Weekender: The Von Mises Prophecy Explained

[andymillette]

http://mercenarytrader.com/2010/12/weekender-the-von-mises-prophecy-explained/

Andy

 

[hugolp]

Thanks for this. Very good read.

 

[Original_Intent]

Awesome read! Copied it over to another forum I hang out on. Thanks!

 

[hazek]

Good article.

But I dislike it very much when I see something like:

To wit: In the same way that you can’t “win” an argument with your overly emotional wife (or husband), nor can you “win” an argument with a persistently delusion-embracing market.

Except, of course, by 1) going with the flow in the near term, and 2) waiting for the longer-term “facts” to actually pan out…

When are we going to realize it's not about "winning" arguments. Human beings are not beings of reason but we are beings of emotions.

If you place a neutral person between a Keynesian politician and an Austrian politician, who do you think that person will lean to? The Keynesian who'll tell him a fairy tale about what he can give him for nothing or the preachy Austrian who will tell him it's in his best interest that he doesn't give him anything.

We have to start fighting emotions with emotions, not reason.

And the way to do that is instead of arguing with Kenyans about who is right and wrong, we make our own promises.
We can say:
- under our policies you will keep a 100% of your income!
- under our policies it will be dirt cheap to start a business!
- under our policies your rights will be protected at all times!
- under our policies your money will keep it's value and even increase it over time!
- ...

It's the only way to get the masses to convert, the only way.

 

[Original_Intent]

Good article.

But I dislike it very much when I see something like:


When are we going to realize it's not about "winning" arguments. Human beings are not beings of reason but we are beings of emotions.

If you place a neutral person between a Keynesian politician and an Austrian politician, who do you think that person will lean to? The Keynesian who'll tell him a fairy tale about what he can give him for nothing or the preachy Austrian who will tell him it's in his best interest that he doesn't give him anything.

We have to start fighting emotions with emotions, not reason.

And the way to do that is instead of arguing with Kenyans about who is right and wrong, we make our own promises.
We can say:
- under our policies you will keep a 100% of your income!
- under our policies it will be dirt cheap to start a business!
- under our policies your rights will be protected at all times!
- under our policies your money will keep it's value and even increase it over time!
- ...

It's the only way to get the masses to convert, the only way.

NO, I think he addressed it, that those who listen to the fairy tale and don;t want to be bothered with facts will soon learn the lesson when reality asserts itself as it always does.

And your argument is not going to win because all it does is promise that you can keep what you earn, that is not nearly as attractive as the something for nothing fairy tale. The only reasonable thing to do is to convince who you can and be prepared to weather the storm.

 

[hugolp]

Good article.

But I dislike it very much when I see something like:


When are we going to realize it's not about "winning" arguments. Human beings are not beings of reason but we are beings of emotions.

If you place a neutral person between a Keynesian politician and an Austrian politician, who do you think that person will lean to? The Keynesian who'll tell him a fairy tale about what he can give him for nothing or the preachy Austrian who will tell him it's in his best interest that he doesn't give him anything.

We have to start fighting emotions with emotions, not reason.

And the way to do that is instead of arguing with Kenyans about who is right and wrong, we make our own promises.
We can say:
- under our policies you will keep a 100% of your income!
- under our policies it will be dirt cheap to start a business!
- under our policies your rights will be protected at all times!
- under our policies your money will keep it's value and even increase it over time!
- ...

It's the only way to get the masses to convert, the only way.

He is not talking about policy, but about investment.

 

[andymillette]

You bet. The author is my step brother. I remember when we were in the college dorms, we would have discuss for hours the likes of Mises, Rothbard, etc...

 

[hazek]

He is not talking about policy, but about investment.

It doesn't really matter what he's talking about. My point is that we shouldn't try to win arguments to prevent these crisis. We have to fight emotions with emotions.

It's kind of like raising a kid, you don't argue with them why they are wrong and appeal to their ability to use reason as guidance

 

[hazek]

NO, I think he addressed it, that those who listen to the fairy tale and don;t want to be bothered with facts will soon learn the lesson when reality asserts itself as it always does.

Ah yes let the masses follow the fairy tales and ruin the whole country, they'll learn the truth the hard way, eventually. That's smart man, real smart Btw small problem though, it's your country too you know.

And your argument is not going to win because all it does is promise that you can keep what you earn, that is not nearly as attractive as the something for nothing fairy tale.

It's not an argument. It's an incentive and of course different people need different incentives, depends on their values..

For instance when my father raised me, he didn't argue with me about smoking or using drugs being bad for me, he just told me that it's my body, and I can do what ever I want but I shouldn't expect his help if I get sick from it and shouldn't expect to not get sick eventually and since I care about my health it worked I never started smoking even though majority of my friends did.

See? He fought my emotion of trying to fit in with the rest and be cool with a another emotion of feeling bad and getting sick and since my values cherished my health more then popularity he won.

The only reasonable thing to do is to convince who you can and be prepared to weather the storm.

Sure, you can do that. But tell me, what will happen to you, your family and your property when half the country is starving and see you having food and shelter? How do you think that's going to turn out?

Like I said, it's your country too you know.