Trump Will Lose in November - The Facts

[r3volution 3.0]

TL;DR

• Trump loses to Hillary nationally (and by a larger margin than Cruz/Rubio).
• He loses to Hillary in FL, OH, VA, IA, and NH (and by a larger margin than Cruz/Rubio, except in FL)
• More people have a "very negative" opinion of Trump than of Hillary, Cruz, or Rubio.
• Trump has a worse net favorability rating than Hillary, Cruz, or Rubio.
• More people say they would never support Trump than Hillary, Cruz, or Rubio.

Nationwide match-ups against Hillary, RCP average:
Trump loses by 6.3%
Rubio wins by 4%
Cruz wins by .8%

Florida match-ups against Hillary, RCP average:
Trump loses by 2.2%
Rubio wins by .1%
Cruz loses by 5%

Ohio match-ups against Hillary, RCP average:
Trump loses by 4%
Rubio ties
Cruz loses by 2.2%

Virginia match-ups against Hillary, RCP average:
Trump loses by 11.3%
Rubio loses by 1.3%
Cruz loses by 6.3%

Iowa match-ups against Hillary, RCP average:
Trump loses by 5%
Rubio wins by 6.6%
Cruz wins by 3.5%

New Hampshire match-ups against Hillary, RCP average:
Trump loses by 7.5%
Rubio wins by 3.5%
Cruz loses by 4.5%

Percent whose view of candidate is "very negative", from latest NBC/WSJ Poll:
Trump = 54%
Hillary = 39%
Rubio = 18%
Cruz = 28%

Net Favorability, from same poll:
Trump = -39
Hillary = -13
Rubio = -11
Cruz = -18

"Could not see self supprting," from same poll:
Trump = 67%
Hillary = 56%
Rubio = 56%
Cruz = 58%

 

[CPUd]

 

[francisco]

Trumpaloompas say: Don't cloud the issue with facts.

 

[Zippyjuan]

On the other hand, is it a 2008 repeat? An "outsider" candidate comes in to challenge the party standard bearers. He arouses great enthusiasm among people who have not voted that much in elections and brings in more voters to the party.

 

[invisible]

On the other hand, is it a 2008 repeat? An "outsider" candidate comes in to challenge the party standard bearers. He arouses great enthusiasm among people who have not voted that much in elections and brings in more voters to the party.

Yes, a repeat of having another nominee destined to lose in the general election.

 

[hankrichter12]

 

[Jan2017]

Yes, a repeat of having another nominee destined to lose in the general election.

It didn't have to be that way . . . but, alas, it is.

So persuasive.

But at least - maybe - you are starting to realize that March 2016 is NOT too early to start thinking about November 8th

 

[Slave Mentality]

All of the fake "options" listed above suck. Hillary, Cruz, Trump - we will suffer the same fate.

 

[r3volution 3.0]

All of the fake "options" listed above suck. Hillary, Cruz, Trump - we will suffer the same fate.

More or less, but Trump would be marginally worse than any of the others.

Trump < Hillary < Rubio < Cruz < kidney stones

 

[enhanced_deficit]

"Trump Will Lose in November"


OP, if this your own prediction, how certain are you out this predicton?

10%, 50%, 100% ? etc.

 

[r3volution 3.0]

"Trump Will Lose in November"

OP, if this your own prediction, how certain are you out this predicton?

10%, 50%, 100% ? etc.

Let's say 90%.

 

[Zippyjuan]

Yes, a repeat of having another nominee destined to lose in the general election.

Except Obama won. He was the popular outsider in 2008 who inspired more in his party to vote.

 

[P3ter_Griffin]

Muh polls

 

[P3ter_Griffin]

When I see a poll that polls Bernie supporters for second choice between Trump and Hillary and Trump wins it, then I'll believe it.

 

[hells_unicorn]

I don't have a dog in this race, but the polling data cited above is probably not reliable because it is measuring "likely voters", something that goes out the window if there is a larger turnout combined with poor turnout for Clinton, which seems more and more likely. People vote with their emotions, tempers are flaring, and Trump seems to have mastered the art of manipulating them.

 

[Unknown.User]

..

 

[Zippyjuan]

Iraq war is old news. Today it is M&Ms- Mexicans and Muslims. Coming to take your jobs and kids.

 

[Unknown.User]

..

 

[Unknown.User]

..

 

[r3volution 3.0]

^^^What do you think that proves?