Reading polls and how to win NH

[Bradley in DC]

Ok, it's the final hour but lots of people make up their mind then or are open to changing it.

Despite the criticism of the polls I'm posting, I do this so that we have more and better information. What do they tell us? Well, the official campaign doesn't know how to win elections, but we knew that already. What else?

Identifying supporters and turning them out to vote wins elections. Do NOT rely on the official campaign "gee, what happened to our hard drive with all of the election day data" staff anymore.

Look at the polls, especially the crosstabs. This is going to vary widely in different states. In NH, half of all Republicans are going to be firstly basing their vote in favor of a candidate who "stands up for their beliefs." As wrong as McCain is about 100 years, they like that he's standing up for his beliefs. (I'm not saying this is good, but we need to face reality, get as much information as we can, formulate a good strategy and work hard to pull it off.).

Happily, we have a candidate known for standing up for his beliefs in Dr. Paul. So, ignore petty attack or comparison ads and arguments. RIGHT NOW for as long as you can in NH, get out this message! Dr. No stands up for his beliefs. Spin that into EVERY discussion you can.

Or, we can complain we don't want to hear bad news, whine "the polls are rigged" and waste time typing "FU Frank" and delude ourselves into thinking the problem is vote fraud not the official campaign's ineptness. Even Jim Condit, Jr., would disagree with you...

EDIT: How to win elections

"Everyone else is inconsistent in their views. Our challenge is to find the issues where we agree with each person, get them understand the principle by which they came to that understanding, and urge them to apply that principle more broadly."

Rating NH pollsters

Later edit: In a sense, we've already won.

 

[thoughtbombing]

One of the polls, specifically the FOX POLL was of Dems for the Republican candidate.. and RON PAUL was losing... uh... 6,000 posts, and all of the sudden becoming a troll?

 

[Greg in VA]

I really wish the campaign had brought you aboard. I will probably be accussed of being a Bradley in DC fanboy, but you have been right more often than not. Too bad too much emphasis is placed on Faux News and hey we chased Hannity...good for a youTube laugh, useless for winning an election.

 

[Greg in VA]

One of the polls, specifically the FOX POLL was of Dems for the Republican candidate.. and RON PAUL was losing... uh... 6,000 posts, and all of the sudden becoming a troll?

The truth hurts, and there was nothing trollish about Bradley in DCs post. If you are up in NH do something useful. If I were not bound to Virginia and my family I would be up there right now.

 

[raystone]

thanks Bradley !

 

[Greg in VA]

Bradley in DC -

you mentioned that the crosstabs are where the useful data is has anyone gone forward with putting together a list of key parameters of attributes/characteristics that voters have keyed on as being critical. For example you had mentioned "stands up for their beliefs" as a key variable. It might be useful to go through an analysis of all prior cross tab polls from Iowa to know to come up with some key talking points, then start up a grass roots effort to disseminate those talking points and how Dr. Paul scores on them. Such as the Dr. No monikor for "stands up for their beliefs" and his consistent voting record while in congress.

 

[Bradley in DC]

thanks Bradley !

Thanks for the prodding me to give an explanation. Always listen to what I mean, not necessarily to what I say. :o

Usually, it's always so clear (in my head ) what my purpose is when I make posts but I need to do a better job explaining myself it seems.

 

[gagnonstudio]

Polls are fine, I don't think they are rigged. I think they may underestimate our true support, but not rigged. I don't think your posts are very helpful at this point in the game. You may mean well, but you may also demotivate people because of the low poll numbers. This time of the game is about being as positive as possible, trying to focus on good news, and motivating people.

Polls are a very bad MSM tool. They direct the way the country thinks, and I think you focus way too much on them. They should only do a few polls a year, and let the campaigns poll internally. Because the majority of the population bases their opinions on who is leading in the polls. It is just a psychological thing, a majority of people are conformists, and will follow the majority.

Although I don't think polls are rigged, I am 100% against these polls. They aren't motivating if you are low in the polls. But if you have strong grassroots, like us, you can still win elections by high motivation and large turnout.

From what I've seen in the past. Most of your posts are about the low poll numbers. I know you like polls, but I don't think your posts are helpful to the grassroots. Especially the night before the actual vote.

