Jeb Bush Campaign Memo: 70,000 Phone Calls Yield 1,260 Supporters

[timosman]

http://www.nytimes.com/politics/fir...-70000-phone-calls-to-entice-1260-supporters/

DES MOINES – It is a portrait of deep frustration. Jeb Bush’s campaign has 10 paid staff members in Iowa, it has made 70,380 phone calls to state Republicans and it has collected 5,000 email addresses. For all that, it has recruited just four volunteers statewide and has identified only 1,260 supporters.

The metrics were shown to campaign donors in Houston this week and revealed on Thursday as part of a detailed strategy memo obtained by U.S. News & World Report.

Upbeat excerpts from the briefing, which called Senator Marco Rubio of Florida “a G.O.P. Obama” and Mr. Bush’s chief rival, had been previously shared with reporters.

But the full 112-page memo, which has more sensitive information, surfaced the day after Mr. Bush delivered a lackluster debate performance and was upstaged by Mr. Rubio.

On Saturday, both will appear with eight other Republican candidates at a forum in Des Moines. Iowa, the state with the first nominating contest, has been rocky terrain for Mr. Bush because of its large evangelical bloc and hostility to mainstream politicians.

The report details how the campaign is paying less attention to Iowa than to New Hampshire and South Carolina.

In the weeks before voting begins, the campaign plans to spend $1.36 million on advertising in Iowa, $5.6 million in New Hampshire and $2.7 million in South Carolina. One slide from the report claims that in the six weeks since ads for Mr. Bush began airing in New Hampshire, the share of voters who say they support him when contacted by the campaign has doubled, to 14.8 percent.

It is unclear why the full strategy memo surfaced now. It may have been leaked to encourage a campaign shakeup, to communicate strategy to the Bush-affiliated “super PAC,” or to lower expectations for Mr. Bush in Iowa.

The campaign has set a goal of winning 18.45 percent of the votes on caucus night, Feb. 1. It predicts total Republican turnout will be 128,800, slightly more than in 2012. Four years ago, Rick Santorum won Iowa with 29,839 votes (Mitt Romney received 29,805 votes), but it is unclear where Mr. Bush would place in the much broader field if he somehow manages to hit his goal of almost 24,000 votes.

In any case, it is a long road from the 1,260 supporters of today to that magic number.

 

[Uriah]

That is low. Only 1.8% out of 70,000 calls... that's bad.

 

[RandPaul4Prez]

People keep saying that it's going to be jeb vs Hillary but I just don't see how if he can't even carry one state.

 

[Steve-in-NY]

Jeb Bush’s campaign has 10 paid staff members in Iowa, it has made 70,380 phone calls to state Republicans and it has collected 5,000 email addresses. For all that, it has recruited just four volunteers statewide and has identified only 1,260 supporters.

If if recall, Concerned American Voters had 40-full time staffers in Iowa since June making calls and such. This doesn't include the official campaigns efforts, which I think includes Students for Rand (SFR) whom I also believe recently said they made 40,000 calls in a single day.

I may be starting to get excited about this whole ground game thing now.

The one thing I find particularly interesting is

One slide from the report claims that in the six weeks since ads for Mr. Bush began airing in New Hampshire, the share of voters who say they support him when contacted by the campaign has doubled, to 14.8 percent.

I am very curious to know how that would work for Rand, but unfortunately the money simply isn't there to spend close to 10 million dollars to find out if it makes a difference or is worth it but I'm willing to bet that giving the media a few million certainly helps their coverage of you going forward.

 

[69360]

People keep saying that it's going to be jeb vs Hillary but I just don't see how if he can't even carry one state.

The TV hasn't told them to vote for Jeb yet. I think right before the IA caucus, the TV will tell boobus that Trump did something awful, bimbo explosion, bad business etc and Jeb is the white knight that will save them. This has become predictable.

