How Russia Is About to Dramatically Change the World

[Cinderella]

Over the next few days, Russia will change the world. It has completed a new oil pipeline and port complex that sets Russia up to become a more powerful oil exporter than Saudi Arabia. The ramifications for Europe and Asia are profound: The shape of the global economy—and the global balance of power—will be altered forever.

http://www.thetrumpet.com/index.php?q=6872.5382.0.0

Russia pumped more than 10 million barrels of oil per day during November. With Saudi Arabian production falling, Russia is now the world’s largest oil exporter. Toss in Russia’s natural gas exports, and Russia is the biggest energy superpower in the world, by far. That does not even count Russia’s massive uranium resources and nuclear expertise.

 

[tmosley]

Wow. This should make energy cheaper in the US, even if it makes it more expensive in Europe, since we have to get ours by tanker anyways, so it doesn't matter to us if it is coming from the Sea of Japan or the Persian Gulf.

Edit: I could do without the Biblebabble at the end though.

 

[Cinderella]

Except.. Russia does not sell Oil in Dollars. They sell Oil in Rubles.

This means the Ruble will climb, the Dollar will fall.. while there will be "more" Oil, the price in American Dollars will rise...

The US has been positionining itself to control Middle Eastern Oil, as a foil to Russia's growing dominance in the oil industry. The recent focus on Yemen is key to this strategy, because Yemen is believed to have the largest undeveloped oil fields in the world, capable of fulfilling all the world's oil needs for 50 years. The US wants control over that oil--hence the recent bombing incident, and public focus on Yemen.

In addition, Yemen is geographically positioned at the straight that connects the Red Sea with the Indian Ocean,. Thus, having a strong US military presence in Yemen, and perhaps Somalia, will allow the US to control oil flows through the Suez Canal and Red Sea, estimated to be some 3 million barrels a day.

The so-called focus on "green energy" is simply lip-service used to placate the public. The powers that be have no intention of giving up their power, which largely consists of "oil power". Oil has always been the key to winning wars, and will continue to play this role for at least the next twenty years

 

[Fiscal Conservative]

Except.. Russia does not sell Oil in Dollars. They sell Oil in Rubles.

This means the Ruble will climb, the Dollar will fall.. while there will be "more" Oil, the price in American Dollars will rise...

The US has been positionining itself to control Middle Eastern Oil, as a foil to Russia's growing dominance in the oil industry. The recent focus on Yemen is key to this strategy, because Yemen is believed to have the largest undeveloped oil fields in the world, capable of fulfilling all the world's oil needs for 50 years. The US wants control over that oil--hence the recent bombing incident, and public focus on Yemen.

In addition, Yemen is geographically positioned at the straight that connects the Red Sea with the Indian Ocean,. Thus, having a strong US military presence in Yemen, and perhaps Somalia, will allow the US to control oil flows through the Suez Canal and Red Sea, estimated to be some 3 million barrels a day.

The so-called focus on "green energy" is simply lip-service used to placate the public. The powers that be have no intention of giving up their power, which largely consists of "oil power". Oil has always been the key to winning wars, and will continue to play this role for at least the next twenty years

As we have done in the past, for a great example, when we put an 'embargo' on oil exports to Japan before the attack of Pearl Harbor had come.

Worcester? Sox fan? Lol.

 

[Cinderella]

Marlins fan....and Dolphins too! i know im sick in the head

 

[Fiscal Conservative]

Marlins fan....and Dolphins too! i know im sick in the head

Nah, I've heard enough LOLLL

 

[dimaniak]

Except.. Russia does not sell Oil in Dollars. They sell Oil in Rubles.

Link?

 

[dannno]

So this means global oil prices will fall, along with the value of the dollar.

Buy gold.

 

[Zippyjuan]

Russia does not seem to have the capacity to increase their production despite this added platform for distribution. Their output has been declining for at least the past couple of years. Saudi Arabia reduced production to try to deal with the global oversupply of oil while Russia did not cut back because they needed the revenues.
From Pravda:
http://newsfromrussia.com/business/finance/28-01-2009/107024-Russian_oil_production_peak-0

By Gregor Macdonald

The United States reached peak oil production in 1971, as forecasted by M. King Hubbert, the Shell geologist. Before that time the US attained a form of glory in its oil age with spectacular discoveries in Texas, a robust industry, strong exports to the rest of the world and lots of free wildcatting. The oil age in the US also gave rise to novels and films, like Upton Sinclair’s Oil and of course George Steven’s vehicle with James Dean, Giant.


