Insider Advantage GOP Iowa Caucus Poll & GOP South Carolina Poll (11/28)

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freefromchains

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Previous poll from 11/8 in Parentheses

Iowa
Gingrich 28% (15%) +13
Paul 13% (11%) +2
Romney 12% (19%) -7
Bachmann 10% (5%) +5
Cain 10% (23%) -13
Perry 7% (9%) -2
Santorum 3% (3%) --
Huntsman -- (--) --

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2011/InsiderAdvantage_Iowa_GOP_1129.pdf

South Carolina
Gingrich 38% (19%) +19
Romney 15% (16) -1
Cain 13% (26%) -13
Paul 7% (3%) +4
Perry 4% (6%) -2
Bachmann 3% (5%) -2
Santorum 2% (2%) --

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2011/InsiderAdvantage_SC_GOP_1129.pdf

Never been a huge fan of their polls because they sorely lack information and their cross tabs are usually pretty ridiculous.

But nice to see positive traction in a typically unfavorable pollster (albeit a small increase...it is an increase!)
 
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Is South Carolina that tough of a state for Ron Paul? We're still behind Cain even after all his stuff? Wow.
 
Kords21 said:
Is South Carolina that tough of a state for Ron Paul? We're still behind Cain even after all his stuff? Wow.
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According to the polls it's one of the toughest states we're gonna have to deal with. Florida's not even worth mentioning...
 
RileyE104 said:
good news GOOD NEWS this was a great thing to wake up to!!!!
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It's not bad news. Upward movement in polls conducted by the same pollster (even when they're suspect) is always good, especially when Ron Paul is the only candidate besides the flavor of the month moving up, as is the case with SC.
 
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Looking real good. Ron is only going up and Newt will be crashing on schedule soon.
 
WTF GOP? Newt?! Are they that dense? Here's hoping the MSM pump and dump ends before Jan 3
 
By the time we hit SC we'll already have wins in Iowa and NH, so we'll have the upward momentum and dispelled the "unelectable" BS; then SC will be happy to jump on-board and pick a proven winner who is not Romney.
 
The most interesting thing about the Iowa poll is how far Romney has fallen. I don't recall seeing him that low in any state.
 
limequat said:
The most interesting thing about the Iowa poll is how far Romney has fallen. I don't recall seeing him that low in any state.
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It's because he isn't. His campaign wouldn't have gone public with an all-out push in Iowa if they were that low. This poll is terrible.
 
South Carolina is neocon central. It's where RedState guy introduced Flavor-of-the-Month Rick Perry.

These polls do prove one thing: The media is still in control of elections.
 
Kords21 said:
Is South Carolina that tough of a state for Ron Paul? We're still behind Cain even after all his stuff? Wow.
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As of January 19, RealClearPolitics reported that the average support from polls placed McCain in the lead with 26.9%, followed by Huckabee with 25.9%, Romney with 14.7%, Thompson with 14.6%, Paul with 4.4%, and Giuliani with 3.4%.
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TODAY'S RCP AVERAGES: Gingrich (26.3%), Romney (17.7%), Cain (16.7%), Perry (6.3%), Paul (5.3%), Bachmann (3.7%), Huntsman (2%), Santorum (1.6%) -- Still a long way away from January 19, so no need to panic yet! lol
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In the last election 16,000 out of 445,000 people showed up giving Dr. Paul less than 4% of the vote.


In the year 2000, the presidential election was a 2-person race between Bush and McCain. Bush won with 294,000 votes against McCain's 231,000 votes. In the 2006 race for Governor, it was a 2-person race in which 160,000 out of 247,000 people voted to elect Mark Sanford. However, this is a presidential election so I doubt only 250,000 people will show up and it wont be a 2-person race so we also won't need near as many votes as it took these guys.

In the 2008 election for president, there were basically three-tiers that consisted of six people. The top-tier was McCain (148,000 votes) vs Huckabee (133,000). The second-tier was Thompson (70,000) vs Romney (68,000) and the third-tier was Paul (16,000) vs Giuliani (9,500). And in the 2010 election for Governor there was a four-way race. The results were Haley (206,000) vs Barrett (92,000) vs McMaster (71,500) vs Bauer (52,500).


One thing I'm pretty sure of is that no less than 400,000 people are going to show up. If we're lucky only 375,000 will show up. However, I doubt more than 475,000 will show. Especially since a lot of Republicans are either discouraged about victory against Obama or simply just don't care who the nominee is and will instead opt to vote in November.

The wild-card here is how many people are still in the race come January 21st. There is a possibility IMO that on a scale of 1-10, (9) that we wont see Santorum, (7) that we wont see Bachmann, (5) that we wont see Huntsman or Perry and (3) that we wont see Cain. The race will definitely consist of Gingrich, Paul and Romney.

IMO, our struggles here will be against Romney and Gingrich if Cain continues his downfall. We'll do even better if Gingrich falls. I don't see Perry doing better than us but there is a slight possibility. Most of this depends on voter turn-out. If the others fail to properly organize, I can see Dr. Paul running away with third place at the least.

I personally feel that Dr. Paul is going to need at least 50,000 votes in order to compete. This is why momentum from Iowa and New Hampshire is so important!
 
wgadget said:
South Carolina is neocon central. It's where RedState guy introduced Flavor-of-the-Month Rick Perry.

These polls do prove one thing: The media is still in control of elections.
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A lot of SC GOP voters make a living off the MIC.
 
In Iowa, Ron Paul gets 5.6% among Republicans and Bachmann gets 46.8% among 18-29 year olds.

I smell some BS!!!!
 
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Hilarious that Cain is down the exact same amount Newt is up. Who are these cattle that migrate each time the media pumps a new flavor of the month?
 
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