Intrade

[Havax]

Romney 56% on

I know it's people betting real money. Should I temper my expectations that we will come in a close second? Is it now conventional wisdom Romney is going to win tonight?

http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/?eventId=90932

 

[Darthbrooklyn]

hahaa... i wouldnt go by Intrade

 

[PastaRocket848]

you're reading way too much. put down the internet... go watch some (non political) tv, and wait until the results come in. it's far too late to do anything about it anyway. you'll just worry yourself for no good reason. it is what it is, and it'll be what it'll be. we gave it our all.

 

[brandon]

It's a coin flip pretty much. Maybe a slightly weighted coin, but you get the idea.

 

[libertyfanatic]

Santorum having a 20% chance should automatically disqualify anything having to do with Intrade

 

[sailingaway]

Intrade follows the information it doesn't create the outcome. The day of the Ames straw poll the results careened like crazy.

 

[69360]

Mittens and frothy won't gotv enough to win a caucus. I'm confident.

 

[PastaRocket848]

Santorum having a 20% chance should automatically disqualify anything having to do with Intrade

why? he's in a statistical tie for first in every recent poll, or atleast close to it. 20% is reasonable. it could happen. and it would suck.

 

[Agorism]

Phone from home!

 

[winston_blade]

Intrade doesn't mean anything. All the MSM is against RP and that is the only info the bettors are getting. They don't have people down on the ground before they place bets.

 

[libertyfanatic]

why? he's in a statistical tie for first in every recent poll, or atleast close to it. 20% is reasonable. it could happen. and it would suck.

He might be able to pull off a win if he can convince all the evangelicals to support him but I don't think that they're smart enough to do that.

 

[rp08orbust]

Perhaps the Romney buying is being driven by a Romney internal poll. He did seem to exude quite a bit of confidence yesterday. But so did Ron Paul.

 

[Xenophage]

Romney 56% on

I know it's people betting real money. Should I temper my expectations that we will come in a close second? Is it now conventional wisdom Romney is going to win tonight?

http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/?eventId=90932

Seeing as how it is a virtual tie between Romney and Paul, bet on Paul winning because the payout will be bigger.

 

[Dr.3D]

He might be able to pull off a win if he can convince all the evangelicals to support him but I don't think that they're smart enough to do that.

Well, they would support him if they would read the words of Christ instead of something out of the Old Testament.

 

[A. Havnes]

He might be able to pull off a win if he can convince all the evangelicals to support him but I don't think that they're smart enough to do that.

There are evangelicals in Iowa who support him. Santorum probably has one county under his thumb, but his surge is over.

 

[libertyfanatic]

Well, they would support him if they would read the words of Christ instead of something out of the Old Testament.

Santorum supporters should read some nice passages from Leviticus at the caucus

 

[jclay2]

Intrade isn't proven to be entirely acurate the day of the caucus's or primaries. I remember with obama/clinton, a bet on intrade for the clinton to win the new hampshire primary the day before the primary paid off like a 100 to 1.

 

[parocks]

why? he's in a statistical tie for first in every recent poll, or atleast close to it. 20% is reasonable. it could happen. and it would suck.

One prediction is that I think that "undecided" will underperform the polls.

30 Paul
23 Romney
20 Santorum
12 Gingrich
7 Bachmann
6 Perry
2 Huntsman
*******
= 100

I'm not sure how that sucks.

 

[Dr.3D]

Santorum supporters should read some nice passages from Leviticus at the caucus

Yeah, I don't see any women staying outside the city limits till they can be checked to see if they are clean.

 

[braane]

I think Santorum has a better chance to win than Romney. Honestly.