Sell AAPL, Buy Gold/Silver?

[botounami]

Hey guys. I'm looking for some guidance and hopefully some advice that will help me make my decision. I've got around 100 shares of AAPL stock that I have held for 12 years now. It's certainly my last resort in the case of financial calamity, and really the only true savings that I have.

Now more than ever I'm considering taking that money and buying 80% silver, 20% gold with it. I get more worried about the market tanking every day, and as I watch this presidential election unfold, I'm nervous. I believe what I've been reading over the past 6 years, and believe that we're approaching a serious crisis, but I have a really, really hard time pulling the trigger on this decision. What if things do, after all, work out? What if AAPL skyrockets over the next few years? What if gold and silver gets less valuable as our economy recovers? (Not a likely proposition, I know).

I'm just being honest and open here, and looking for guidance. I haven't followed the metals market as intimately as many here have, and I just have a natural reluctance to cash out now. I worry though, that if I don't, that money will simply disappear.

Cheers and thanks,
Steven

 

[youngbuck]

Here's an idea: Take 50% of that AAPL and apply it to a 60/40 Silver/Gold allocation, or the 80/20 that you mentioned.

 

[oyarde]

I would have a shot of 100 proof bourban , put half of it on black, buy silver with the rest

 

[TCE]

I'd dump it, because there is just too much that can go wrong for Apple. Gold and silver are dirt cheap right now, so get into that at least a little bit. I'm no Apple expert, but do you really believe the stock is going to jump from over $600 to, say, over $900 or $1000?

 

[brandon]

If this is your only savings, buy mutual funds.

 

[Brian4Liberty]

Hey guys. I'm looking for some guidance and hopefully some advice that will help me make my decision. I've got around 100 shares of AAPL stock that I have held for 12 years now. It's certainly my last resort in the case of financial calamity, and really the only true savings that I have.

Well, you have had a great ride then!

Standard investment advise would say that you need to diversify, and that you need to take some profits after that long of a run. You will also want to consider dollar cost averaging into any new investments. Selling a good portion of your shares in Apple might be recommended (especially before the end of the year for tax purposes). Of course you can keep some shares if you like Apple. Being in cash for the short term is not the worse thing. We could have another crash that takes down everything in the near future (including metals), and then your cash will buy more metal.

Physical metal is great. If you want to do some of your investing through a brokerage, CEF and SLW aren't bad investments. I wouldn't jump all in to anything, dollar cost average instead.

 

[Zippyjuan]

Lots of "what if's". The future is unknown but it is not usually a good idea to have your money into any one thing. Is Apple nearing a peak- hiting a limit on how many new "cool" "must have" gadgets they can produce to give their sales a boost? Or are other companies catching up and producing simliar products at lower prices than what Apple sells them for? (I saw this happen with Sony in the 1980's- they always seemed to be ahead of everybody else with cool new products- eventually the "coolness" wore off and their new products didn't sell as well). They could taper off next year or continue for several years.

Metals? Are they in an economy caused bubble (people turned to gold and silver as other investments tanked when the economic crisis kicked in and their prices soared). Has this run its course? This was also seen in the 1980's. Inflation was running high and the Fed let interest rates soar. Investors were nervous about the future and money flooded into gold and silver with the price peaking in 1980. It slowly declined for the next 23 years as the inflation rate also declined. Will that happen again if thet economy improves? Will metals go back down in price again as investors move back to other things? When will the economy improve at a faster rate (could be years)?

Nobody can answer these. Investing in either Apple or silver is placing a bet on what you think is likely to happen. Perhaps some in both. I have my biggest investment in a dividend paying utility DRIP (Dividend ReInvestment Plan).

 

[randomname]

silver is just as risky as AAPL, it's very volatile and has been moving along with the market. market tanks -> silver tanks along with it. gold less so.

what if you need the money and silver is at $15? if you can't really afford that and you're worried about the market tanking, sell now and just stay in cash / short term bonds.

 

[Zippyjuan]

Rember that bonds will move inversely with interest rates. If rates go up, the value of bonds will go down and with rates as low as they are, it won't take much uptick in rates to have a very negative impact on their value- unless you hold them until they mature. That is why I am in a dividend paying stock- still getting a return (higher than bonds offer) from the dividend and could still benefit more if stocks go higher (if the price of the stock goes higher though the dividend yield is lower since it is fixed amount and the yield is its percent of the stock price).

 

[Seraphim]

Voaltility is NOT risk. Say it again, with me => Volatility does not equal risk.

Long term investors are not subject to volatility (both upside and downside). If the plan is NOT to sell (for X amount of time,), does it matter if the price drops (even radically) for a few days/weeks/months? No.

He said he has been holding these stocks for 12 years - it sounds to me like volatility is the LEAST of his concerns.

AAPL has little upside left and consists almsot fully, of risk.

Would I sell those stocks for some hard assets? 100%. I'd sell every last AAPL stock at these levels. It's been a great ride for AAPL investors. Those who got in early, should get out now.

silver is just as risky as AAPL, it's very volatile and has been moving along with the market. market tanks -> silver tanks along with it. gold less so.

what if you need the money and silver is at $15? if you can't really afford that and you're worried about the market tanking, sell now and just stay in cash / short term bonds.

 

[mello]

I think it would be a bad time to sell. I have 136 shares that I bought @ $51 & we are on the cusp of a rally. Apple has a tendency to have more dramatic swings than other companies. I think it partially has to do with analysts that try to manipulate the stock with the stories they put out. The reality though is that Apple has a lot of room to grow.