 

[NeoconPaulsupporter]

Huh? Every candidate is pushing the "Stands up for his beliefs" schtick. You don't think McCain supporters believe they're voting for a consistent guy? They damn sure do. Right now each candidate's supporters are telling people the same thing, "Our guy is principled and stands up for his beliefs!" We NEED comparison ads, if "stands up for his beliefs" is an important factor.

 

[Bradley in DC]

Bradley in DC -

you mentioned that the crosstabs are where the useful data is has anyone gone forward with putting together a list of key parameters of attributes/characteristics that voters have keyed on as being critical. For example you had mentioned "stands up for their beliefs" as a key variable. It might be useful to go through an analysis of all prior cross tab polls from Iowa to know to come up with some key talking points, then start up a grass roots effort to disseminate those talking points and how Dr. Paul scores on them. Such as the Dr. No monikor for "stands up for their beliefs" and his consistent voting record while in congress.

Greg, we don't have national elections. What I'm trying to do is get people here to understand HOW we CAN win these elections. The processes will be the same, but the results are going to be different in every state. People in Iowa and New Hampshire and other states are all going to be different and deciding for whom to vote differently.

Everyone needs to do the same analyses for their own states. Read as many polls as possible, glean as much information as possible, look at the reputations and histories of each pollster and do your best.

 

[LibertiORDeth]

Wow bradly has more posts per day then me!
Rock on!

 

[Bradley in DC]

I don't think your posts are very helpful at this point in the game. You may mean well, but you may also demotivate people because of the low poll numbers. This time of the game is about being as positive as possible, trying to focus on good news, and motivating people.

I respectfully disagree. As it stands now, we're going to have two strikes against us (and that's giving a free pass to the official campaign in Wyoming). We need to cut the conspiracy crap, stop making excuses for the official campaign staff, start learning from our mistakes, learn how to win, work hard and make it happen. Only then can we do this.

From what I've seen in the past. Most of your posts are about the low poll numbers. I know you like polls, but I don't think your posts are helpful to the grassroots. Especially the night before the actual vote.

Most of my posts have been trying to focus the grassroots away from "fun" things towards those that get Dr. Paul the nomination: how to get on the ballot, how to win delegates, how to learn from polls how to win elections, what are the RNC rules governing the convention, etc.

 

[gagnonstudio]

I respectfully disagree. As it stands now, we're going to have two strikes against us (and that's giving a free pass to the official campaign in Wyoming). We need to cut the conspiracy crap, stop making excuses for the official campaign staff, start learning from our mistakes, learn how to win, work hard and make it happen. Only then can we do this.

I'm not big on the conspiracy theory stuff, nor do I think the campaign is all that competent, and I don't make excuses for them. I haven't implied that ever.

It's great to learn from mistakes, learn how to win, and all of that. This should have been done long ago. You posting polls the night before the election doesn't do anything at all. This forum is about "Winning New Hampshire" not "lets show some poll numbers the night before the election." I don't think we should be overconfident but we should be highly motivated today and tomorrow. This doesn't motivate people.

Please explain to me how posting these poll numbers is supposed to help us win tomorrow. And explain how it doesn't demoralize people the day before votes are cast.

 

[thoughtbombing]

The truth hurts, and there was nothing trollish about Bradley in DCs post. If you are up in NH do something useful. If I were not bound to Virginia and my family I would be up there right now.

I've got a 15 phone bank making automated calls to New Hampshire for the last 3 days... 65,000 calls in 3 days, 12 hours per day. Each of those calls runs a specific message, based on the location of the voter as determined by their PHONE PREFIX, which gives the location of the polls and depending on their REGISTRATION a specific, brief message.

Independent voters, it's all about freedom and ending the war.

Republicans, it's all about taxes and small government.

I spent a few weeks in New Hampshire recently, but motherfuckers have to eat and work. I'm doing what I can... at the end of the calls, I give an 800 number to call us and report how the precincts are doing, report fraud, report anything, give us poll numbers, so we can actually beat the media in Calling New Hampshire and get directly to HQ if there is any problem.

