my companies 401k manager is convinced there's a 'credit crisis'

[ghengis86]

So my companies 401k manager came and spoke during our recent national sales meeting. he kept harping on the difiicult times that lay ahead and how the frozen credit markets and loss of confidence has busted up the economy. He also said it was a great time to buy! (sidebar: i recently dropped my deferral into the plan to 1%)

anyhow, i got a chance to speak with him after the meeting and have been corresponding through e-mail about this topic ('frozen' credit markets). I've included the following links to him (among others):
http://www.reuters.com/article/email/idUSTRE4BA47420081211?pageNumber=1&virtualBrandChannel=0
http://www.minneapolisfed.org/research/WP/WP666.pdf

and his reply to the data:

"This is all good information and I will take it under advisement;
however, I have real clients who's line's of credit have been taken off
the table. Client A's $4,000,000 construction project is on permanent
hold. Client B's $10,000,000 credit facility - closed. Client C's
$20,000,000 credit facility, closed. I know for a number of my client's
the rules have changed and they can't get money for expansion and
growth. These are not sub-prime borrowers. Ask business owner's you
know if their banking relationships have changed."

i know this may be true, but i'm thinking there's more to these examples than just 'hey sorry, we're cutting you off now'. Like orders to fill Client A's building have stopped; that Client B and C's credit facilities aren't closing from the lack of available credit, but due to people ceasing to use credit.
Any other things i'm overlooking here? are there any other resources i could draw upon? thanks

 

[RedStripe]

There's a credit crisis insofar as a heroin addict would claim that a heroin shortage is the cause of his withdrawal symptoms.

 

[icon124]

The credit is there, the monetary base has increased by 70% (check numbers but close to 70% I think)...the problem is banks don't want to lend, AND people can't meet lending standards. There's probably tons of other related information, BUT the Fed has made sure the credit is there...just no one is doing anything with it.

 

[gonegolfin]

The credit is there, the monetary base has increased by 70% (check numbers but close to 70% I think)...the problem is banks don't want to lend, AND people can't meet lending standards. There's probably tons of other related information, BUT the Fed has made sure the credit is there...just no one is doing anything with it.

It is not that banks are not lending altogether. The problem is that lending has moved from an "out of control" state back to somewhat "less than normal" in what is a normal over correction. But the banks are still making loans available and lending is still happening. Personally, I could easily take out a $1 million mortgage loan right now if I were so inclined (considerably more several years back). So, part of it is that consumers do not want to take on debt. Savings rates are rising. And as far as the banks are concerned, we have simply moved back to more normal times where the availability of funds is more discriminating (as it should be).

Brian

 

[Mitt Romneys sideburns]

I went to the bank and asked for a 500K loan on a house. They asked me how much money I made and I told them I didnt make any money at all. I was pretty shocked when they wouldnt give me a loan. There is definitely a credit crisis out there because I couldnt get a loan.

 

[M House]

WTF is a "credit crisis" if that means less credit card offers in the mail that's just shit the-fucktasticly awesome.

 

[icon124]

It is not that banks are not lending altogether. The problem is that lending has moved from an "out of control" state back to somewhat "less than normal" in what is a normal over correction. But the banks are still making loans available and lending is still happening. Personally, I could easily take out a $1 million mortgage loan right now if I were so inclined (considerably more several years back). So, part of it is that consumers do not want to take on debt. Savings rates are rising. And as far as the banks are concerned, we have simply moved back to more normal times where the availability of funds is more discriminating (as it should be).

Brian

ahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh.....

okay let me clarify AGAIN...the banks don't want to lend like they did a few years ago...that doesn't mean they stopped all lending...that would be down right retarded.

 

[gonegolfin]

ahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh.....

okay let me clarify AGAIN...the banks don't want to lend like they did a few years ago...that doesn't mean they stopped all lending...that would be down right retarded.

icon, you did not clarify anything before. So, you cannot be clarifying AGAIN. You are clarifying your original incorrect statement for the FIRST TIME.

You originally said ... "the problem is banks don't want to lend". This is not a correct statement, pure and simple.

Brian

 

[icon124]

icon, you did not clarify anything before. So, you cannot be clarifying AGAIN. You are clarifying your original incorrect statement for the FIRST TIME.

You originally said ... "the problem is banks don't want to lend". This is not a correct statement, pure and simple.

Brian

I'm talking about for the second time on this economics subforum, that's why I said AGAIN. You're acting like you really know everything, but actually you are throwing little tiny pieces of information out there in hopes that others view you as some kind of genius LOL. Like banks not lending...in all honesty do you really think I meant that all banks completely (100%) stop lending? You find ways to act like you are really correcting someone...I could easily do the same for hundreds of posts on here, but I don't because I know what they mean.

Trust me if you were really this genius you try to come off as you WOULD NOT be here typing responses.

When I say "the problem is banks don't want to lend" I'm assuming people have at least a half a brain and would understand they aren't lending like the past few years. I mean seriously who would assume banks stopped all lending. That is what I mean by you trying to correct other people all the time. Even when it doesn't need to be done you want to do it...that's what gets very very annoying. Yes you know more than most people here...but some of us know as much as you, if not more.

