ronpaulfollower999
Member
- Joined
- Nov 18, 2007
- Messages
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Latest info on Tropical Storm Isaac:
Official forecast:
Current watches/warnings:
Tampa radar:
Computer models:
Satellite:
5 day precipitation (thanks newbitech)
Hurricane hunters:
8/26 11 pm EDT discussion from the National Hurricane Center:
Official forecast:

Current watches/warnings:

Tampa radar:
Computer models:

Satellite:

5 day precipitation (thanks newbitech)

Hurricane hunters:

8/26 11 pm EDT discussion from the National Hurricane Center:
satellite imagery has shown an increase in the area of cold cloud tops
near the center of Isaac. However...there has not been any significant
change in organization in radar data from Key West this evening. In
fact...the aircraft fixes have been near the southeastern edge of the
convective cluster seen in both satellite and radar imagery. An earlier ship
observation and SFMR measurements of 50-55 kt supported increasing the
intensity to 55 kt on the intermediate advisory. Since that time...the aircraft
has not found any stronger winds so the initial wind speed remains unchanged.
The large scale environmental factors...warm waters...and a conducive
upper-air pattern favor strengthening during the next couple of days.
However...the lack of an inner core and large wind field could continue to be
impeding factors for significant strengthening in the short term. The NHC
intensity forecast shows a gradual increase in wind speed during the next 12
hours or so...followed by more steady strengthening. The official forecast is close
to the SHIPS/lgem guidance and the intensity consensus.
Aircraft and radar center fixes indicate that Isaac jogged westward
and slowed down this evening. However...the longer term motion is
285/12 kt. The models show Isaac turning toward the northwest into
a break in the subtropical ridge. Although the models agree on
this turn...there is an unusually large spread in the track guidance
after 24 hours. The spread of landfall locations along the northern
Gulf Coast ranges from the Texas/Louisiana border eastward to the
Alabama/Florida border with the HWRF...GFDL...and GFS near the
western edge and the UKMET and ECMWF along the eastern edge of the
envelope. Overall...the consensus has shifted a little westward
and the official forecast as been moved in that direction. The NHC
forecast is between the ECMWF and GFS ensemble means and near the
hfip multi-model consensus. Because of the very large spread in
the guidance...there continues to be greater than usual track
forecast uncertainty.
Throughout the period...it is important not to focus on the exact
forecast track due to forecast uncertainties and the fact that
significant hazards extend well away from the center.
Forecast positions and Max winds
init 27/0300z 24.2n 82.9w 55 kt 65 mph
12h 27/1200z 25.2n 84.8w 60 kt 70 mph
24h 28/0000z 26.5n 86.7w 70 kt 80 mph
36h 28/1200z 27.9n 88.3w 80 kt 90 mph
48h 29/0000z 28.9n 89.3w 85 kt 100 mph
72h 30/0000z 30.6n 90.3w 70 kt 80 mph...inland
96h 31/0000z 33.0n 91.0w 30 kt 35 mph...inland
120h 01/0000z 36.0n 91.0w 20 kt 25 mph...inland
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