GENERAL ELECTION - Prioritized List of Liberty Candidates

[malkusm]

The following is an offshoot thread from my "Primaries in the next 3 weeks" thread, which takes the winners in their GOP primaries and prioritizes them using district demographics, poll numbers, incumbent information, the importance of the office they seek, and how closely the candidate aligns with the views of Ron Paul. To paraphrase, these candidates are prioritized by a combination of electability and visibility.

Candidates who are expected to be in close races get much more on the "electability" end than a candidate in a safe GOP or Dem district. Candidates who are running for US Senate get more on the "visibility" end than one running for US House, who get more than one running for a state race.

At first I will only have the GOP candidates; I plan to add Libertarian and Independent candidates to the list in due time.

**Note: PVI = Cook Partisan Voter Index. For example, a PVI of R+8 means that, on average, the district favors the R candidate by about 8 points over the national average.

Without further ado, the rankings to date:

1) Rand Paul - Republican, U.S. Senate, Kentucky
http://www.randpaul2010.com/
PVI: R+8
Average poll results: Paul 47.0%, Conway 41.5%
Opponent: Jack Conway (D), non-incumbent
Race Rating: Leans GOP

2) Justin Amash - Republican, U.S. House, Michigan CD-3
http://amashforcongress.com/
PVI: R+6
Opponent: Pat Miles (D), non-incumbent
Race Rating: Safe GOP

3) Ken Buck - Republican, U.S. Senate, Colorado
http://buckforcolorado.com/
PVI: EVEN
Average poll results: Buck 44.0%, Bennet 43.3%
Opponent: Michael Bennet (D), incumbent
Race Rating: Toss-Up

4) Sharron Angle - Republican, U.S. Senate, Nevada
http://sharronangle.com/
PVI: D+2
Average poll results: Reid 47.5%, Angle 46.0%
Opponent: Harry Reid (D), incumbent
Race Rating: Toss-up

5) Paul LePage - Republican, Governor, Maine
http://www.lepage2010.com/
PVI: D+6
Recent poll results: LePage 38%, Mitchell 30%, Cutler 16%
Opponents: Libby Mitchell (D), non-incumbent; Eliot Cutler (I), non-incumbent
Race Rating: Toss-up

6) Glen Bradley - Republican, State House, North Carolina District 49
http://glenbradley.net/
PVI: D+8
Recent poll results: Bradley 43%, May 35%
Opponent: John May (D), incumbent

7) Doug Cloud - Republican, U.S. House, Washington CD-6
http://www.dougcloud.com/
PVI: D+5
Opponent: Norm Dicks (D), incumbent
Race Rating: Safe Dem

8) Nikki Haley - Republican, Governor, South Carolina
http://www.nikkihaley.com/
PVI: R+8
Recent poll results: Haley 49%, Sheehen 35%
Opponent: Vincent Sheehen (D), non-incumbent
Race Rating: Likely GOP

9) John Koster - Republican, U.S. House, Washington CD-2
http://www.kosterforcongress.com/
PVI: D+3
Opponent: Rick Larsen (D), incumbent
Race Rating: Likely Dem

T-10) Nick Landeros - Republican, State House, Montana District 64
http://www.nicklanderos.com/
PVI: D+7
Opponent: Franke Wilmer (D), incumbent

T-10) Tim Fairfield - Republican, State House, Kentucky District 78
http://timforkentucky.com/
PVI: D+7
Opponent: Tom McKee (D), incumbent

12) B.J. Lawson - Republican, U.S. House, North Carolina CD-4
http://www.lawsonforcongress.com/
PVI: D+8
Opponent: David Price (D), incumbent
Race Rating: Safe Dem

13) Mike Lee - Republican, U.S. Senate, Utah
http://www.mikelee2010.com/
PVI: R+21
Recent poll results: Lee 58%, Granato 28%
Opponent: Sam Granato (D), non-incumbent
Race Rating: Safe GOP

14) Steve Davisson - Republican, State House, Indiana District 73
http://www.stevedavisson.com/
PVI: D+8
Opponent: Ryan D. Bower (D), non-incumbent

15) Brian Jacobs - Republican, State Senate, Indiana District 25
http://votejacobs.com/
PVI: D+8
Opponent: Tim Lanane (D), incumbent