 

[seapilot]

I went to the bank and asked for a 500K loan on a house. They asked me how much money I made and I told them I didnt make any money at all. I was pretty shocked when they wouldnt give me a loan. There is definitely a credit crisis out there because I couldnt get a loan.

Man this has to be sarcasm, either way its hilarious.

 

[gonegolfin]

I'm talking about for the second time on this economics subforum, that's why I said AGAIN. You're acting like you really know everything, but actually you are throwing little tiny pieces of information out there in hopes that others view you as some kind of genius LOL.

I do not claim to know everything. Anything but. I enjoy the learning more than anything else. But if I feel I can provide an answer to something, or be of help, I will try (is that not the purpose of such forums?). And BTW, I do not simply post brief opinions. I write regular articles/missives (in reasonable detail), some of which I happen to post on this forum (some members are also on my distribution). But not every post requires such a lengthy response.

Now, if you and/or others do not find my contributions useful, I can certainly spend my time elseware and will refrain from posting.

That said, I think you need to do a little reflection. I have seen a number of less than tactful posts from you (not directed at me, but at several others). Some of them are of an attacking/berating nature. I politely corrected you on some statements you made, the types for which you have come down hard on some others (especially in the Griffin thread, which is why I wanted to see how you would respond here ... I admit I parsed your recent posts a little more carefully). You did not handle it very well based on your above response. This leads me to believe you are rather young. I hope you take this the right way, but have not seen any evidence that you will. You will need these skills in the future.

Regards,
Brian

 

[devil21]

I heard a story from an accountant (auditor, technically) friend of mine tonite about how the credit crunch is really affecting companies. A client of her firm had their line of credit altered to the point where it was practically unusable for their line of business. The company, a seafood distributor, went from planning large million dollar expansions 6 months ago to doors closed two weeks ago, a week after the credit line was altered. So it's not necessarily that banks are yanking credit, though Im sure many are, but are also altering credit lines to minimize loss risk, causing some business models to fail.

 

[WRellim]

So my companies 401k manager came and spoke during our recent national sales meeting. he kept harping on the difiicult times that lay ahead and how the frozen credit markets and loss of confidence has busted up the economy. He also said it was a great time to buy! (sidebar: i recently dropped my deferral into the plan to 1%)

anyhow, i got a chance to speak with him after the meeting and have been corresponding through e-mail about this topic ('frozen' credit markets). I've included the following links to him (among others):
http://www.reuters.com/article/email/idUSTRE4BA47420081211?pageNumber=1&virtualBrandChannel=0
http://www.minneapolisfed.org/research/WP/WP666.pdf

and his reply to the data:

"This is all good information and I will take it under advisement;
however, I have real clients who's line's of credit have been taken off
the table. Client A's $4,000,000 construction project is on permanent
hold. Client B's $10,000,000 credit facility - closed. Client C's
$20,000,000 credit facility, closed. I know for a number of my client's
the rules have changed and they can't get money for expansion and
growth. These are not sub-prime borrowers. Ask business owner's you
know if their banking relationships have changed."

i know this may be true, but i'm thinking there's more to these examples than just 'hey sorry, we're cutting you off now'. Like orders to fill Client A's building have stopped; that Client B and C's credit facilities aren't closing from the lack of available credit, but due to people ceasing to use credit.
Any other things i'm overlooking here? are there any other resources i could draw upon? thanks

I heard a story from an accountant (auditor, technically) friend of mine tonite about how the credit crunch is really affecting companies. A client of her firm had their line of credit altered to the point where it was practically unusable for their line of business. The company, a seafood distributor, went from planning large million dollar expansions 6 months ago to doors closed two weeks ago, a week after the credit line was altered. So it's not necessarily that banks are yanking credit, though Im sure many are, but are also altering credit lines to minimize loss risk, causing some business models to fail.

The business environment has changed, and the economy has changed; customer needs have changed -- which means business plans need to change as well.

Companies that had "plans" for expansions in the old "E-Z Consumer Credit" model will not (and should not) get loans for those projects.

If you're trying to get a loan to start up a new "Starbucks" knockoff, or to expand "Linens & Things", or some goofy concept for a "Granite & Marble Countertop Store" -- you're simply not thinking straight.

But if you have a valid business plan (for say a local auto-repair shop to help people keep their cars running longer), and solid collateral, you can still get loans.

(I know a local car repair operation that is doing exactly that -- expanding their building and adding in two additional bays with lifts, etc. -- they had no trouble getting a loan. Probably didn't hurt that the existing building and the business were otherwise debt free, very frugally run, and the owner has had increasing demand {provable from the past years worth of repair tickets} and a stack of cars in the lot with even more people on a waiting list).

There was an old phrase "moving with the times" that has a slightly different meaning now.

 

[devil21]

The business environment has changed, and the economy has changed; customer needs have changed -- which means business plans need to change as well.