Russia appears to have peaked now without enjoying any such glory. Perhaps the promise of Khodorkovsky’s Yukos, which charged out of the gate and looked to deliver on the dream of a modern, efficient corporation was doomed by the oligarchical terms of its founding. Large mega-projects like Sakhalin also succumbed to the vagaries of the State, and now the bloated Gazprom looks more like a portrait of decay than an instrument of power. It’s not just the volatility in the price of Oil and Gas that was the undoing of Russia. It was Russia’s historical propensity to eat itself.

Russia’s oil industry now resembles the unbuilt buildings of Russia’s futurists, from the 1920’s. Production, which was boosted to new heights in 2007 has now fallen 1.00% in calendar year 2008. But the chatter out of Russia is much darker, than a 1.00% fall would suggest. First, Russia does not have as much easy oil as is found in the Arab states.

This makes Russia’s achievement in this decade, when it was able to match Saudi Arabia in daily production above 9 Mb/day, all the more impressive. But we know that a goodly portion of Russia’s ability to increase production from 2000-2008 comes directly from its previous collapse. In other words, Russia did not discover alot of new oil this decade. It simply went back to mothballed wells, many of which were aging. But while mothballed wells giveth, they also taketh away. They tend to have a surge flow after reopening, only to reach peak quickly thereafter.

More relevant now to the world however is the ability of Russia to export oil. 2008 saw Russian oil exports fall by over 5.00% and the outlook is not pretty from here. The fall in oil prices not only hurt Russia economically. Current prices are simply way too low for great swaths of Russian production to carry on profitably. While GDP per capita is still much lower in Russia than in the OECD, Russia simply does not have the kind of dirt-cheap labor or materials advantage that it enjoyed just 10 years ago. Very few oil producers do. And as a general point, oil at 45.00 continues to set the stage for a supply collapse. Russia is vulnerable to a huge drop in production.

Cinderella claims

The US has been positionining itself to control Middle Eastern Oil, as a foil to Russia's growing dominance in the oil industry. The recent focus on Yemen is key to this strategy, because Yemen is believed to have the largest undeveloped oil fields in the world, capable of fulfilling all the world's oil needs for 50 years. The US wants control over that oil--hence the recent bombing incident, and public focus on Yemen.

Yemen has proven reserves of 3.5 billion barrels while the world consumes over 7 billion a year. They could not possibly supply the world for 50 years. http://www.indexmundi.com/yemen/oil_proved_reserves.html Oops- that is the US which consumes 7 billion a year- the world consumes about 30 billion a year. they can't even supply the US for one year. Barely six months.

 

[Cinderella]

Link?

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601095&sid=ajwFFmFswhpM

 

[Cinderella]

Yemen has proven reserves of 3.5 billion barrels while the world consumes over 7 billion a year. They could not possibly supply the world for 50 years. http://www.indexmundi.com/yemen/oil_proved_reserves.html Oops- that is the US which consumes 7 billion a year- the world consumes about 30 billion a year. they can't even supply the US for one year. Barely six months.

Source: CIA World Factbook - Unless otherwise noted, information in this page is accurate as of September 17, 2009

 

[RideTheDirt]

Source: CIA World Factbook - Unless otherwise noted, information in this page is accurate as of September 17, 2009

The CIA would neeever lie about oil!

 

[Zippyjuan]

Source: CIA World Factbook - Unless otherwise noted, information in this page is accurate as of September 17, 2009

What is the link to your 50 year world supply figure? We need to get to the 1,500 billion barrel figure. That is about the total proven reserves of the 20 largest producers in the entire world. I can provide different sources with very similiar figures if you prefer.

http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/LDE6040LS.htm

FACTBOX-Yemen's oil, gas industry 05 Jan 2010 11:55:48 GMT
Source: Reuters
Jan 5 (Reuters) - Air strikes on insurgents in Yemen's north and increasing al Qaeda activity could threaten the country's liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports and batter hydro-carbon revenues of the Arab world's poorest country.

Here are some key facts about LNG and oil production in Yemen:

* According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), Yemen is the world's 36th biggest oil producer, with an output of 281,000 barrels per day (bpd) in 2009, compared with 300,000 bpd in 2008, and down from a peak of 457,000 in 2002.

The Middle East as a whole produces about 26 million bpd.

The EIA estimates Yemen holds 3 billion barrels (bbl) of proven oil reserves.

