Ron Paul: In it to Win it

[1stAmendguy]

http://communities.washingtontimes....tical-pro-con/2012/jan/29/ron-paul-it-win-it/

Good article. Spread this part around:

Along with establishment candidate Mitt Romney, Ron Paul is the only candidate who was able to get on the ballot in all fifty states. Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum will not get enough delegates from the states they have qualified for to receive the Republican nomination. Rick Santorum still has very poor name recognition, and Newt Gingrich is one of the most polarizing political figures of our generation , and he could not even get on the ballot in his home state. In other words, Mitt Romney and Ron Paul are the only electable candidates to choose from.

 

[tennman]

I like what it says. But I thought even with the states Gingrich didn't get on that there was still enough to win.

 

[zadrock]

I like what it says. But I thought even with the states Gingrich didn't get on that there was still enough to win.

I thought there were over 500 delegates that he could not get because he isn't on the ballot. Additionally, factor in that every state before April 1 is proportional (except FL), which means he will be falling short in total delegates, even if he wins every state between now and then.

We do need someone to do a detailed analysis of delegates with realistic assumptions for how he will do through the end of March and then make the (ridiculous) assumption that he wins every winner-take-all state after that and see if he can win.

If Romney wins FL, that's a pretty big nail in Newt's coffin, as those 50 delegates go bye-bye.

 

[lakefx]

I thought there were over 500 delegates that he could not get because he isn't on the ballot. Additionally, factor in that every state before April 1 is proportional (except FL), which means he will be falling short in total delegates, even if he wins every state between now and then.

We do need someone to do a detailed analysis of delegates with realistic assumptions for how he will do through the end of March and then make the (ridiculous) assumption that he wins every winner-take-all state after that and see if he can win.

If Romney wins FL, that's a pretty big nail in Newt's coffin, as those 50 delegates go bye-bye.

Gingrich would have to win more states than Romney, of the available ones to newt, and then Romney would have to endorse Gingrich. Both of those are unlikely. Newt is toast without some major meltdown by the Romney Campaign. I would still think Romney supporters would back 'Anyone but Gingrich' while Newt supporters would back "Anyone but Romney" Santorum is simply backed up by a brand of Evangelicals who would vote for anyone with a Jesus tatoo
on their forehead.

+ NOBP

Ron Paul is the solution!

 

[zadrock]

Are we agreed that thegreenpapers.com is the best source for info on delegates and such? I think I'll throw together a spreadsheet with a few different assumptions and see what I come up with.

 

[tennman]

But with the way Newt is treating Mitt and their back and forth, I can't see Romney endorsing him. I see Romney endorsing Paul out of spite and because I think Romney genuinely likes Ron Paul. But again, Romney is in it to win it to and I don't see him even being in a spot where I would make sense to drop out.

Paul needs to win some states. That's the bottom line.

 

[Highstreet]

Great article!!

 

[tennman]

But with the way Newt is treating Mitt and their back and forth, I can't see Romney endorsing him. I see Romney endorsing Paul out of spite and because I think Romney genuinely likes Ron Paul. But again, Romney is in it to win it to and I don't see him even being in a spot where I would make sense to drop out.

Paul needs to win some states. That's the bottom line.

 

[Feelgood]

Ron Paul = Our Plan