SurveyUSA NC Senate Poll - Greg Brannon in 2nd at 20%

[tsai3904]

North Carolina US Senate
April 16-22, 2014
392 likely Republican primary voters
+/-5.1%

Primary

[TABLE="width: 325"]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]Apr 22[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]Mar 31[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]Mar 23[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]Mar 19[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Tillis[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]39%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]23%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]27%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]28%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Brannon[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]20%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]15%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]13%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]15%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Harris[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]15%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]11%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]9%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]6%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Grant[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]6%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]5%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]11%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Kryn[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Snyder[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]5%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Alexander[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]6%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]7%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Bradshaw[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]SE/NS[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]19%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]34%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]38%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]23%[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

40% is the cutoff needed to avoid a runoff.

 

[lib3rtarian]

Shit. Tillis is at 39%? That's really cutting it close.

 

[TheTyke]

Biting my fingernails!!! Come on NC!!

 

[jurgs01]

Shit. Tillis is at 39%? That's really cutting it close.

The NRA is spending a lot of $$ on Robocalls for Tillis.

If anyone hasn't cancelled their NRA membership and joined NAGR or GOA, then know your money is going to stifle liberty.

 

[Uriah]

That's a big jump for Tillis. 5% margin of error.

 

[erowe1]

What gave Tillis such a bump in the past 3 weeks?

 

[Brian4Liberty]

What gave Tillis such a bump in the past 3 weeks?

The establishment machine.

 

[wealeat]

That poll included ZERO voters under the age of 35. In the last one, 14% of the poll was under age 35.

Not saying it isn't accurate, it is just hard to take it seriously when our of 392 people there were none under the age of 35. Lack credibility.

 

[tsai3904]

That poll included ZERO voters under the age of 35. In the last one, 14% of the poll was under age 35.

Not saying it isn't accurate, it is just hard to take it seriously when our of 392 people there were none under the age of 35. Lack credibility.

I didn't notice that and that's a very good point. They did poll 3% of voters between 18-34 but that is still abnormal and puts the whole poll into question.

 

[Anti-Neocon]

This poll was sponsored by Civitas Institute, which is run by establishment Republicans.

Not saying there's definitely fudging involved, but I tend not to trust partisan-sponsored polling, be it PPP or Civitas.

 

[devil21]

That poll included ZERO voters under the age of 35. In the last one, 14% of the poll was under age 35.

Not saying it isn't accurate, it is just hard to take it seriously when our of 392 people there were none under the age of 35. Lack credibility.

It won't matter if those under 35 don't vote though!!!! Must turn out younger people in NC that support Greg. I think Tillis' 39% is a little too "convenient" looking. Greg has been sending out emails saying he needs cash for the final push so please donate!!

 

[Uriah]

I tend to watch averages and trends over time when it comes to polls. Let's say no one gets the requisite 40% and Brannon and Tillis are the top two, would Brannon get more support than Tillis from the supporters of other candidates?

 

[William Tell]

I tend to watch averages and trends over time when it comes to polls. Let's say no one gets the requisite 40% and Brannon and Tillis are the top two, would Brannon get more support than Tillis from the supporters of other candidates?

All bets are off once it goes to a runoff, there is no telling what will happen. It just needs to happen.

 

[ctiger2]

They'll rig it for Tillis to win. There's just now way Brannon will be allowed in the Senate.

 

[devil21]

All bets are off once it goes to a runoff, there is no telling what will happen. It just needs to happen.

Yep. Tillis is just not liked very much here. He can get votes of low-info types and establishment water-carriers in the primary but in a run-off with a lower overall turnout, he's very vulnerable.

 

[William Tell]

They'll rig it for Tillis to win. There's just now way Brannon will be allowed in the Senate.

That's what I though when Rand ran for Senate. I don't think it is all rigged.

 

[devil21]

The establishment machine.

There's definitely some truth to that since I've been seeing more Tillis tv ads lately. These results are suspect though since the last PPP poll on April 6 had Tillis at 19%. 21% jump? Naaa....not buying that. The truth probably lies somewhere in the middle so that would put Tillis 29% and Greg 18-19%.

 

[Anti-Neocon]

There's definitely some truth to that since I've been seeing more Tillis tv ads lately. These results are suspect though since the last PPP poll on April 6 had Tillis at 19%. 21% jump? Naaa....not buying that. The truth probably lies somewhere in the middle so that would put Tillis 29% and Greg 18-19%.

Have you seen any Brannon ads?

 

[Uriah]

Ads do count for polling strength. Currently Mark Jacobs has poured money into his senate race here in Iowa. He has been in the race the shortest amount of time but is polling higher than anyone else. I guess it's good to be able to self fund.

 

[devil21]

Have you seen any Brannon ads?

No I have not, however I don't keep a tv watching schedule where political ads typically are run. Ive seen a few pro-Tillis ads (usually by Rove's PAC), a few anti-Tillis ads, and a few anti-Hagan ads. They're all PAC sponsored late night spots that I see. My tv isn't on right now and this is when the ads are hot and heavy.