* Oil production accounts for 70 to 75 percent of public revenue in Yemen and more than 90 percent of export earnings, but output is expected to drop to around 250,000 bpd by 2014.

 

[Lovecraftian4Paul]

Post-Soviet Russia is prosperous once again because they do not let environmentalism wreck their economy. They have vast tracts of land to drill on without any outcry. And they aren't about to buy into global carbon controls/taxes because they realize how raw a deal it will be for emerging and advanced economies.

 

[Zippyjuan]

Wow. This should make energy cheaper in the US, even if it makes it more expensive in Europe, since we have to get ours by tanker anyways, so it doesn't matter to us if it is coming from the Sea of Japan or the Persian Gulf.

It will change how and where Russian oil is distributed but the world supply of oil will probably not change much so the impact on global oil prices should not be very significant.

Chart of historic Russian crude oil production:

http://www.wtrg.com/prices.htm

 

[crushingstep7]

Thank you for clearing that up, Zippyjuan.

 

[Zippyjuan]

Except.. Russia does not sell Oil in Dollars. They sell Oil in Rubles.

Only a small part of their oil is sold in rubles. According to your article:

Feb. 28 (Bloomberg) -- BP Plc’s Russian unit TNK-BP will start selling crude oil in rubles as Prime Minister Vladimir Putin seeks greater control over prices for the country’s biggest export earner.

TNK-BP has agreed to start selling crude on the St. Petersburg International Mercantile Exchange in March, the head of the exchange, Sergei Maslov, told state television today.

The country’s other major producers may do the same, Maslov said, without elaborating or identifying any other company. The bourse started trading diesel and jet fuel contacts in September.

TNK-BP accounts for about 16% of Russian oil production.
http://www.rogtecmagazine.com/2009/06/weatherford-agrees-to-acquire-tnk-bp.html

TNK-BP is Russia's third largest oil company, 50% owned by BP and 50% owned by AAR (Alfa, Access Renova). TNK-BP's shareholders also own close to 50% of another Russian oil and gas company, Slavneft. TNK-BP accounts for approximately 16% of Russia's production (including its share of Slavneft).

And only a fraction of that production will be sold for rubles on the exchange http://www.tnk-bp.com/operations/trade/

Refined products sales in 2008 amounted to 33.6 million tons, of which 21.4 million tons was exported and 12.3 million tons sold domestically (refined products sales). Domestic sales of refined products consist primarily of gasoline, while exports consist largely of diesel and fuel oil.

In 2009, TNK-BP began trading of refined products at the oil exchange. The main trading floors are the St.Petersburg International Mercantile Exchange and the Inter-regional Oil & Gas Exchange. During the first 9 months of 2009, 45,000 tons of refined products — diesel (summer and winter), gasoline and jet fuel – were sold this way. At the beginning of 2010 TNK-BP plans to sell no less than 15% of its product deliveries to the domestic market via exchanges. The company regards this as the most open, transparent and equitable method of trading and determining market prices.

By my math about 0.18% of TNK-BPs refined output was sold on the exchange for rubles (I did annualize the nine months reported trades to be 60,000 tons a year) and they are 16% of all Russian output.

 

[Cinderella]

This is groundbreaking news and it could lead to Russia ascending to Super Power status. It happens to be one of the largest land masses in the world and that alone would keep them on the world stage. This could even bring China down a notch or two as the Chinese desperately seek energy around the globe to fuel their growing economy.

What struck me about article is when it mentioned that Russia has outproduced Saudi oil production and that would signify the rumors that Saudi Arabia is beyond peak production. This tidbit could have serious affects on the already reeling US economy as Saudi Arabia increases prices for their exports to offset Russian production. The American public will have to foot the bill on that as well, given that they are the largest user of Saudi oil.

For the past sixty years or so, the Saudis have been the big oil producer with seemingly little to no competition. That, alone, is why it should make the West pause for a moment. Who knows how much oil is below the permafrost in Siberia?

