Ok lets pretend by end of yr S& P was equal to physical gold coin ( It wont be but that is another matter). In past five years gold up 89 percent , S & P up 85 percent , US aggregate bond index up .7 percent. Now when you sell yer s&p would you like to guess your percentage of tax? s & p has averaged about ten percent since inception. From 2000 to 2023 avg new home price increase avg roughly 7 percent per yr then yer other inflation .So your ten percent ( before 40 percent capital gains taxes) is essentially 0 and then negative once taxes are figured. So nothing gained for risk. Now let us say Danke goes to the coin shop in St Paul this morning and sells a one ounce gold eagle for 2465 , puts it in his pocket and goes back to the hangar to eat donuts and see if I've brought his boat back. How much tax will he pay ?