This is as of yesterday. I took a picture of the map they have at: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map.html
Then I added numbers for the RCP averages for each state in the toss-up and leans categories. Question mark means there is no average and probably no recent polling either so I just grabbed the last or average of a couple of the latest polls. Two question marks means hasn't been any polling since like last year so no real numbers for the state (not sure how they put it in the grouping then, but anyways).
Few new polls out today:
Florida: Romney vs. Obama Quinnipiac Obama 45, Romney 41 Obama +4 (Didn't show up in poll list, no change in RCP average)
Ohio: Romney vs. Obama Quinnipiac Obama 47, Romney 38 Obama +9
Pennsylvania: Romney vs. Obama Quinnipiac Obama 45, Romney 39 Obama +6 (Didn't show up in poll list, no change in RCP average)
Arizona: Romney vs. Obama Rasmussen Reports Romney 54, Obama 41 Romney +13
Change in RCP Average:
Ohio: +1.6 O (1.0 to 2.6 for Obama)
Arizona: +2.1 R (4.7 to 6.8, moved to leans Romney)
Obama definitely has an advantage on the electoral map. If he nabs the 29 Florida votes he has the nomination pretty locked up as he'd only need another 20 of the remaining 107 electoral votes (removing Arizona from the toss up section and giving each their leaning states). Obama has a ton of money so he really just needs to focus on Florida and a few other states in the toss up category with lighter advertising in the others. Too bad we don't have any data on Paul. If he gets the nomination that would seriously shake things up. If Romney gets it his chances of winning seem pretty slim at the moment.
I did this because I think it's interesting and because if you can show the weak Romney support how bad his chances of winning are they'll be a little more open to alternatives. He's a pretty weak candidate and they seem to be setting him up for a loss. Show more die hard Republicans they're backing a loser and try to get them looking for alternatives without pushing Ron Paul (unless they've already shown themselves more open to that option).
Then I added numbers for the RCP averages for each state in the toss-up and leans categories. Question mark means there is no average and probably no recent polling either so I just grabbed the last or average of a couple of the latest polls. Two question marks means hasn't been any polling since like last year so no real numbers for the state (not sure how they put it in the grouping then, but anyways).
Few new polls out today:
Florida: Romney vs. Obama Quinnipiac Obama 45, Romney 41 Obama +4 (Didn't show up in poll list, no change in RCP average)
Ohio: Romney vs. Obama Quinnipiac Obama 47, Romney 38 Obama +9
Pennsylvania: Romney vs. Obama Quinnipiac Obama 45, Romney 39 Obama +6 (Didn't show up in poll list, no change in RCP average)
Arizona: Romney vs. Obama Rasmussen Reports Romney 54, Obama 41 Romney +13
Change in RCP Average:
Ohio: +1.6 O (1.0 to 2.6 for Obama)
Arizona: +2.1 R (4.7 to 6.8, moved to leans Romney)
Obama definitely has an advantage on the electoral map. If he nabs the 29 Florida votes he has the nomination pretty locked up as he'd only need another 20 of the remaining 107 electoral votes (removing Arizona from the toss up section and giving each their leaning states). Obama has a ton of money so he really just needs to focus on Florida and a few other states in the toss up category with lighter advertising in the others. Too bad we don't have any data on Paul. If he gets the nomination that would seriously shake things up. If Romney gets it his chances of winning seem pretty slim at the moment.
I did this because I think it's interesting and because if you can show the weak Romney support how bad his chances of winning are they'll be a little more open to alternatives. He's a pretty weak candidate and they seem to be setting him up for a loss. Show more die hard Republicans they're backing a loser and try to get them looking for alternatives without pushing Ron Paul (unless they've already shown themselves more open to that option).
