Cap'n Crunk
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- Nov 7, 2007
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http://www.intrade.com/news/mainpage.jsp?article=news_147.html
The Political Prediction Markets
November 7th 2007. In This issue...
Bulls: Who’s Advancing?
Bears: Who’s Declining?
Most Active: Show me the $!
Benchmark Markets
No change at the top as Clinton and Giuliani rumble on. Paul jumps ahead of McCain and Thompson.
This bulletin provides a snapshot of the hundreds of important political and related markets on the Intrade exchange.
It highlights the week’s biggest winners (Romney, Paul), biggest losers (Thompson, Gore) and most actively traded markets.
In a world of data overload we aim to deliver succinct, accurate information to keep you up-to-date.
The Intrade Bulls
Markets or candidates that have performed well recently (normally 7 days).
Probability of Victory
7 Days Ago
Today
Change Change % Chart
Paul to be Rep. Presidential Nominee 6.9 8.7 +1.8 26.1 Chart
Romney to be next President 8.5 9.7 +1.2 14.1 Chart
Obama to be Dem. Presidential Nominee 12.5 13.2 +0.7 5.6 Chart
Romney to be Rep. Presidential Nominee 27.0 27.6 +0.6 2.2 Chart
Giuliani to be Rep. Presidential Nominee 41.1 41.5 +0.4 1.0 Chart
Note: Occasionally we will include Bull Markets even if they are not the top % gainers.
The Intrade Bears
Markets or candidates that have performed poorly recently (normally 7 days).
Probability of Victory
7 Days Ago Today Change Change % Chart
Gore to be Dem. Presidential Nominee 8.3 6.1 -2.2 26.5 Chart
Gore to be next President 7.3 5.4 -1.9 26.0 Chart
F. Thompson to be Rep. Presidential Nominee 9.9 7.4 -2.5 25.3 Chart
Huckabee to be Rep. Presidential Nominee 6.7 6.5 -0.2 3.0 Chart
Clinton to be next President 47.0 46.8 -0.2 0.4 Chart
Note: Occasionally we will include the Bear Markets even if they are not the top % losers.
Most Actively Traded
Most actively traded markets this week
Probability Volume Traded
7 Days Ago Today Total Last 7 Days Chart
Clinton to be Dem. Presidential Nominee 71.0 71.2 334,190 7,843 Chart
Huckabee to be next President 1.9 2.2 21,689 5,814 Chart
Romney to be next President 8.5 9.7 25,492 5,322 Chart
Edwards to be Dem. Presidential Nominee 4.0 5.1 127,593 3,313 Chart
Paul to be next President 3.3 3.6 22,896 3,065 Chart
Benchmark Markets
Democratic Nomination Market
Al Gore was the most significant mover in this market over the past seven days. His current price of 6.1 is down 2.2 points from last weeks value of 8.3. This follows a healthy 2.8 point gain in value last week.
Barack Obama and John Edwards both benefited from Gore’s retreat with gains in value. Obama’s current price of 13.2 is a modest bump of 0.7 points from last week’s value of 12.5. Although the gains have been small this is the third straight week of increasing value for Obama.
Edwards, who continues to be strong in his criticism of Hillary Clinton, is currently trading at 5.1, which is up 1.1 points from last week value of 4.0. The market still rates him less of a chance for the nomination than Gore however.
Hillary Clinton remains steady out in front. Her current price of 71.2 is up 0.2 points from last weeks value of 71.0. She leads nearest rival Obama by 58.0 points, which is down 0.5 points from the 58.5 point cushion she enjoyed last week.
Republican Nomination Market
Market leader Rudy Giuliani enjoyed a modest gain in value this week. His current price of 41.5 is up 0.4 points from last weeks price of 41.1.
Mitt Romney remains Giuliani’s nearest challenger for the nomination. His current price of 27.6 is a 0.6 gain from last weeks value of 27.0. Romney now trails Giuliani by 13.9 points, which is down very slightly on the 14.1 point gap between them last week.
Fred Thompson has continued his downward slide. His current price of 7.4 is a drop of 2.5 points from last weeks value of 9.9. In the last four weeks his value has dropped 14.6 points – a 66.4% drop in value.
Ron Paul (not shown on chart) enjoyed a nice gain this week, which has pushed him ahead of Thompson and John McCain. The congressman from Texas is currently trading at 8.7, which is up 1.8 points from last weeks value of 6.9.
John McCain remained steady this week. His current price of 7.1 is unchanged from seven days ago.
Next President Market
This week saw very settled trading in this market, with three of the four main candidates moving no more than 0.2 points.
Mitt Romney was the exception with a nice gain. His current price of 9.7 is up 1.2 points from last weeks value of 8.5 and is his highest price since peaking at 10.2 back in August ’07.
Hillary Clinton remains the market leader, a position she has held since the beginning of 2007. She did suffer a very slight loss in value however, with her current price of 46.8 down 0.2 points from last weeks value of 47.0.
Rudy Giuliani spends another week as Clinton’s nearest rival, although he remains unable to make up significant ground on the Democratic front runner. Giuliani is currently trading at 16.9, which is unchanged from last week. He sits 29.9 points behind Clinton after trailing by 30.1 points seven days ago.
Barack Obama also saw minimal change to his price this week. His current value of 6.5 is up 0.1 points from last weeks value of 6.4.
About Intrade
Intrade is The Prediction Market™ where members can buy and sell "shares" in financial, political, weather and other important events.
Our mission is to provide you with the most innovative and relevant trading opportunities and predictive information on uncertain future events.
Intrade news and new market launches are available on http://www.intrade.com/news/newsRss.xml.