Companies that had "plans" for expansions in the old "E-Z Consumer Credit" model will not (and should not) get loans for those projects.

If you're trying to get a loan to start up a new "Starbucks" knockoff, or to expand "Linens & Things", or some goofy concept for a "Granite & Marble Countertop Store" -- you're simply not thinking straight.

But if you have a valid business plan (for say a local auto-repair shop to help people keep their cars running longer), and solid collateral, you can still get loans.

(I know a local car repair operation that is doing exactly that -- expanding their building and adding in two additional bays with lifts, etc. -- they had no trouble getting a loan. Probably didn't hurt that the existing building and the business were otherwise debt free, very frugally run, and the owner has had increasing demand {provable from the past years worth of repair tickets} and a stack of cars in the lot with even more people on a waiting list).

There was an old phrase "moving with the times" that has a slightly different meaning now.

What you're missing is that some industries require their credit lines to operate in certain ways in order to maintain their viability. When the line is altered, it may not fit the business model anymore thus driving the company out of business. Nothing to do with "EZ Credit" issues. In the example I used of the seafood business, the lender changed the line of credit to only be as much as accts receivable 2 weeks or more out, from prior total accounts receivable. For a business that does business in perisable (non-returnable) items to restaurants, many with weekly payment terms, that cut their credit line to 20% of the previous amount. And since many businesses use their credit line for immediate costs while they wait for outstanding receivables, that will cripple the business. It forced them to shut their doors since they couldn't keep up with immediate costs while waiting for payments. Anyway, the point is that there is indeed a credit crunch and that is an example of how it's affecting previously profitable businesses. Some businesses can't move with the times.

 

[theoakman]

I know someone who has only had a year of stable employment and makes 50k a year. She called up Wells Fargo, one of the largest banks in America I might add, to see what she could qualify for. Wells Fargo qualified her for a 250k loan. Standards are still well below where they were in the 1990s. There is no credit crisis. We just aren't giving loans to deadbeats anymore.

 

[devil21]

I know someone who has only had a year of stable employment and makes 50k a year. She called up Wells Fargo, one of the largest banks in America I might add, to see what she could qualify for. Wells Fargo qualified her for a 250k loan. Standards are still well below where they were in the 1990s. There is no credit crisis. We just aren't giving loans to deadbeats anymore.

The credit crunch isn't affecting individuals as much as it is affecting businesses that rely on lines of credit for day to day operations. Saying there is no credit crunch is flat out wrong. Just because it isnt affecting you, me or your friend doesn't mean it doesn't exist.

 

[ghengis86]

What you're missing is that some industries require their credit lines to operate in certain ways in order to maintain their viability. When the line is altered, it may not fit the business model anymore thus driving the company out of business. Nothing to do with "EZ Credit" issues. In the example I used of the seafood business, the lender changed the line of credit to only be as much as accts receivable 2 weeks or more out, from prior total accounts receivable. For a business that does business in perisable (non-returnable) items to restaurants, many with weekly payment terms, that cut their credit line to 20% of the previous amount. And since many businesses use their credit line for immediate costs while they wait for outstanding receivables, that will cripple the business. It forced them to shut their doors since they couldn't keep up with immediate costs while waiting for payments. Anyway, the point is that there is indeed a credit crunch and that is an example of how it's affecting previously profitable businesses. Some businesses can't move with the times.

so a viable business model is one that is bankrupt if nobody pays their bills in 2 weeks? seriously? if they don't have cash reserves to operate on 60 or even 30 day terms, what the hell are they thinking? that business was only profitable in the phony economy of living beyond your means and charging the company credit line for day to day operations.

 

[ghengis86]

The credit crunch isn't affecting individuals as much as it is affecting businesses that rely on lines of credit for day to day operations. Saying there is no credit crunch is flat out wrong. Just because it isnt affecting you, me or your friend doesn't mean it doesn't exist.

personal and commercial loans have had positive growth over the past year. credit lines are still there for profitable, viable businesses. are auto repair shops having the credit lines slashed? hell no, that industry is about to boom. anybody involved in any aspect of the healthcare industry? in every sector, that industry is projecting massive growth. think companies in that industry are having a hard time getting credit? not likely.

the credit is there for good businesses. the market is shifting capital from unprofitable, poorly run business that were once booming in the phony economy to solid, profitable, prudent businesses that don't rely on easy credit to operate.

 

[theoakman]

The credit crunch isn't affecting individuals as much as it is affecting businesses that rely on lines of credit for day to day operations. Saying there is no credit crunch is flat out wrong. Just because it isnt affecting you, me or your friend doesn't mean it doesn't exist.

companies that have no buffer and have trouble functioning without lines of credit should seriously rethink how well they are structured.

 

[ghengis86]

companies that have no buffer and have trouble functioning without lines of credit should seriously rethink how well they are structured.

i hear on the news that companies can't access lines of credit and are having trouble meeting payroll!

are you fucking kidding me?! what business is paying their employees with credit? if they have to use credit to meet payroll they don't deserve to be in business in the first place.

QED