the curve. Media coverage from this point on is easier to obtain less 6 million dollar fund raising events.
3rd place means we have met expectations and are on the mark. The fight continues on much as it has. Ron Paul does not lose supporters so as long as the momentum continues to progress our positioning is healthy.
A 4th place finish in Iowa means we have fallen short and the only way to recover is a 1st place finish in New Hampshire. 4th place in unacceptable. In my humble opinion if we fail to gain better traction than this after all the work we have done then the future of other primaries is bleak.
1st place in Iowa with 1st in New Hampshire means we need to begin focusing on doing battle with the democrats rather than the republicans.
Votes and %'s mean little or nothing. Placement is everything. It does not matter if you win or lose by an inch or a mile. Winning is winning and losing is losing.

 

[roversaurus]

Analysis off by one position

I think your analysis on "what it means" is off by one.

If we pull 2nd in Iowa it means we've won and we start attacking Hillary and
Obama who is our biggest threat.

Pulling #3 means we exceeded expectations and we start to see a ton
of free media.

Pulling 4th means we're on a good track. MORE than what we expected 1 month ago.
MORE than what the medis expects right now. Our media attention may or may not go up.

5th place means we keep working as hard or harder than ever with the media
set against us. But we have STILL beaten Guliani.

 

[Paul10]

....

 

[thoughtbombing]

I think your analysis on "what it means" is off by one.

If we pull 2nd in Iowa it means we've won and we start attacking Hillary and
Obama who is our biggest threat.

We haven't won until Ron Paul is finished with his second term and we've got a New Liberty loving President Elect, being shown around the White House by an older, wiser, beloved President Ron Paul...

then we take a BRIEF nap for a couple of weeks--but don't ever think we won anything. The Price of Liberty is Eternal vigilance!

 

[Goldwater Conservative]

3rd place means we have met expectations and are on the mark. The fight continues on much as it has. Ron Paul does not lose supporters so as long as the momentum continues to progress our positioning is healthy.

Unfortunately, I think that's their strategy. Raise expectations for Paul at the last minute, which means he will likely do no better than match them.

Anyway, I agree with the rest of your assessment, but only because that's how the media will treat it. Most of the other candidates on either side can keep their campaign on life support by getting fourth, but we'll be kicked to the curb for it.

If we pull 2nd in Iowa it means we've won and we start attacking Hillary and
Obama who is our biggest threat.

I don't think we should attack them, especially Obama. We need the independents in New Hampshire, and not only will negative campaigning or Paul assuming he's winning because of what Iowa said turn them off, but it wouldn't fit in with the civil, issue-oriented campaign the good doctor has run so far.

 

[Perry]

I agree with the rest of your assessment, but only because that's how the media will treat it.

Well now you've hit on it haven't you? The ugly truth rears its head. Media does matter.

 

[Nailhead]

4th would be disappointing because any media coverage we get for fourth will be smear pieces about how Paul spent more time in state than whoever got third and still lost to them.

3rd would be good, but the MSM will just play that as something along the lines of "well yeah of course RP got 3rd he was the only other candidate other than mitt and huck to campaign there"

2nd is I feel a reasonable goal that will benefit the campaign the most (aside from 1st lol) because the media will not be able to spin the loss of one of the expected darling candidates to RP...although im sure they will try

 

[stevedasbach]

I think your analysis on "what it means" is off by one.

If we pull 2nd in Iowa it means we've won and we start attacking Hillary and
Obama who is our biggest threat.

Pulling #3 means we exceeded expectations and we start to see a ton
of free media.

Pulling 4th means we're on a good track. MORE than what we expected 1 month ago.
MORE than what the medis expects right now. Our media attention may or may not go up.

5th place means we keep working as hard or harder than ever with the media
set against us. But we have STILL beaten Guliani.

+1

 

[MoneyWhereMyMouthIs2]

Anyway, I agree with the rest of your assessment, but only because that's how the media will treat it. Most of the other candidates on either side can keep their campaign on life support by getting fourth, but we'll be kicked to the curb for it.

You may not have noticed, but Paul has been kicked to the curb over and over again. He can finish first in this, and they'll spin it in some other direction.

 

[thoughtbombing]

You may not have noticed, but Paul has been kicked to the curb over and over again. He can finish first in this, and they'll spin it in some other direction.

2, 3, 4 finish = TOTAL FAILURE.

 

[Perry]

To any who believes that 4th is satisfactory, I think you are attempting to create a buffer for yourself.

We finished 5th at Ames.
1. Mitt Romney
2. Mike Huckabee
3. Sam Brownback out
4. Tom Tancredo out
5. Ron Paul
6. Tommy Thompson
7. Fred Thompson
8. Rudy Giuliani
9. Duncan Hunter
10. John McCain
11. John Cox

With Brownback & Tancredo out a fourth place finish in Iowa would mean we have lost momentum since Ames. We must place ahead of John McCain.

