cavalier973
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- Joined
- Dec 31, 2010
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- 338
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep.../republican_presidential_nomination-1452.html
Paul is steadily moving up in the average; he's about three points above Bachmann. Palin is currently in the number 3 position, but she's being a tease about whether she's actually going to jump in the race or not; since she's not in the race right now, though, I don't see the point in including her in the polling question. Whatever. So among those who are actually running, Paul in in third place.
From my attempts to emulate conventional wisdom, Romney will be the nominee, with one of the other candidates as his VP pick, probably Perry (to capture the votes of those Romney couldn't get on his own). This is Perry's first Prez run, and Republicans generally go for people who have had at least one previous run under their belts. Romney's bitter opponent in the '08 run, Huckabee, has come out to say that Romney is "the most electable"; that's huge.
But the conventional wisdom relies on past performance to predict future results, and I don't think that the "powers that be" in the Republican party are able to see the wide appeal of Ron Paul's candidacy, because they themselves are being myopic about what the "conservative message" is supposed to be. They have set perpetual war as the primary litmus test of a candidate's "conservative credentials"; placing it, incredibly, above the economic views of the candidate in an election cycle where the economy is most people's primary focus.
I think that Paul has a very real shot; if Bachmann drops out, then he will probably win the Iowa caucus. New Hampshire is next, and with the Free State Project folks there, I think he has a very good shot at winning in New Hampshire, too. Then on to South Carolina, where, if he wins there, will give him a boost for Super Tuesday. I'm not sure he should spend much time in Michigan; that's Romney country, and Huckabee lost momentum in 2008 by going there (and doing poorly) rather than focusing on S.C. (Also, in S.C., Fred Thompson woke up long enough to smack Huckabee around and make him drop behind McCain; this is where McCain's candidacy was saved in 2008
Well, that's all I have, for now.
Paul is steadily moving up in the average; he's about three points above Bachmann. Palin is currently in the number 3 position, but she's being a tease about whether she's actually going to jump in the race or not; since she's not in the race right now, though, I don't see the point in including her in the polling question. Whatever. So among those who are actually running, Paul in in third place.
From my attempts to emulate conventional wisdom, Romney will be the nominee, with one of the other candidates as his VP pick, probably Perry (to capture the votes of those Romney couldn't get on his own). This is Perry's first Prez run, and Republicans generally go for people who have had at least one previous run under their belts. Romney's bitter opponent in the '08 run, Huckabee, has come out to say that Romney is "the most electable"; that's huge.
But the conventional wisdom relies on past performance to predict future results, and I don't think that the "powers that be" in the Republican party are able to see the wide appeal of Ron Paul's candidacy, because they themselves are being myopic about what the "conservative message" is supposed to be. They have set perpetual war as the primary litmus test of a candidate's "conservative credentials"; placing it, incredibly, above the economic views of the candidate in an election cycle where the economy is most people's primary focus.
I think that Paul has a very real shot; if Bachmann drops out, then he will probably win the Iowa caucus. New Hampshire is next, and with the Free State Project folks there, I think he has a very good shot at winning in New Hampshire, too. Then on to South Carolina, where, if he wins there, will give him a boost for Super Tuesday. I'm not sure he should spend much time in Michigan; that's Romney country, and Huckabee lost momentum in 2008 by going there (and doing poorly) rather than focusing on S.C. (Also, in S.C., Fred Thompson woke up long enough to smack Huckabee around and make him drop behind McCain; this is where McCain's candidacy was saved in 2008
Well, that's all I have, for now.