A 2008 United States Geological Survey estimates that areas north of the Arctic Circle have 90 billion barrels (1.4×1010 m3) of undiscovered, technically recoverable oil (and 44 billion barrels (7.0×109 m3) of natural gas liquids ) in 25 geologically defined areas thought to have potential for petroleum. This represented 13% of the expected undiscovered oil in the world. Of the estimated totals, more than half of the undiscovered oil resources were estimated to occur in just three geologic provinces – Arctic Alaska, the Amerasia Basin, and the East Greenland Rift Basins. More than 70% of the mean undiscovered oil resources was estimated to occur in five provinces: Arctic Alaska, Amerasia Basin, East Greenland Rift Basins, East Barents Basins, and West Greenland–East Canada. It was further estimated that approximately 84% of the oil and gas would occur offshore.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_reserves

So, Russia, may be sitting on a gold mine. Then in the coming years Vladimir Putin may reclaim the helm of Prime Minister as been rumors. Make no mistake he is running the show from behind the scenes as President of the Russian Federation, much like Cheney is believed to have doing during the Bush Administration. He is a no non-sense leader, and is looking to bring Russia back to its former credibility on the world stage.

The US and the Western Europe should really sit back and take a pause at this development because it may be the indication of a major geopolitical shift in power. He who has access to the oil has all the power. Now, what is the US going to do to offset this chain of events taking place in Russia?

For one, under the Bush Administration, it appears that the US has an encirclement policy against Russia. With military operations in Iraq, Afghanistan, alliances with Turkey, support of the leader of Georgia and rumored military support during the Russian/Georgian Conflict over South Ossetia, and then the failed missile defense shield in Poland and the Czech Republic. Apparently, the Obama Administration is carrying on the torch of Russian encirclement as well. Read the article below, because it highlights the military side of all this, regarding the US and Russian Federation.

http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=12600

However, Russia and China have apparently seen this coming since 2001 with their Sino-Russia Treaty of Friendship.

Both the PRC and Russia fear an encroachment by the United States (especially following its strengthened geopolitical position following the September 11, 2001 attacks) involving areas which they view as belonging to their respective spheres of national influences and interests: for the PRC, this largely involves Taiwan serving as a US client state, while for Russia it involves having various former Soviet Republics as US client states. Many of these do not border either country, though Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan border the PRC, whereas Kazakhstan borders both.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2001_Sino-Russian_Treaty_of_Friendship

However, with the US economy in shambles and the government practically borrowing form its international bond holders to operate, how will it affect the military inroads made around the world as encirclement of Russia continues. Someone has to pay for all of it and if the cash stops there will have to be military withdrawals from garrisons around the globe.

Perhaps, with the recent interest international terrorism, and a war footing with Yemen and Iran, could the US be on the brink of reinstating a war economy much like Germany before World War II and the US during the War? Very interesting times are ahead and the outcome remains uncertain?
With the cataclysmic deficit of some 13 trillion dollars on the US government's balance sheet, and the taxable base losing their jobs, something is in the works to offset that problem.

One way or another, the US is going to have to restart the economy, and from the past, some believe it was the war that got the US out of the Depression and not the FDR's government policies. With this story it appears 2010 is starting with a bang, and no pun intended.

 

[Cinderella]

The US forced Russia's economy into a "death spiral" in the Eighty's that brought an "end" to the Cold War and broke up the old Soviet/USSR, just about destroying Russia and its economy in the process.

The Russians have not forgotten that "lesson"!

China sells the US cheap labor and cheap goods made with that labor.

The more they sell the more we buy, like addicts on a binge. This leaves China with a large US Dollar surplus, which the Chinese, ever the wise businessmen, immediately convert onto US assets (real estate, corporate ownership, etc.). This brings them power on the world stage that China would never had been able to achieve by force of arms alone.

China controls a large portion of the US debt, and that kind of power over a nation is to be used to best advantage.


China has learned the Wal-Mart Secret of Success: Volume ensures Profit better than Value. The US may be China's biggest and best customer, but for China to achieve her goals, the US cannot be China's only, or even most important customer.


Enter Russia.


For China to expand it needs resources. Russia has the resources. For China to reach out to other, larger world-wide markets (remember; Volume!) it cannot be burdened by the increasingly desparate needs of one customer (the US).

Russia offers china a solution:

Russia will supply China with all the resources it needs to expand its reach. In turn, China will abandon the US, which by now has become a drain on China's capacity. China will sacrifice the US assets it holds at, or below, "fire Sale" values (destroying the US economy in the process) and, with a guarantee of support from Russia, turn her eyes to the rest of the vast world market once dominated by the US.


Revenge is a dish best served cold. And it gets very cold in Moscow.

 

[Dunedain]

Russia is emerging from the dark tunnel of communism. We are entering the tunnel. They will be the next great super-power. Every other western nation is on the road to economic ruination of their economies and populations, except Russia.