Possible of sub $20 silver?

[Lord Xar]

Your thoughts, and if so - good to buy, or do you feel it could go way down?

 

[ronpaulfollower999]

I'm waiting to see what happens this summer. I've been thinking sub-$20 silver by July for at least a week now.

 

[Jordan]

100%.

Retail money hates holding losses. They love to sell!

Lots of investment interest to shake out!

 

[pmbug]

If OP is referring to spot price, who knows.

If Jordan is referring to retail of physical, then lol. Have you tried to buy physical silver Jordan? You are all over the gold/silver threads, but it doesn't seem like you have ever bought any. Premiums on physical silver are exploding. Silver Eagles, if you can find them, are running ~20% premium right now.

 

[Seraphim]

It will go sub 20$ if this turn out to be a banking/soverign crisis that erupts like 2007. That will be a deflationary crash across the board and it looks like that is what is coming up.

Good luck finding much of the metal once that happens, strong hands are already moving in to buy up as much sub 25$ as possible.

Once policy response kicks in, it's off "to the moon".

Print, print print. There's no other option outside of outright defaults and that will not be aloud to happen.

 

[Jordan]

If OP is referring to spot price, who knows.

If Jordan is referring to retail of physical, then lol. Have you tried to buy physical silver Jordan? You are all over the gold/silver threads, but it doesn't seem like you have ever bought any. Premiums on physical silver are exploding. Silver Eagles, if you can find them, are running ~20% premium right now.

I bought some, and admittedly sold too early. I sold most of my "paper silver" in the mid-teens, and later dumped all my/my family's physical at or around $28-30 an ounce. I've been 100% honest about my terrible timing with silver in past threads - it's admittedly the ugliest but still profitable trade I've ever made. I wish I could claim I got in when I did (financial crisis) and dumped when I should have (2011 parabolic bubble at $50), but I'd just be a dirty liar.

Don't regret getting the hell out of silver. I'm much more comfortable with a portfolio of equities. I've made a promise to myself to avoid playing in commodities. There's too much timing involved.

P.S. I'm referring to retail investors. Mom and pop investors who are the last in and first out of any market. They always get slaughtered.

 

[oyarde]

There is no reason to get out when alternatives are paper.

 

[Seraphim]

I'd rather be in equities than actual commodities as well. Gold/silver are the exception for me. Gold is money and silver is money and a commodity. I'd rather have my cash/cash equivalents in Precious metals with a nice balance of productive company's equities and well positioned real estate.

Most of the physical PM holders around here are unleveraged long term savers. Strong hands.

When the price drops 10% in the span of 2-3 days it does nothing to us. It's the leveraged longs that get man-handled. Us unleveraged longs say THANKS FOR THE SALE.

I bought some, and admittedly sold too early. I sold most of my "paper silver" in the mid-teens, and later dumped all my/my family's physical at or around $28-30 an ounce. I've been 100% honest about my terrible timing with silver in past threads - it's admittedly the ugliest but still profitable trade I've ever made. I wish I could claim I got in when I did (financial crisis) and dumped when I should have (2011 parabolic bubble at $50), but I'd just be a dirty liar.

Don't regret getting the hell out of silver. I'm much more comfortable with a portfolio of equities. I've made a promise to myself to avoid playing in commodities. There's too much timing involved.

P.S. I'm referring to retail investors. Mom and pop investors who are the last in and first out of any market. They always get slaughtered.

 

[Lord Xar]

Apmex is showing 1.60 over spot on their brand, 1oz.

 

[NoOneButPaul]

Don't buy the ETFs and if you buy physical you won't find anything at 20 even if the spot price is 18

Go to Ebay... search for Silver Eagles.

A roll of 20 is going for 635$ right now... that's 31.75 per Eagle.

Physical and paper prices are starting to diverge, we are really starting to see the end game unfold here for the dollar.

Prepare.

 

[Seraphim]

Important; The average miner inccurs costs of about 20$ per ounce of silver now. It depends entirely on the mine, but averaged out, we are approaching COST just to mine the stuff.

 

[Seraphim]

I'm getting a lot of word about shortages at dealers and multiple week wait times for delivery.

 

[Seraphim]

By the way, when correlated to base money, we are now approaching HISTORIC lows for gold and silver.

This is about as cheap as we will get for a long, long time. There might be a bit more to bleed down, but based on base money aggregates this is a historic buying opportunity.

The last time the gold price was this low compared to base money was...drum roll...the year 2000.

That's right.

This is officially the largest bear trap the world has seen in a long, long time.

 

[Jordan]

Important; The average miner inccurs costs of about 20$ per ounce of silver now. It depends entirely on the mine, but averaged out, we are approaching COST just to mine the stuff.

Not that I don't believe you, but where are you getting this data. I'd love to see a report on this, because that kind of information is ridiculously valuable.

 

[Seraphim]

Mmmm I read the report 2 days ago. I'm going out for the night now, I'll update this thread tomorrow with as much info as I can.

Not that I don't believe you, but where are you getting this data. I'd love to see a report on this, because that kind of information is ridiculously valuable.

 

[muh_roads]

Got into a fender-bender with a woman and she gave me $350 to not report to insurance.

Thinking about bringing the money to a coin dealer and get me some more silver at these prices.

 

[pmbug]

Not that I don't believe you, but where are you getting this data. I'd love to see a report on this, because that kind of information is ridiculously valuable.

...
The whole silver mining industry is seeing its costs rise, but other than its $100 million write-down, PAAS's performance in terms of cost per ounce was pretty good. The company seems to be getting costs under control as evidenced by its 4Q costs being less than its yearly average. Also, when compared to last quarter's average silver miner costs (around $26/oz), PAAS is looking to be on the lower end with an average cost of $21.88 /oz for the 4Q and $23.72 for the year. I cannot say I'm surprised because PAAS tends to be a lower cost producer compared to the rest of the industry, but it is nice for PAAS investors to see that they are still maintaining themselves as one of the lowest cost primary silver miners.
...

http://seekingalpha.com/article/121...-silver-edition?source=email_rt_article_title

...
The purpose of this article is not to analyze PAAS, but rather, the whole silver industry to determine the cost of producing silver. To do so, I used the methodology that I have shown you above and applied it to as many public silver companies as I could find.

This is what I came up with for 3Q 2012 (the most recent reported quarter), which includes the reported costs of Coeur d'Alene Mines (CDE), Hecla Mining (HL), PAAS, Endeavour Silver (EXK), First Majestic (AG), Silver Standard Resources (SSRI), and Gold Resource Corporation (GORO).

The third quarter production of these companies incorporates 27 million equivalent ounces and comes out to about $26.54 per ounce of silver -- this should be shocking to investors who follow the "cash cost" number offered by silver companies.
...

http://seekingalpha.com/article/120...-cost-what-does-it-really-cost-to-mine-silver

YMMV

 

[2young2vote]

There is a website I know that is selling their brand of 1oz .999 silver rounds for only $1.00 over spot any quantity. Earlier today they had only 1300 or so of these coins available, now they have over 4000. I think they are going to try to take advantage of the people who are buying on the dip in prices. If it goes to $20 i will probably pick up 20-40oz.

 

[Rekonn]

Silver spot price $22.85, Gainesville price for 1oz 2013 silver eagle is $28.84. Apmex for same is $29.85. $6 and $7 over spot!! Here I was all happy for a buying opportunity, and there really isn't one at all. I'm going to check out a coin shop tomorrow instead, wish me luck.

 

[LibertyRevolution]

Yep, price drop seems to only be effecting paper... local dealers want $29...