Don't assume that everyone who posts in this subforum is from New Hampshire.. I hope NOONE from New Hampshire is posting in this forum.

 

[Zack]

Paul's negatives are always going to be exceptionally high among the people these polls are aimed at. The polls tell us something about the campaign, but not in the sense that they predict the outcome.

If we can't get ABSURD amounts of under the radar votes, then we won't win the nomination. By under-the-radar, I mean newly registered republicans, independents, and/or insanely high turnout. These numbers can't be reflected by the kinds of polling that's going on. So, either:

A) the pre-election polls will be low and the final tally will be low (IA)

or,

B) the pre-election polls will be low but the final tally will be almost miraculously high, relatively speaking.

but not:

C) the pre-election polls and final tally will both be super-duper, yay!

 

[Bradley in DC]

I'm not big on the conspiracy theory stuff, nor do I think the campaign is all that competent, and I don't make excuses for them. I haven't implied that ever.

Please explain to me how posting these poll numbers is supposed to help us win tomorrow. And explain how it doesn't demoralize people the day before votes are cast.

Those comments weren't directed at you personally, sorry, just venting at so much nonsense on this forum. My apologies.

As I tried to explain, we need to face realities, stop doing what doesn't work, etc. In this case, there is information here on how we can improve our standing in NH--and more importantly, hopefully people will learn HOW to win in their states and get active.

 

[robatsu]

Most of my posts have been trying to focus the grassroots away from "fun" things towards those that get Dr. Paul the nomination: how to get on the ballot, how to win delegates, how to learn from polls how to win elections, what are the RNC rules governing the convention, etc.

Bradley knows exactly what he is talking about, as unpleasant as that may be to some. As fun as it is chasing Hannity down the sidewalk or ambushing talk show hosts, retail politics wins events. Me, I've been disturbed by a adolescent/nihilistic element that has developed as the movement has grown. Perhaps this is fueled by the "revolution" rhetoric, but this does not help at all with gaining Republican voters, which, hard as it is to understand for some, is what you have to do to win the Republican nomination. Indies/crossovers help, but Republicans are going to select their nominee.

 

[Bradley in DC]

We need 10% for any NH delegates, right?

Can someone confirm if this is correct? If so, please, please, please, read the polls yourselves or just trust me and take my advice if we're going to make the cut off and win ANY delegates tomorrow.

If not, and the official campaign can spend millions for zero delegates and heads still don't roll...

 

[justatrey]

I agree 100% we will not win so long as the polls show us near the bottom. We need support from traditional Republican voters.

There isn't anything in terms of Ron Paul's character, history, or his policy positions that are in the way from us getting it. The lack of name recognition and the public's perception that he can't win are our biggest obstacles. These can both come if we can just find a way to keep making progress - it starts by getting fourth or third place finishes ahead of bigger names like Huck, McCain, and Giuliani. It all builds momentum. It will get to a point that the MSM cannot ignore him without losing credibility. People will really notice when CNN has a 15% third place unlabled hole in one of their pie charts. They can only pull that shit for so long.

My parents are both in their 60's and longtime Republicans. They had never heard of Ron Paul until I introduced them to him a few weeks ago. All it took was for me to show them the facts: Christian, pro-life, pro-Just War Theory, pro-constitution, honest, never voted to raise taxes, etc. Its not that hard. There are plenty of hardcore Republicans just waiting to find out about him.

 

[Bradley in DC]

If you don't live in IA, WY or NH,

read as many state polls for your state as possible and find out who is likely to vote and what motivates different people in your state to vote. Learn what issues (it might be "character" issues or "policy" issues that move voters) are important to voters in your state. Which demographics (age, income, party affiliation, etc.,) are interested in which issues and messages? What is the best message for those? With which candidates are we in competition for what moves voters? In NH it's "standing up for beliefs" voters that are debating between McCain and Paul (and flocking to McCain or even Obama).

If you need to do an attack on another candidate, even a comparison one, do it NOW for Super Tuesday states. After next week, please stay positive. Negative ads late in the game suppress turnout. We need to give people a reason to vote FOR Dr. Paul during the last two weeks or so of the campaign in each state.

We have 47 more states to win after tomorrow.