16) Paul Curtman - Republican, State House, Missouri District 105
http://www.paulcurtman.com/
PVI: D+6
Opponent: Michael Frame (D), incumbent

17) Shawn Olson - Republican, State Senate, Indiana District 4
http://www.olson4senate.com/
PVI: D+9
Opponent: Karen Tallian (D), incumbent

18) Melissa Leach - Republican, State House, Missouri District 137
http://www.melissaleach.info/
PVI: D+9
Opponent: Charlie Norr (D), incumbent

19) Mick Mulvaney - Republican, U.S. House, South Carolina CD-5
http://www.mulvaneyforcongress.com/
PVI: R+7
Recent poll results: Spratt 46%, Mulvaney 39%
Opponent: John Spratt (D), incumbent
Race Rating: Toss-Up

T-20) Gary Clift - Republican, U.S. House, California CD-10
http://cliftforcongress.com/
PVI: D+11
Opponent: John Garamendi (D), incumbent
Race Rating: Safe Dem

T-20) Stephen Bailey - Republican, U.S. House, Colorado CD-2
http://www.stephenbaileyforcongress.com/
PVI: D+11
Opponent: Jared Polis (D), incumbent
Race Rating: Safe Dem

22) Kevin Patrick - Republican, State House, West Virginia District 44
http://www.kevinpatrick.info/
PVI: D+10
Opponent: Multi-candidate ballot

23) John O'Neill - Republican, State House, Illinois District 63
http://www.electjohnoneill.com/
PVI: D+8
Opponent: Jack D. Franks (D), incumbent

24) Roger Gerber - Republican, State Senate, North Carolina District 18
http://gerberncsenate.com/
PVI: D+12
Opponent: Bob Atwater (D), incumbent

25) Jim DeMint - Republican, U.S. Senate (Incumbent), South Carolina
http://demint.senate.gov/public/
PVI: R+8
Recent poll results: DeMint 62%, Greene 20%
Opponent: Alvin Greene (D), non-incumbent
Race Rating: Safe GOP

26) Jim Tomes - Republican, State Senate, Indiana District 49
http://www.jimtomes.com/
PVI: D+18
Opponent: Patty Avery (D), non-incumbent

27) Ron Paul - Republican, U.S. House (Incumbent), Texas CD-14
http://www.ronpaulforcongress.com/
PVI: R+18
Opponent: Robert Pruett (D), non-incumbent
Race Rating: Safe GOP

T-28) Delia Lopez - Republican, U.S. House, Oregon CD-3
http://www.dlopezforcongress.com/
PVI: D+19
Opponent: Earl Blumenauer (D), incumbent
Race Rating: Safe Dem

T-28) David Ratowitz - Republican, U.S. House, Illinois CD-5
http://www.ratowitzforcongress.com/
PVI: D+19
Opponent: Mike Quigley (D), incumbent
Race Rating: Safe Dem

T-30) Robyn Hamlin - Republican, U.S. House, Missouri CD-1
http://www.hamlinforcongress.com/
PVI: D+27
Opponent: William Lacy Clay (D), incumbent
Race Rating: Safe Dem

T-30) John Dennis - Republican, U.S. House, California CD-8
http://www.johndennis2010.com/
PVI: D+35
Opponent: Nancy Pelosi (D), incumbent
Race Rating: Safe Dem

32) Greg Walker - Republican, State Senate (incumbent), Indiana District 41
http://votegregwalker.com/
PVI: R+10
Opponent: Chris Roller (D), non-incumbent

T-33) Michael Gaster - Republican, State Senate, Georgia District 2
http://www.friendsofgaster.com/
PVI: D+27
Opponent: Lester Jackson (D), incumbent

T-33) Diana Williams - Republican, State Senate, Georgia District 43
http://www.votedianawilliams.com/
PVI: D+29
Opponent: Ronald Ramsey, Jr. (D), incumbent

35) Jon Hardister - Republican, State House, North Carolina District 57
http://www.jonhardister.com/
PVI: D+10
Opponent: Mary Price Harrison (D), incumbent

36) Ellie Black - Republican, State House, California District 27
http://backintheblack2010.com/
PVI: D+17
Opponent: Bill Monning (D), incumbent

