late SC poll medians: Trump 33 Rubio 20.5 Cruz 18.5 Bush 9.5 Kasich 8.5 Carson 6%

[randomname]

.. .and Rubio may surge more:

It seems likely that Donald Trump is headed for another win today – but a closer one than I would have expected even a few days ago. In 4 polls taken February 16-19*, the medians are Trump 33%, Rubio 20.5%, Cruz 18.5%, Bush 9.5%, Kasich 8.5%, Carson 6%. Rubio may do even better than these numbers would indicate, since his surge is quite recent.

In a significant trend in the last week, many Trump and Cruz supporters got on the fence after the debate on the 13th, which was an insult-laden spectacle. Trump has slowly leaked 5.5 points of support and Cruz has lost 2 points (and Kasich gained a few points). Then, on Wednesday February 17th, South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley endorsed Rubio.

Immediately after, Rubio surged by 5.5 percentage points compared with 7 pre-endorsement polls, Feb. 13-17 sample, showing a median of 15.0 ± 0.5%. The graph at the top shows the running median, which I estimated day by day.

Even the newest polls still have at least half their sample coming before the Haley endorsement. So Rubio will likely outperform them, and maybe get into the mid-20s. Trump is in the news again for going after Pope Francis on the 18th an unbelievable event all by itself. I think Rubio is headed for a strong second-place finish. Seems like he’s got some life in him yet.

Trump will probably still hang on to first place. That should give him at least 44 of South Carolina’s 50 delegates. Given the all-or-none nature of delegate assignment (29 statewide delegates and 7 Congressional districts of 3 delegates each), Rubio could pick off a district or two.

Haley’s bigger impact might be driving Jeb Bush out of the race. If she had endorsed Bush, the results would probably look more like a four-man race. The ongoing presence of Bush, Kasich, and Carson is a drain on Cruz and Rubio because of delegate-assignment rules in the next few weeks, which often have a 15-20% threshold requirement. The more candidates remain, the more likely it is that Trump can get a majority of the delegates between now and Super Tuesday on March 1st. I previously wrote that Super Tuesday is a deadline for the Republican Presidential field to narrow. If Haley helps accomplish that, it’s a substantial contribution to her party’s Establishment wing.

http://election.princeton.edu/2016/...-endorsement-boosts-rubio-to-a-strong-second/

 

[Jan2017]

Kasich and Jeb! in the battle for the coveted fourth seed out of South Carolina into Super Tuesday . . . lol
Can Cruz uptrend above the 11-12% he got in New Hampshire with a performance up into the teens ?

Seriously, . . .

Trump with at least 44 of South Carolina’s 50 delegates.
Given the all-or-none nature of delegate assignment (29 statewide delegates and 7 Congressional districts of 3 delegates each),
Rubio could pick off a district or two.

 

[Dianne]

Well guys, we're screwed any way this goes. Who is the lesser of the evils?

 

[CPUd]

Kasich should beat Bush, maybe end up a lot closer to Cruz.

 

[squirl22]

Who is the lesser of the evils?

I don't know; they are all against civil liberties and the constitution and they all want to continue bombing people and overturning governments whenever they feel like it. I am lost.

 

[seapilot]

Well guys, we're screwed any way this goes. Who is the lesser of the evils?

Flavors of Tyranny.

Cruz = a lot more war, more spending. Globalist that pretends to be a nationalist. Guess he is best on 2 amendment rights though.

Rubio = more war, amnesty, more socialism/facism. Bush JR clone better dressed. Total Globalist puppet.

Trump = same amount of war, just different. Full on Nationalist, talks like anti Globalist (jury still out on what deals he would make with them). More spending for those that stroke his ego, but massive cutting funds of people that do not stroke his ego.

Jeb, Kasich, endorse Rubio. Carson endorses Trump.

Clinton= Obama 3rd term with a lot more gossip and scandals, more war and USA looking like Europe. More likely she gets prosecuted. Justice! Globalist lap dog.