 

[Matt Collins]

Romney never had a ground game in Iowa and practically won the straw poll caucus vote in 2012. This is nothing more than Bush lowering expectations.

 

[timosman]

Romney never had a ground game in Iowa and practically won the straw poll caucus vote in 2012. This is nothing more than Bush lowering expectations.

Ohhh, screw you Matt, you always will find a way to cheer people up.

 

[LatinsforPaul]

Rand and his Super PACs have to have over 200,000 phone calls by now. The question is how many supporters do they have?

 

[timosman]

Rand and his Super PACs have to have over 200,000 phone calls by now. The question is how many supporters do they have?

More than 3600 ?

 

[Dr. Dog]

That is low. Only 1.8% out of 70,000 calls... that's bad.

When I took part in the phone-from-home program for Ron's 2012 campaign I had similar results. Although I'm not sure if that's calls dialed, or calls where the person you're looking for actually picked up.

 

[Matt Collins]

Ohhh, screw you Matt, you always will find a way to cheer people up.

I'm just Mr. Sunshine

 

[Ronin Truth]

How does that ratio stack up against others, in general?

 

[Suzanimal]

The presentation released to reporters already called Rubio "the GOP's Barack Obama," but US News reports the full version includes some even more pointed and specific jabs at the senator's character and ethics. In fact, there's an entire slide devoted to Rubio with the title "Marco is a Risky Bet." Bullet points on the slide refer to Rubio's "misuse of state party credit cards, taxpayer funds," and links to "scandal-scarred former Congressman David Rivera" and a billionaire auto dealer Norman Braman, who is a major benefactor. The latter relationship "raises major ethical questions." The juiciest bullet point reads: "Those who have looked into Marco's background in the past have been concerned with what they have found." A Bush aide tells US News that refers to worries cited by Mitt Romney's team while vetting Rubio for vice president in 2012. Read the full leaked document here.

http://www.newser.com/story/215310/leaked-bush-document-says-rubio-is-risky-bet.html

 

[alucard13mm]

I think Jeb made the critical mistake of supporting illegal immigrants and speaking in spanish. That pretty much makes him a "traitor" in the eyes of the rest of the red meat republicans. <br><br>He thought that being all spanish-ish would make him more electable to the GOP and thus be something like Romney. But nope. He fooked up.

 

[Batman]

Either way, it might be time to peel away wavering donors or supporters who won't commit to Rubio.

 

[Liberty74]

A little over 600,000 Republicans in Iowa and out of of 70,380 Republican calls there are 1260 supporters.

So 70 goes into 600 out many times? 8.57

8.57 x 1260 supporters can get you about 10,798 Republican voters. Add 25% of the Indy vote that will vote caucus night and I can see how the Bush campaign comes up with roughly 18% of the vote in Iowa out of the 128K predicted.

But predictions are all BS for now cause anything can happen in the next 3 months.

 

[69360]

How does that ratio stack up against others, in general?

It's about average.

 

[Zippyjuan]

Telemarketers consider six percent response rate to be good. If he got 5,000 email addresses out of 70,000 calls that is right about that (just above the 4,800 expected). Then you get a smaller percent of that to actually close the deal on whatever they are selling.

 

[timosman]

I think Jeb made the critical mistake of supporting illegal immigrants and speaking in spanish. That pretty much makes him a "traitor" in the eyes of the rest of the red meat republicans. <br><br>He thought that being all spanish-ish would make him more electable to the GOP and thus be something like Romney. But nope. He fooked up.

Thank you for planting racist shit on our side. Are you a DNC operative?

 

[RJB]

When I took part in the phone-from-home program for Ron's 2012 campaign I had similar results. Although I'm not sure if that's calls dialed, or calls where the person you're looking for actually picked up.

Yeah I did that in 2008. I prefer doing it face to face or through mail. I actually can commiserate with those on Jeb's team making the calls. That was rough, but then again they are probably paid. Ron Paul didn't have to buy my loyalty.