Ron Paul to Win Iowa up 5-percent on Intrade, Now 50-Percent

[KingNothing]

Ron's blowing away the field now in Iowa on Intrade:
http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=749798

 

[DRV45N05]

The newsletter probably scared a lot of investors and modelers. But generally, it doesn't seem to be taking the media by storm- certainly not to the degree that Cain's, Perry's, or Gingrich's slipups have. Plus, he is getting positive out of Iowa this week.

 

[hazek]

I can't wait for the next poll to come out.. Only then we'll know for sure if we're still in an upward trend of if the media attack have had an effect.

 

[Agorism]

I find it odd that his odds went up after that rasmussen poll since he was -5 in that one. You'd think he would have edged down a bit since that was last poll we saw.

Ron Paul to win the 2012 Iowa Caucus

Event: Iowa Caucus (Republican)
49.7%
CHANCE Predict

Mitt Romney to win the 2012 Iowa Caucus

Event: Iowa Caucus (Republican)
29.4%
CHANCE Predict

Newt Gingrich to win the 2012 Iowa Caucus

Event: Iowa Caucus (Republican)
9.5%
CHANCE Predict

Rick Santorum to win the 2012 Iowa Caucus

Event: Iowa Caucus (Republican)
5.4%

 

[ross11988]

MAybe a good poll is coming out today?

 

[bluesc]

How far we've come since '07.

 

[Esoteric]

The intrade market has been confusing me. I was sure it would take a hit after all this, but it's been a pleasant surprise to see it rise.

 

[Sola_Fide]

How far we've come since '07.

What an example that one man standing on principle can change the world.

 

[bluesc]

What an example that one man standing on principle can change the world.

It's inspiring.

 

[matt0611]

Good, we need to put more work into NH now don't you think? We're still quite behind.

 

[sailingaway]

I find it odd that his odds went up after that rasmussen poll since he was -5 in that one. You'd think he would have edged down a bit since that was last poll we saw.

But it was higher than the PRIOR Rasmussen poll. He always did better than their polls. His RCP average went UP after the Rasmussen poll because it replaced a lower Rasmussen poll.

I agree we need to work on NH, but Iowa is nowhere near in the bag. Romney's organization is more invisible because he had all those voter contacts from last time, but it is very very real, and there are a lot of others in play. I don't know what Bachmann, Santorum and Huntsman not even being able to qualify for the Virginia ballot will mean for them, if anything. I haven't seen much discussion of that (or any) in Iowa media yet.

 

[green73]