The dow is under 11,000

The last time it was below 11,000 the FRN was worth noticeably more, too... Scary.
 
It's above 11K at the moment, and will probably close above that psychologically-important number. But that's not the point - when you consider inflation, it's been going down for a long time now... The only good indicator is no significant unemployment (5.5%). If that starts to rise - then we can panic.
 
Alex Libman said:
It's above 11K at the moment, and will probably close above that psychologically-important number. But that's not the point - when you consider inflation, it's been going down for a long time now... The only good indicator is no significant unemployment (5.5%). If that starts to rise - then we can panic.
Click to expand...

The problem with the way they count unemployment is that when somebody runs out of benefits, they drop off of the sheets and thus don't show anymore.
I'll bet there are a lot more people not showing on the sheets than what is reported as being unemployed. Unemployment could be half again greater than reported.
 
Dr.3D said:
The problem with the way they count unemployment is that when somebody runs out of benefits, they drop off of the sheets and thus don't show anymore.
I'll bet there are a lot more people not showing on the sheets than what is reported as being unemployed. Unemployment could be half again greater than reported.
Click to expand...

Yeah, but total employment numbers aren't bad either (see this outdated international comparison) - it's just a few points lower now, but still well above major European economies. Not bad, especially given that America has a higher birth-rate than most countries and thus more housewives. And more millionaires! :p
 
For those considering this a good time to buy or good value, you should consider the Rule of 20. If the inflation rate plus the PE ratio is over 20, then you should not be in the market. Right now the PE of the S&P 500 is about 15.65. Inflation in the united states is at least 4% and probably higher. The Rule of 20 is pretty good but not gospel. Since our current number is about 20 or higher, I would say this market is going no where.
 
jclay2 said:
For those considering this a good time to buy or good value, you should consider the Rule of 20. If the inflation rate plus the PE ratio is over 20, then you should not be in the market. Right now the PE of the S&P 500 is about 15.65. Inflation in the united states is at least 4% and probably higher. The Rule of 20 is pretty good but not gospel. Since our current number is about 20 or higher, I would say this market is going no where.
Click to expand...

I'm fairly sure the inflation rate for this year is around/over 10% ;)
 
It's down 238 now. I wondered if 11000 was support number, so now I guess I'll find out.

The sad part is that I really don't care. I might lose everything I own, and die dirt poor in a ditch on the side of some road, but if it wakes people up and gets my children's futures back on track to freedom it's all worth it.
 
RideTheDirt said:
http://finance.google.com/finance?client=ob&q=INDEXDJX:.DJI

Currently down about 230 points:eek:
Click to expand...

Sweet! :D hehehe

Dr.3D said:
The problem with the way they count unemployment is that when somebody runs out of benefits, they drop off of the sheets and thus don't show anymore.
I'll bet there are a lot more people not showing on the sheets than what is reported as being unemployed. Unemployment could be half again greater than reported.
Click to expand...

I think they poll the people when they want to see unemployment figures, no? I don't think unemployment filings is the only indictator.

agelatc said:
It's down 238 now. I wondered if 11000 was support number, so now I guess I'll find out.

The sad part is that I really don't care. I might lose everything I own, and die dirt poor in a ditch on the side of some road, but if it wakes people up and gets my children's futures back on track to freedom it's all worth it.
Click to expand...

You'll be ok
 
JosephTheLibertarian said:
Sweet! :D hehehe



I think they poll the people when they want to see unemployment figures, no? I don't think unemployment filings is the only indictator.



You'll be ok
Click to expand...

Actually, I think Dr. 3D is correct, because I've heard exactly what he is saying from several other people...when people are off unemployment, the government just says "oh yay! They have a job! It's a happy, happy world!" and thus the figures are skewed, at best.

Though I wouldn't put it past the government to just outrightly manipulate the numbers, as well, to prevent a tanking in the markets.
 
Unemployed/underemployed

I also agree that once people "run out" of unemployment benefits, they are no longer included in the unemployed numbers that might be reported by states.

More importantly, those who take much lower-paying positions that are *underemployed* are also not counted in those unemployment figures.

For instance, I have a friend who has a Master's degree who used to work for Leo Burnett in marketing. She started working for a foreign-owned, but local, IT vendor firm for $8/hour four years ago! After four years, she got a "raise" to $12/hour. And with no insurance coverage-

If there is no "weighted average" of employees times a calculated "hourly" rate, what do raw number employment percentage increases/decreases mean at all?

Somewhere I *know* I kept a copy of a Bureau of Labor Statistcis webpage that specifically stated that *new* hire figures are built on a model.

That page specifically noted that if there are rapid market changes, their model won't show those changes for weeks.

Do you think the many store closings and financial/mortgage sector layoffs might qualify as "rapid changes" to the model?

I personally have a major problem with the fact that employment statistics do not differentiate between US citizens being hired vs. cheap *legal* foreign labor (e.g., H1-B and other visa types) being hired.

Cheap *illegal* foreign labor is even more of an issue.

Apparently, DHS recently "mandated" that foreign student visas would be extended for an additional year (as I recall). How many US students will lose access to those new-graduate jobs, as a direct result?

Also, how many Americans have been forced to train their foreign replacements to not lose their vested pension plans (e.g., Bank of America)?

Employment figures aren't worth the pixels they're displayed with-
 
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