37) Simone Gordon - Republican, State House, Oregon District 8
http://simonegordon.netboots.net/
PVI: D+24
Opponent: Paul Holvey (D), incumbent

38) Tim Huelskamp - Republican, U.S. House, Kansas CD-1
http://www.huelskamp.org/
PVI: R+23
Opponent: Alan Jilka (D), non-incumbent
Race Rating: Safe GOP

39) Morgan Philpot - Republican, U.S. House, Utah CD-2
http://www.philpotforcongress.com/
PVI: R+15
Opponent: Jim Matheson (D), incumbent
Race Rating: Likely Dem

40) John Duncan, Jr. - Republican, U.S. House (incumbent), Tennessee CD-2
http://duncan.house.gov/
PVI: R+16
Opponent: David Hancock (D), non-incumbent
Race Rating: Safe GOP

41) Tom McClintock - Republican, U.S. House (incumbent), California CD-4
http://www.tommcclintock.com/
PVI: R+10
Opponent: Clint Curtis (D), non-incumbent
Race Rating: Safe GOP

42) Robert Vaughn - Republican, U.S. House, California CD-38
http://www.electrobert.com/
PVI: D+18
Opponent: Grace Napolitano (D), incumbent
Race Rating: Safe Dem

43) Mike Fallon - Republican, U.S. House, Colorado CD-1
http://www.fallon4congress.com/
PVI: D+21
Opponent: Diana DeGette (D), incumbent
Race Rating: Safe Dem

44) Jason Chaffetz - Republican, U.S. House (incumbent), Utah CD-3
http://chaffetz.house.gov/
PVI: R+26
Opponent: Karen Hyer (D), non-incumbent
Race Rating: Safe GOP

45) Bob Chandler - Republican, State House, California District 24
http://www.chandler2010.com/
PVI: D+14
Opponent: Jim Beall, Jr. (D), incumbent

46) Mike Delph - Republican, State Senate (incumbent), Indiana District 29
http://www.votesmart.org/voting_category.php?can_id=68073
PVI: R+26
Opponent: Robin Shackleford (D), non-incumbent

47) Duane Beals - Republican, State House, Indiana District 6
http://www.duanebeals.com/
PVI: D+17
Opponent: B. Patrick Bauer(D), incumbent

48) Walter Jones - Republican, U.S. House (incumbent), North Carolina CD-3
http://jones.house.gov/
PVI: R+16
Opponent: Johnny Rouse (D), non-incumbent
Race Rating: Safe GOP

--------------------------

Candidate TIERS (Level 1 = Pure, Level 2 = Strong Ally, Level 3 = Ally):

Level 1
1) Justin Amash
2) Glen Bradley
T-3) Nick Landeros
T-3) Tim Fairfield
5) B.J. Lawson
6) Brian Jacobs
7) Shawn Olson
8) Melissa Leach
9) Gary Clift
10) Stephen Bailey
11) Kevin Patrick
12) Roger Gerber
13) Ron Paul
T-14) Delia Lopez
T-14) David Ratowitz
T-16) Robyn Hamlin
T-16) John Dennis
T-18) Michael Gaster
T-18) Diana Williams
20) Ellie Black
21) Simone Gordon

Level 2
1) Rand Paul
2) Doug Cloud
3) Mike Lee
4) Steve Davisson
5) Paul Curtman
6) John O'Neill
7) Jim Tomes
8) Greg Walker
9) John Hardister
10) Morgan Philpot
11) John Duncan, Jr.
12) Robert Vaughn
13) Mike Fallon
14) Jason Chaffetz
15) Bob Chandler
16) Mike Delph
17) Duane Beals

Level 3
1) Ken Buck
2) Sharron Angle
3) Paul LePage
4) Nikki Haley
5) John Koster
6) Mick Mulvaney
7) Jim DeMint
8) Tim Huelskamp
9) Tom McClintock
10) Walter Jones

 

[klamath]

Thank for the work. That is good information.

 

[Old Ducker]

//

 

[Kotin]

awesome.

 

[Epic]

Lawson should be higher, and does anyone know Mulvaney's foreign policy?

 

[malkusm]

Lawson should be higher, and does anyone know Mulvaney's foreign policy?