The Apple/Samsung lawsuit released some interesting Apple sales info when it came to the iPhone. When a new iPhone is released, it has sold as many as all of the previous generations combined. Using that as a yardstick, Apple will sell around 250 MILLION iPhone 5's. The second thing to factor is China. They are total brand whores when it comes to Apple. The 5 Apple stores in China generated something like 16% of Apple's sales. Again, that was only from FIVE STORES!. Currently the iPhone is not even sold by China Mobile the #1 cell phone provider. Their installed user base is 650 MILLION PEOPLE which is more than twice the population of the U.S. The new iPad Mini is going to crush any momentum that the Kindle or Nexus has generated & it will be a huge seller in the education market. And another thing to think about is that more than 50% of Apple sales are from foreigners. Say our purchasing power gets crushed, the purchasing power of China's RMB will go up which will make Apple products more affordable to the Chinese. I'd wait a year or two before selling because I think the stock could easily reach somewhere between $850-$1,000. Buy gold & silver with your profits.

 

[Brian4Liberty]

I think it would be a bad time to sell. I have 136 shares that I bought @ $51 & we are on the cusp of a rally. Apple has a tendency to have more dramatic swings than other companies. I think it partially has to do with analysts that try to manipulate the stock with the stories they put out. The reality though is that Apple has a lot of room to grow.

The Apple/Samsung lawsuit released some interesting Apple sales info when it came to the iPhone. When a new iPhone is released, it has sold as many as all of the previous generations combined. Using that as a yardstick, Apple will sell around 250 MILLION iPhone 5's. The second thing to factor is China. They are total brand whores when it comes to Apple. The 5 Apple stores in China generated something like 16% of Apple's sales. Again, that was only from FIVE STORES!. Currently the iPhone is not even sold by China Mobile the #1 cell phone provider. Their installed user base is 650 MILLION PEOPLE which is more than twice the population of the U.S. The new iPad Mini is going to crush any momentum that the Kindle or Nexus has generated & it will be a huge seller in the education market. And another thing to think about is that more than 50% of Apple sales are from foreigners. Say our purchasing power gets crushed, the purchasing power of China's RMB will go up which will make Apple products more affordable to the Chinese. I'd wait a year or two before selling because I think the stock could easily reach somewhere between $850-$1,000. Buy gold & silver with your profits.

A fan of Apple but not of diversification?

If we want to get into Apple's future, I can tell you that I and others I know have all gone from iPhones to Galaxys, and are not thinking about going back. Apple is no longer the leader in smart phones.

 

[mello]

A fan of Apple but not of diversification?

If we want to get into Apple's future, I can tell you that I and others I know have all gone from iPhones to Galaxys, and are not thinking about going back. Apple is no longer the leader in smart phones.

Apple was never the leader in the smartphone market. It does get the lion's share of the profits though. Also, the AppStore is second to none. I have 30gb of apps on my iPhone. I don't know what the competition could come up with for me to justify tossing my iPhone & starting all over in a new ecosystem. I also know quite a few Android users that regretted their cellphone purchase.

As for diversification, beside my Apple stock, I've got a nice stash of kruggerands & 1oz silver coins in my safety deposit box. I invest in what I know.

 

[DFF]

I would take some profits now because AAPL has made a huge move and the S&P is approaching a 10-year-in-the-making triple top.

Regarding gold/silver...lotta, lotta upside...especially silver...

 

[ronpaulfollower999]

You never go broke taking a profit.

 

[botounami]

You guys are playing out the internal dialogue in my head!

I know that there is certainly profit to be made, but Apple is also paying a decent dividend at this time. I also do think it will at least maintain its current position, and expect it to grow during the holiday season. My problem is that I'm just not as familiar with the swings and bubbles that precious metals seem to be all about. If there's a wholesale currency collapse, will gold/silver actually be worth having? Will anyone want it?

I fear the lack of diversity, which you guys rightly bring up. I don't want to pay that damn capital gains tax either though. Do you guys think Apple is something that can be held for the long haul?

 

[oyarde]

Stock Market is liable to start tanking between now and July, look for no growth in early 2013.

 

[mello]

You guys are playing out the internal dialogue in my head!

I know that there is certainly profit to be made, but Apple is also paying a decent dividend at this time. I also do think it will at least maintain its current position, and expect it to grow during the holiday season. My problem is that I'm just not as familiar with the swings and bubbles that precious metals seem to be all about. If there's a wholesale currency collapse, will gold/silver actually be worth having? Will anyone want it?

I fear the lack of diversity, which you guys rightly bring up. I don't want to pay that damn capital gains tax either though. Do you guys think Apple is something that can be held for the long haul?

The only way that I would sell my gold & silver is if a balance budget amendment passed & they shut down the Fed. But since I'd have a better shot at a threesome with Victoria's Secret models, I'll be holding on to my gold & silver for a very...long......time.

 

[oyarde]

I think Mello has calculated his odds, correctly .

 

[2young2vote]

You can just look at some charts. Not that long ago gold was nearly $2000 and ounce and it has now dropped to about $1700. Silver was $18 about 2-3 years ago and doubled a year ago, but has fallen back to the high twenties lately (with a rally in the last couple of weeks pushing it past the $30 mark).

Gold and silver are volatile. I purchased Silver at $30 per ounce and need to hit $34 to break even, so right now i have a net loss on my investment. But i'm holding it for the long term so these slight ups and downs don't truly affect me.

I was reading AAPL's financial statements and I am by no means knowledgeable in investment, but I personally don't think any company should have a value that is 6 or more times its revenue. It just doesn't make any sense, espeicaly considering apple only has maybe 10 product lines with a few variations in each line. I tend to lean on the safe side, and I wouldn't be investing in AAPL. I just don't know that they can keep this momentum up for 10+ years.