Whats the max we can get for a streaming internet broadcast? What about a high number like 1 million - ie can we beat Fox ratings if we had the technology?
Let's run through the numbers:
Video resolution depends directly on a combination of available bandwidth and the amount of motion in the scene. If we were to compress using a modern codec like divx/xvid/mpeg4, we should be able to deliver a full resolution single stream with about 140KBps end-to-end. With protocol overhead, that would be around 175Kbps net on-the-wire. A low-res stream should be doable at about 25% of that number, or 44Kbps.
One million point-to-point low-res streams from a single head-end would be around 44Kbps * 1M or 44Gbps. Even in a modern co-location facility, getting more than 1Gbps is challenging. Delivering 44Gbps is possible, but it would be extremely expensive, and would require global redistribution through a caching provider like Akamai, and bottlenecks would still be apparent in places. Doing 1M full-resolution shows would take 4X as much bandwidth -- that seems beyond the reach of current technology.
There are other issues here, too. If there are many viewers on the same DSL mux (neighbors in the same community), available bandwidth can be saturated well before individual customer limits are reached.
These are some of the reasons why IPTV exists -- point-to-point delivery of digital programming to lots of homes isn't economically viable today, and probably won't be for the foreseeable future. However, even IPTV requires a dedicated cable distribution network.
What would be a reasonable goal for simultaneous program delivery over the Internet? With a dedicated 100Mbps port, a low-res show could be simultaneously delivered to around 2300 people.
This is another reason why I've been suggesting that broadcast TV is the best long-term approach.
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