No, and I discounted Mulvaney for that. I basically have 3 levels of "legitimacy" as a liberty candidate. Mulvaney is on par with DeMint, Haley, Huelskamp, and McClintock - he got 0 points in that department because of questions in that area. However, he is a demonstrated liberty candidate due to his voting record against spending in the South Carolina House of Representatives.

As for B.J. Lawson, I put him in the highest "legitimacy" category, on par with Ron Paul. He's in a tough district and is running against an entrenched incumbent....but I agree that Lawson and Gary Clift should get a lot of support around here.

If we could get a poll of Lawson's district, that would factor into his ranking and possibly move him up - the only thing keeping him down where he is in the list is the "electability" aspect.

 

[malkusm]

Full disclosure: My rankings of "legitimacy" were based on the candidates' declared positions and past statements on (1) foreign policy; (2) monetary policy; (3) civil liberties.

The candidates break into those 3 candidates as follows:

Level 1
Justin Amash
B.J. Lawson
Gary Clift
Nick Landeros
Tim Fairfield
Glen Bradley
Ron Paul
Delia Lopez
David Ratowitz
Melissa Leach
Kevin Patrick
Robyn Hamlin
John Dennis
Michael Gaster
Diana Williams

Level 2
Rand Paul
Mike Lee
Paul Curtman
Morgan Philpot
John O'Neill
John Duncan, Jr.

Level 3
Nikki Haley
Jim DeMint
Mick Mulvaney
Tim Huelskamp
Tom McClintock
Walter Jones
Jason Chaffetz

 

[freshjiva]

3) Nikki Haley - Republican, Governor, South Carolina
http://www.nikkihaley.com/
PVI: R+8
Recent poll results: Haley 49%, Sheehen 35%
Opponent: Vincent Sheehen (D), non-incumbent
Race Rating: Likely GOP


7) B.J. Lawson - Republican, U.S. House, North Carolina CD-4
http://www.lawsonforcongress.com/
PVI: D+8
Opponent: David Price (D), incumbent
Race Rating: Safe Dem

Meh, Haley was endorsed by Mitt Romney. Nuff said about her.
I agree with the OP that BJ Lawson should be higher on this list.

Overall, I would've hoped we had more principled Liberty candidates than what we do. Kinda discouraging that we really only have one, perhaps two at most, Liberty candidates for the House (Amash and Lawson) and one in the Senate (Rand). Would have been great if we could add Schiff, Hostettler, and Kokesh to that list.

 

[james1906]

Where's Angle?

 

[malkusm]

Meh, Haley was endorsed by Mitt Romney. Nuff said about her.
I agree with the OP that BJ Lawson should be higher on this list.

Overall, I would've hoped we had more principled Liberty candidates than what we do. Kinda discouraging that we really only have one, perhaps two at most, Liberty candidates for the House (Amash and Lawson) and one in the Senate (Rand). Would have been great if we could add Schiff, Hostettler, and Kokesh to that list.

I see what you're saying about Romney endorsing Haley, but Jeb Bush has campaigned for Rand Paul. You have to play that game to get elected to statewide office....it's the unfortunate nature of politics these days. Jack Hunter was promoting Haley leading up to the primary. I think she'll basically be along the lines of Mark Sanford - a strong fiscal conservative with a tendency to stand up for states' rights on occasion.

We have plenty of principled liberty candidates - just not plenty of principled liberty candidates who can win. I think that everyone on the list is on board with us at least about 80-85% and is miles ahead of the typical politician in Washington. Huelskamp and McClintock, despite not being perfect, will win. We also have about 15 primaries left where candidates will be added to this list.

Where's Angle?

I am open to adding Angle if the forums think it is prudent. Is she better or worse than DeMint? That's basically my barometer. Worse than DeMint doesn't get on the list.

 

[malkusm]

Kinda discouraging that we really only have one, perhaps two at most, Liberty candidates for the House (Amash and Lawson) and one in the Senate (Rand).

Also (and not to beat it to death), I'm not sure how you're counting and I'm not sure if you really reviewed the list - Mike Lee is basically a shoo-in as a second Senate candidate.

 

[freshjiva]

I am open to adding Angle if the forums think it is prudent. Is she better or worse than DeMint? That's basically my barometer. Worse than DeMint doesn't get on the list.