Sanders= Same amount of war, Incredible amount of spending (make Obama look like a penny pincher) complete grid lock in government, total systemic breakdown and failure. (See Greece for preview). Marxist/Nationalist.

Wild Card

Bloomberg= Complete Autocrat. A little Less spending, more draconian executive orders, gun confiscation, and physical education training camps. Full assault on all civil liberties (censorship, health, travel) USA, less on foreigners. Best candidate for those not living in USA. Globalist.

 

[randomname]

Flavors of Tyranny.

Cruz = a lot more war, more spending. Globalist that pretends to be a nationalist. Guess he is best on 2 amendment rights though.

Rubio = more war, amnesty, more socialism/facism. Bush JR clone better dressed. Total Globalist puppet.

Trump = same amount of war, just different. Full on Nationalist, talks like anti Globalist (jury still out on what deals he would make with them). More spending for those that stroke his ego, but massive cutting funds of people that do not stroke his ego.

Jeb, Kasich, endorse Rubio. Carson endorses Trump.

Clinton= Obama 3rd term with a lot more gossip and scandals, more war and USA looking like Europe. More likely she gets prosecuted. Justice! Globalist lap dog.

Sanders= Same amount of war, Incredible amount of spending (make Obama look like a penny pincher) complete grid lock in government, total systemic breakdown and failure. (See Greece for preview). Marxist/Nationalist.

Wild Card

Bloomberg= Complete Autocrat. A little Less spending, more draconian executive orders, gun confiscation, and physical education training camps. Full assault on all civil liberties (censorship, health, travel) USA, less on foreigners. Best candidate for those not living in USA. Globalist.

Youre making Sanders sound like the best out of the bunch

 

[eleganz]

Burn in hell Cruz.

I really just hope Trump drives this all the way home and just destroys Cruz/Rubio because fuck those two.

 

[Dianne]

Burn in hell Cruz.

I really just hope Trump drives this all the way home and just destroys Cruz/Rubio because fuck those two.

That's the way I feel right now. If nothing else, a Trump win would send a shot to this corrupt Congress, heard round the world.

 

[Dianne]

Flavors of Tyranny.

Cruz = a lot more war, more spending. Globalist that pretends to be a nationalist. Guess he is best on 2 amendment rights though.

Rubio = more war, amnesty, more socialism/facism. Bush JR clone better dressed. Total Globalist puppet.

Trump = same amount of war, just different. Full on Nationalist, talks like anti Globalist (jury still out on what deals he would make with them). More spending for those that stroke his ego, but massive cutting funds of people that do not stroke his ego.

Jeb, Kasich, endorse Rubio. Carson endorses Trump.

Clinton= Obama 3rd term with a lot more gossip and scandals, more war and USA looking like Europe. More likely she gets prosecuted. Justice! Globalist lap dog.

Sanders= Same amount of war, Incredible amount of spending (make Obama look like a penny pincher) complete grid lock in government, total systemic breakdown and failure. (See Greece for preview). Marxist/Nationalist.

Wild Card

Bloomberg= Complete Autocrat. A little Less spending, more draconian executive orders, gun confiscation, and physical education training camps. Full assault on all civil liberties (censorship, health, travel) USA, less on foreigners. Best candidate for those not living in USA. Globalist.

Good summary. If Biden comes in the race, Hillary will be indicted. Otherwise, Obama and his personal attorneys (often referred to as the Justice Department), will give her a pass. No way does Obama want to see a "birther" in the White House.

 

[AuH20]

Good summary. If Biden comes in the race, Hillary will be indicted. Otherwise, Obama and his personal attorneys (often referred to as the Justice Department), will give her a pass. No way does Obama want to see a "birther" in the White House.

Biden could beat Trump. Hillary can't.

 

[Feelgood]

Well guys, we're screwed any way this goes. Who is the lesser of the evils?

The lesser evil is still evil.