INTRADE 10B Park West Business Park, Dublin 12 Ireland. Phone + (353) 1 6200-300 Fax + (353) 1 6200-301 E-mail [email protected]
The Political Prediction Markets
November 7th 2007. In This issue...
Bulls: Who’s Advancing?
Bears: Who’s Declining?
Most Active: Show me the $!
Benchmark Markets
No change at the top as Clinton and Giuliani rumble on. Paul jumps ahead of McCain and Thompson.
This bulletin provides a snapshot of the hundreds of important political and related markets on the Intrade exchange.
It highlights the week’s biggest winners (Romney, Paul), biggest losers (Thompson, Gore) and most actively traded markets.
In a world of data overload we aim to deliver succinct, accurate information to keep you up-to-date.
The Intrade Bulls
Markets or candidates that have performed well recently (normally 7 days).
Probability of Victory
7 Days Ago
Today
Change Change % Chart
Paul to be Rep. Presidential Nominee 6.9 8.7 +1.8 26.1 Chart
Romney to be next President 8.5 9.7 +1.2 14.1 Chart
Obama to be Dem. Presidential Nominee 12.5 13.2 +0.7 5.6 Chart
Romney to be Rep. Presidential Nominee 27.0 27.6 +0.6 2.2 Chart
Giuliani to be Rep. Presidential Nominee 41.1 41.5 +0.4 1.0 Chart
Note: Occasionally we will include Bull Markets even if they are not the top % gainers.
The Intrade Bears
Markets or candidates that have performed poorly recently (normally 7 days).
Probability of Victory
7 Days Ago Today Change Change % Chart
Gore to be Dem. Presidential Nominee 8.3 6.1 -2.2 26.5 Chart
Gore to be next President 7.3 5.4 -1.9 26.0 Chart
F. Thompson to be Rep. Presidential Nominee 9.9 7.4 -2.5 25.3 Chart
Huckabee to be Rep. Presidential Nominee 6.7 6.5 -0.2 3.0 Chart
Clinton to be next President 47.0 46.8 -0.2 0.4 Chart
Note: Occasionally we will include the Bear Markets even if they are not the top % losers.
Most Actively Traded
Most actively traded markets this week
Probability Volume Traded
7 Days Ago Today Total Last 7 Days Chart
Clinton to be Dem. Presidential Nominee 71.0 71.2 334,190 7,843 Chart
Huckabee to be next President 1.9 2.2 21,689 5,814 Chart
Romney to be next President 8.5 9.7 25,492 5,322 Chart
Edwards to be Dem. Presidential Nominee 4.0 5.1 127,593 3,313 Chart
Paul to be next President 3.3 3.6 22,896 3,065 Chart
Benchmark Markets
Democratic Nomination Market
Al Gore was the most significant mover in this market over the past seven days. His current price of 6.1 is down 2.2 points from last weeks value of 8.3. This follows a healthy 2.8 point gain in value last week.
Barack Obama and John Edwards both benefited from Gore’s retreat with gains in value. Obama’s current price of 13.2 is a modest bump of 0.7 points from last week’s value of 12.5. Although the gains have been small this is the third straight week of increasing value for Obama.
Edwards, who continues to be strong in his criticism of Hillary Clinton, is currently trading at 5.1, which is up 1.1 points from last week value of 4.0. The market still rates him less of a chance for the nomination than Gore however.
Hillary Clinton remains steady out in front. Her current price of 71.2 is up 0.2 points from last weeks value of 71.0. She leads nearest rival Obama by 58.0 points, which is down 0.5 points from the 58.5 point cushion she enjoyed last week.
Republican Nomination Market
Market leader Rudy Giuliani enjoyed a modest gain in value this week. His current price of 41.5 is up 0.4 points from last weeks price of 41.1.
Mitt Romney remains Giuliani’s nearest challenger for the nomination. His current price of 27.6 is a 0.6 gain from last weeks value of 27.0. Romney now trails Giuliani by 13.9 points, which is down very slightly on the 14.1 point gap between them last week.
Fred Thompson has continued his downward slide. His current price of 7.4 is a drop of 2.5 points from last weeks value of 9.9. In the last four weeks his value has dropped 14.6 points – a 66.4% drop in value.
Ron Paul (not shown on chart) enjoyed a nice gain this week, which has pushed him ahead of Thompson and John McCain. The congressman from Texas is currently trading at 8.7, which is up 1.8 points from last weeks value of 6.9.
John McCain remained steady this week. His current price of 7.1 is unchanged from seven days ago.
Next President Market
This week saw very settled trading in this market, with three of the four main candidates moving no more than 0.2 points.
Mitt Romney was the exception with a nice gain. His current price of 9.7 is up 1.2 points from last weeks value of 8.5 and is his highest price since peaking at 10.2 back in August ’07.
Hillary Clinton remains the market leader, a position she has held since the beginning of 2007. She did suffer a very slight loss in value however, with her current price of 46.8 down 0.2 points from last weeks value of 47.0.
Rudy Giuliani spends another week as Clinton’s nearest rival, although he remains unable to make up significant ground on the Democratic front runner. Giuliani is currently trading at 16.9, which is unchanged from last week. He sits 29.9 points behind Clinton after trailing by 30.1 points seven days ago.
Barack Obama also saw minimal change to his price this week. His current value of 6.5 is up 0.1 points from last weeks value of 6.4.
About Intrade
Intrade is The Prediction Market™ where members can buy and sell "shares" in financial, political, weather and other important events.
Our mission is to provide you with the most innovative and relevant trading opportunities and predictive information on uncertain future events.
Intrade news and new market launches are available on http://www.intrade.com/news/newsRss.xml.
INTRADE 10B Park West Business Park, Dublin 12 Ireland. Phone + (353) 1 6200-300 Fax + (353) 1 6200-301 E-mail [email protected]
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