I think Angle winning is significantly more important than DeMint, not because she is more Liberty-minded, but because her victory would be unseating a powerful big-government Democrat: Harry Reid.

 

[TCE]

I think Angle winning is significantly more important than DeMint, not because she is more Liberty-minded, but because her victory would be unseating a powerful big-government Democrat: Harry Reid.

Who will likely be replaced by an even worse Democrat in the form of Dick Durbin or Chuck Schumer in the Majority Leader post. I am glad everyday that neither of the latter two are Majority Leader. We would have a real cause for concern if they were.

 

[klamath]

Here are a few I think you missed.
Duncan TN.
Bachmann MN.
Flake AZ
There is another Rep in Utah that has come out against the war I can't remember his name and a rep from NC as well.
All of these people had high 70 to 80% RP voting records before Obama was elected.

 

[malkusm]

Here are a few I think you missed.
Duncan TN.
Bachmann MN.
Flake AZ
There is another Rep in Utah that has come out against the war I can't remember his name and a rep from NC as well.
All of these people had high 70 to 80% RP voting records before Obama was elected.

You're thinking of Chaffetz in Utah and Walter Jones in North Carolina.

Flake still has a primary to go through, and I was planning on adding him to the list once he got through that.

The other two (Duncan and Bachmann) I don't consider liberty candidates, although they do ally with us on some issues. I liked Bachmann until she presented a slideshow at CPAC and pointed to the "Miss Me Yet?" billboard, claiming how proud she was that the billboard was in her state.

 

[james1906]

I think Angle winning is significantly more important than DeMint, not because she is more Liberty-minded, but because her victory would be unseating a powerful big-government Democrat: Harry Reid.

This.

Also +1 on adding Jones, Duncan, and Chaffetz.

 

[trey4sports]

alvin Greene!

he aint schmoozin with wall-street fat cats!

 

[klamath]

You're thinking of Chaffetz in Utah and Walter Jones in North Carolina.

Flake still has a primary to go through, and I was planning on adding him to the list once he got through that.

The other two (Duncan and Bachmann) I don't consider liberty candidates, although they do ally with us on some issues. I liked Bachmann until she presented a slideshow at CPAC and pointed to the "Miss Me Yet?" billboard, claiming how proud she was that the billboard was in her state.

It appears this is your list of what you consider freedom candidates. To each his own.
Duncan has had pretty much the highest RP voting score of anyone but RP.

The average House score for this index is a dismal 38 percent and the average Senate score is an even worse 34 percent. Three representatives earned perfect scores: John Duncan (R-Tenn.), Jeff Flake (R.-Ariz.), and Ron Paul (R.-Texas). In the Senate, Tom Coburn (R-Okla.) scored 100 percent. The overall results should be much higher, of course, considering that our standard for rating lawmakers is the U.S. Constitution and every member of Congress takes an oath to uphold the Constitution.

 

[malkusm]

It appears this is your list of what you consider freedom candidates. To each his own.
Duncan has had pretty much the highest RP voting score of anyone but RP.

The average House score for this index is a dismal 38 percent and the average Senate score is an even worse 34 percent. Three representatives earned perfect scores: John Duncan (R-Tenn.), Jeff Flake (R.-Ariz.), and Ron Paul (R.-Texas). In the Senate, Tom Coburn (R-Okla.) scored 100 percent. The overall results should be much higher, of course, considering that our standard for rating lawmakers is the U.S. Constitution and every member of Congress takes an oath to uphold the Constitution.

I said that I would add Flake after his primary.

I didn't know much about Duncan, but he looks great. I will add Duncan, Chaffetz, and Walter Jones for now. I think Coburn could also probably go on the list. The funny thing is that pretty much all of these candidates are inconsequential in the scheme of the list, because they are all in heavily conservative districts and don't align with our views 100%.

 

[TCE]

I said that I would add Flake after his primary.

I didn't know much about Duncan, but he looks great. I will add Duncan, Chaffetz, and Walter Jones for now. I think Coburn could also probably go on the list. The funny thing is that pretty much all of these candidates are inconsequential in the scheme of the list, because they are all in heavily conservative districts and don't align with our views 100%.

Coburn voted for the bailout, so I am against adding him to the list. Flake is much more of a DeMint-style Republican than a pro-liberty type, so he probably qualifies for your second tier after he wins his primary.