 

[freedom-maniac]

My opinion:

1st: A first place would actually be bad. No one would except it. They will say we stuffed ballot boxes, or something.
2nd: Second is probably the best place. It leaves room for improvement in NH and gives plenty of free publicity. Plus it will get the media hyped up in a good way.
3rd: This should be our target. It shows R.P. being a front runner, but doesn't allow the MSM to crucify us as easily.
4th: Not good, but still finishing ahead of 2 "national candidates" should get us into the ABC debate
5th: Finishing ahead of one front-runner, but any hope for later victory lies entirely on NH.
6th: Were the MSM told us we will be. A MAJOR problem.
7th or 8th: *Look for signs of voter fraud*

 

[berkeleybound]

To any who believes that 4th is satisfactory, I think you are attempting to create a buffer for yourself.

We finished 5th at Ames.
1. Mitt Romney
2. Mike Huckabee
3. Sam Brownback out
4. Tom Tancredo out
5. Ron Paul
6. Tommy Thompson
7. Fred Thompson
8. Rudy Giuliani
9. Duncan Hunter
10. John McCain
11. John Cox

With Brownback & Tancredo out a fourth place finish in Iowa would mean we have lost momentum since Ames. We must place ahead of John McCain.

Hmm, well Tommy Thompson's out too, but I'm afraid McCain and Fred Thompson have gotten some polling bumps since then.

 

[adpierce]

My opinion:

1st: A first place would actually be bad. No one would except it. They will say we stuffed ballot boxes, or something.
2nd: Second is probably the best place. It leaves room for improvement in NH and gives plenty of free publicity. Plus it will get the media hyped up in a good way.
3rd: This should be our target. It shows R.P. being a front runner, but doesn't allow the MSM to crucify us as easily.
4th: Not good, but still finishing ahead of 2 "national candidates" should get us into the ABC debate
5th: Finishing ahead of one front-runner, but any hope for later victory lies entirely on NH.
6th: Were the MSM told us we will be. A MAJOR problem.
7th or 8th: *Look for signs of voter fraud*

1st is the best! If somebody comes from behind to win Iowa that's huge. It's a big smack down to those that have been saying Ron Paul had no chance. Ballot stuffing? Come on! Read up on how the caucuses work... there are no ballots. There are just people who count how many people showed up for each candidate. The totals are tallied up and then sent by phone to a central gop hq.

 

[Goldwater Conservative]

Hmm, well Tommy Thompson's out too, but I'm afraid McCain and Fred Thompson have gotten some polling bumps since then.

And 107,000 of our 130,000 donors in 2007 donated for the first time at least two months after the Ames straw poll.

 

[Aaya]

We haven't won until Ron Paul is finished with his second term and we've got a New Liberty loving President Elect, being shown around the White House by an older, wiser, beloved President Ron Paul...

then we take a BRIEF nap for a couple of weeks--but don't ever think we won anything. The Price of Liberty is Eternal vigilance!

+1

 

[Karsten]

1st is the best! If somebody comes from behind to win Iowa that's huge. It's a big smack down to those that have been saying Ron Paul had no chance. Ballot stuffing? Come on! Read up on how the caucuses work... there are no ballots. There are just people who count how many people showed up for each candidate. The totals are tallied up and then sent by phone to a central gop hq.

No.... I do recall in elementary school that is was FIRST the WORST, and SECOND the BEST, and THIRD the NERD.

 

[jeremycobert]

4ht place is totally acceptable !
this is a national campaign people, let the top 3 sling mud as we build momentum into super tuesday. if i recall RP was supposed to finish last in the straw poll, but we did better then expected. we are building momentum here !

 

[Nailhead]

No.... I do recall in elementary school that is was FIRST the WORST, and SECOND the BEST, and THIRD the NERD.

lol thank you for that

 

[Quantumystic]

I don't think the polls are very accurate, but I also don't think they are inaccurate by more than 15%. Especially the latest Des Moines Register poll that's locals.

Huckabee........ 32%
Romney........... 26%
McCain............. 13%
Paul................. 9%
Thompson........ 9%
Giuliani............. 5%
Undecided........ 4%

The undecided margin alone puts Paul in a tie w/ McCain for 3rd. Taking into account those who are outside the demographic, let's say we gain another 10%. That's 23%, which is higher than I think we'll do this first time out of the box especially in a state like Iowa... and still not enough to pass Romney or Huckster. But it'll make it damn close and a very good finish for the campaign.

My feeling is, for this first contest, this is a near-ideal outcome:


Romney........... 26%
Huckabee........ 24%
Paul................. 21%
McCain............. 13%
Thompson........ 9%
Giuliani............. 6%
Other............... 1%

It leaves Huckabee looking defeated after all the media hype. Romney has had so much expectation of winning after all the time and money invested, that 1st place by 2% in the mid-20s is still a "loss".

And Paul finishing 3rd w/ over 20% will be the "bombshell" of the caucuses, catapulting the campaign towards a very possible WIN in New Hampshire.