We recently received the following contribution from one of our outstanding readers. We have been reflecting on how to report it. The reason for the hesitation is that we don't believe "straw polls" or self-select polls such as those at Beaufort County Now and the WDN are meaningful because they are not based on a representative sample. Thus, our sense is that they are misleading to the average reader who does not know who is being polled. So read on with care.
GOP Senate candidate Dr. Greg Brannon handily won the straw poll among delegates and alternates attending the First Congressional District Republican convention held Saturday. Brannon took 53% of the vote, followed by Ted Alexander at 17%, Mark Harris at 16% and Thom Tillis at 14%.
This is Brannon's second major win among GOP delegates at a recent eastern congressional district Republican convention. On the preceding weekend, Brannon won the Third Congressional District Republican convention straw poll with 59% of the vote, followed by Thom Tillis at 24%, and others at 17%. Congressman Walter Jones also handily won that straw poll over Taylor Griffin.
In the First District straw poll for Congress, Arthur Rich edged out Brent Shypulefski by 51% to 49%. For Supreme Court Chief Justice. Mark Martin received 95% of the vote to 5% for Ola Lewis.
In the straw poll for 2016 GOP Presidential nomination, First District delegates preferred Senator Rand Paul at 20%, followed by former Gov. Mike Huckabee at 15%, Governor Scott Walker at 13%, Senator Ted Cruz at 13%, former Governor Jeb Bush at 9%, Governor Bobby Jindal at 7%, Governor Chris Christie at 6%, and others at 17%.
The convention also adopted resolutions to be presented to the state GOP convention, and filled three at-large seats on the state and district GOP executive committees, which were won by Emily Walker, Jerry Schill, and Ronald Cherry. The First Congressional District is made up of all or parts of twenty four counties. Beaufort County is split between the First and Third Districts.
We think the straw polls from the Republican Congressional District Conventions are very significant, not because of the accuracy that might be assumed in predicting the outcome of the elections, but more for what it portends for the future of the Republican Party, depending on the actual results on Election Night. Here's why.
These straw polls reflect the thinking of a very select group of people. People who attend Congressional District Conventions are the most active participants in their respective political parties. They take a day out of their busy lives and pay their own way, often having to drive quite some distance. They often sit and debate and listen to long speeches that make little real difference in the long run, and make almost no difference because of what is said or done in the meeting itself. It's the classic case of "after all was said and done, a lot more was said than done." It would be rare to be able to find one of the attendees who could, six months later, tell you much at all about what was done that mattered to the average person.
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So what is important about the information in the above reports is that it depicts the thinking of the most active and involved members of the Republican Party.
Now review the numbers again and if you did not detect it in the first reading we would suggest that what the numbers show is a remarkable shift to the conservative side of politics in these districts among Republicans. "Brannon took 53% of the vote, followed by Ted Alexander at 17%, Mark Harris at 16% and Thom Tillis at 14%." In the First District and "Brannon won the Third Congressional District Republican convention straw poll with 59% of the vote, followed by Thom Tillis at 24%, and others at 17%. Congressman Walter Jones also handily won that straw poll over Taylor Griffin. In the First District straw poll for Congress, Arthur Rich edged out Brent Shypulefski by 51% to 49%. For Supreme Court Chief Justice. Mark Martin received 95% of the vote to 5% for Ola Lewis." That, in our opinion is about as solidly conservative as you get.
So what we think significant is not whether the vote on May 6 will reflect a similar pattern, but rather what this message says to the Establishment Republican leadership in Raleigh. Clearly their man (Tillis) is not the choice of the grassroots activities that get out the vote at the local level. And as Tip O'Neal is reported to have once said "all politics is local."
