Someone talk to me about agriculture

[tmosley]

So, I'm thinking of diversifying into agriculture, specifically wheat, as the price of wheat has been lagging things like gold and oil (I know this because I buy flour regularly for my mother's bakery). As inflation hits prices, I would expect wheat to be the next thing to start rising precipitously, after PMs. Only problem is, I don't know squat about the sector. All I know is that flour is underpriced by at least half.

I don't like ETF's. I'd rather look at individual stocks. I'm also disinterested in trading futures. I just need a few leads so I can start my research. My Google-fu only brings up ETF's...

 

[Arklatex]

I can give you some interesting tickers... but I'd have to charge.

check out SEED and SQM

Maybe we can round up Jim Rogers in this thread. That guy likes the physical commodities. Warren Buffet scoffs and likes the companies. Would you rather own bread or the bread maker? What a question.

I like my minerals so SQM is a company I like. Agro can be raised by anyone, replenished, meanwhile a lot of minerals are finite.

Seems to me as far as stocks you have the genetics plays(monsanto) and then the agro minerals like POT.

How about Mosley we round up 5 others and start a farm.

 

[Isaac Bickerstaff]

Agricultural commodities are controlled by a monopsony. Don't count on prices going up any more than is necessary to cover farmers' rising expenses--almost.

If you want to make money on a farm, grow food instead of commodities.

 

[Original_Intent]

If you are relgious the Book of Revelation does support wheat as a good investment - if you can only figure out the timing! something about a quart of wheat costing a days wages.....I estimate thats about a 64000% increase from current prices..

 

[Icymudpuppy]

If you can keep it cold and dry and free of vermin, wheat will keep almost indefinitely in seed form. This was the purpose of the Ancient Egyptian Granaries during the famine spoken about in Genesis in the story of Joseph and the coat of many colors.

Now is an excellent time to stock up on wheat seeds which can be eaten or planted when the time is right.

Remember, Cold, Dry, and free of vermin. Cold = 50*F or less. Dry = <10% humidity. Free of vermin means no bacteria, yeast, weevils, mice etc.

 

[squarepusher]

futures!

 

[YumYum]

I don't know squat about the sector.

hmmmm..ok...so, why are you getting into something you know nothing about? Is this how you got into gold?

 

[Arklatex]

I have a feeling agro commodities are due for a big rise. The ETF DBA has been in shame over the last couple years compared to everything else, I think that's going to change soon. Jim Rogers has not been right lately on agro commodities, metals and just about EVERYTHING has outperformed his elements ETNs: RJA RJI etc.

I'm thinking about physical agro commodities, there is one that Jim Rogers really loves (just because it's cheap) that I wouldn't touch, every other commodity I'll take it with open arms. I've thought about them for a long long time and never really bought any other than PMs.. one procrastination that has been excellent. Might be buying some soon. I think inflation is going to strike. Time will tell.

 

[dannno]

hmmmm..ok...so, why are you getting into something you know nothing about? Is this how you got into gold?

He hasn't gotten into anything yet because he doesn't know much (not "nothing") about it. So he's requesting more info so he can learn before he actually does it. That should give him greater credibility in his other past decisions, not less.

 

[kpitcher]

I live in an ag heavy area. This season was a bumper crop for apples. Sadly it was also a bumper crop to leave apples rotting on the trees. I have never seen so many left hanging on a tree. The reason was the buyers - canning, juicers, etc - bought all they possibly could with the cash on hand. They had no access to credit to purchase apples so once they used the cash on hand the rest was left to rot. Wall Street didn't want to help the farmers.

If the credit crunch is going to be a continueing problem then this may be something to look into. Not a grower but a middleman. Even the local Welch co-op owned by local grape farmers, is also having issues with not being able to store enough product.

Just a suggestion - I'm not a farmer. I do know that small farmers in my area are all having a rough time. The larger ones, or the very large ones, are in a better position.