Ron's biggest movement on intrade is in this category:

[sailingaway]

Ron Paul to win one (or more) Republican primary/caucus in 2012

https://www.intrade.com/graphing/js...actId=751529&tradeURL=https://www.intrade.com

It was in the 20s yesterday, I believe.

http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/?searchQuery=ron+paul

 

[realtonygoodwin]

53% now, right?

 

[bluesc]

53% now, right?

Looks like 70%.

 

[JoshLowry]

Too wonky/volatile/riggable

If you're going to talk numbers about Paul, stick with referencing fundraising numbers from troops and >20% poll numbers in IA/NH.

 

[sailingaway]

Too wonky/volatile/riggable

If you're going to talk numbers about Paul, stick with referencing fundraising numbers from troops and >20% poll numbers in IA/NH.

there was another thread on intrade, and I agree it is riggable, but I don't think we are rigging it or it would be higher. That is went up for RON who doesn't have Rothschilds etc behind him is what I'm finding interesting.

 

[realtonygoodwin]

Still shows 53% for me... hmmmm..

 

[jclay2]

there was another thread on intrade, and I agree it is riggable, but I don't think we are rigging it or it would be higher. That is went up for RON who doesn't have Rothschilds etc behind him is what I'm finding interesting.

It is only riggable to an extent. People are using their own hard earned money to make these bets. If stuff starts getting to out of wack, volume will start surging as people see opportunities to make money. Nevertheless, the volatility and illiquidity of some markets make it "riggable" I guess.

 

[damiengwa]

 

[Jandrsn21]

Want a SURE bet and make some money for the campaign!

 

[InTradePro]

https://www.intrade.com/graphing/js...actId=751529&tradeURL=https://www.intrade.com


It was in the 20s yesterday, I believe.

http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/?searchQuery=ron+paul

This has no activity and so won't be accurate. Ignore minor markets for that reason.
Stick to the who is going to be the GOP nomination that's where the real activity(and money) is.

 

[JoshLowry]

This has no activity and so won't be accurate. Ignore minor markets for that reason.
Stick to the who is going to be the GOP nomination that's where the real activity(and money) is.

Why should we reference their numbers if someone with lots of cash could heavily sway the numbers (and public opinion) in their favor?

 

[aSwedishSupporter]

One can not bet more than $250 per account.
Intrade has low liquidity and cannot be "trusted" with any precision. But todays great fall in Gingrich likelyhood to win Iowa, I think that shows that people reevaluate his chances, that sentiment has changed. I think such changes show faster on Intrade than in published polls. I think that we can see on Intrade during the debate who is winning it! But polls may have greater precision, at least with respect for the selection of people they interview (we hope that many independents will vote for Ron Paul who do not participate in polls)