The parallel universe where Cruz is beating Trump
The GOP front-runner is falling short in hunt for loyal delegates, and it’s about to get worse.
By Kyle Cheney and Katie Glueck
04/27/16 12:12 AM EDT
Donald Trump has earned more than 9 million votes in the Republican primary and amassed a lead that puts him on the brink of clinching the GOP nomination. But in the shadow contest for the delegates to a contested national convention, he’s getting obliterated by Ted Cruz.
It’s halftime in the hustle for loyal convention delegates. By the weekend, more than 1,300 will have been elected in county, state or congressional district elections or selected by local Republican leaders. So far, Cruz has consistently dominated these contests, securing slots for hundreds of loyalists to the convention in Cleveland in July. Trump, on the other hand, has consistently flopped.
A Politico analysis suggests the mogul is headed for an even rougher second half, limiting his opportunities to survive a contested convention and dramatically raising the stakes of his quest to secure the nomination outright.
“It doesn’t take a brain surgeon to figure that one out,” said Stuart Jolly, Trump’s former field director, who resigned last week amid leadership changes. Jolly said his driving directive was always to win primaries to avoid having to compete in an establishment-driven delegate trench war.
“My goal was always — if you win the primary you don’t have to worry about the delegate stuff.”
Indeed, if Trump keeps winning primaries as polls suggest he will, he’ll secure enough delegates — 1,237 — to win the nomination without a contested convention. But it’s clearer than ever that this is his best — and perhaps only — shot at the nomination because of his ineffectiveness at lining up loyal delegates.
The evidence that Trump would struggle on subsequent ballots is mounting:
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