Pulled from Wikipedia, here are the results of the Iowa Caucuses of years past for the Republicans, with a side note on the circumstances. It looks like the closest analogy we have to 2012 is 1996. Can we find out how many Democrats and Indys crossed over that year to vote in the Republican caucuses? In that year, Dole barely broke 25%. This is what PPP was alluding to when they speculated if any candidate would get above 25%. If Paul wins in a squeaker, we exceeded expectations. If he wins with 30%, mouths will be wide open everywhere. And if he wins with 35%, it will be the shot heard around the world.
2008 - This one is familiar to all of us. Bush 43's second term ends, and Obama wins the Iowa caucuses on the Democrat side with a record turnout.
Mike Huckabee (34%)
Mitt Romney (25%)
Fred Thompson (13%)
John McCain (13%)
Ron Paul (10%)
Rudy Giuliani (4%)
Duncan Hunter (1%)
2004 – George W. Bush (unopposed)
2000 - Bill Clinton's second term expires. On the Democrat side, Al Gore (63%) beats Bill Bradley (37%).
George W. Bush (41%)
Steve Forbes (31%)
Alan Keyes (14%)
Gary Bauer (9%)
John McCain (5%)
Orrin Hatch (1%)
1996 - Bill Clinton running for re-election. Unopposed.
Bob Dole (26%)
Pat Buchanan (23%)
Lamar Alexander (18%)
Steve Forbes (10%)
Phil Gramm (9%)
Alan Keyes (7%)
Richard Lugar (4%)
Morry Taylor (1%)
1992 – George H. W. Bush (unopposed)
1988 - End of Reagan's Second Term. Dick Gephardt (31%) wins on the Democrat side, with Paul Simon (27%), Michael Dukakis (22%), and Bruce Babbitt (6%) trailing.
Bob Dole (37%)
Pat Robertson (25%)
George H. W. Bush (19%)
Jack Kemp (11%)
Pierre DuPont (7%)
1984 – Ronald Reagan (unopposed)
1980 - Carter running for re-election, challenged by Ted Kennedy, who he beat 59% to 31%.
George H. W. Bush (32%)
Ronald Reagan (30%)
Howard Baker (15%)
John Connally (9%)
Phil Crane (7%)
John B. Anderson (4%)
Bob Dole (2%)
1976 – Gerald Ford and Ronald Reagan
2008 - This one is familiar to all of us. Bush 43's second term ends, and Obama wins the Iowa caucuses on the Democrat side with a record turnout.
Mike Huckabee (34%)
Mitt Romney (25%)
Fred Thompson (13%)
John McCain (13%)
Ron Paul (10%)
Rudy Giuliani (4%)
Duncan Hunter (1%)
2004 – George W. Bush (unopposed)
2000 - Bill Clinton's second term expires. On the Democrat side, Al Gore (63%) beats Bill Bradley (37%).
George W. Bush (41%)
Steve Forbes (31%)
Alan Keyes (14%)
Gary Bauer (9%)
John McCain (5%)
Orrin Hatch (1%)
1996 - Bill Clinton running for re-election. Unopposed.
Bob Dole (26%)
Pat Buchanan (23%)
Lamar Alexander (18%)
Steve Forbes (10%)
Phil Gramm (9%)
Alan Keyes (7%)
Richard Lugar (4%)
Morry Taylor (1%)
1992 – George H. W. Bush (unopposed)
1988 - End of Reagan's Second Term. Dick Gephardt (31%) wins on the Democrat side, with Paul Simon (27%), Michael Dukakis (22%), and Bruce Babbitt (6%) trailing.
Bob Dole (37%)
Pat Robertson (25%)
George H. W. Bush (19%)
Jack Kemp (11%)
Pierre DuPont (7%)
1984 – Ronald Reagan (unopposed)
1980 - Carter running for re-election, challenged by Ted Kennedy, who he beat 59% to 31%.
George H. W. Bush (32%)
Ronald Reagan (30%)
Howard Baker (15%)
John Connally (9%)
Phil Crane (7%)
John B. Anderson (4%)
Bob Dole (2%)
1976 – Gerald Ford and Ronald Reagan
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