Friday Night Edition-Where does Paul finish in Iowa

[nyrgoal99]

We can do another one on Mon/Tues

Curious to see what people think based on all the polls and the info from the ground

 

[winston_blade]

I could see people slander him at the caucuses during the speeches.

 

[Maximus]

After the Deace endorsement of Gingrich, I think we will pull this off

 

[Warrior_of_Freedom]

We need to get 1st. if we get 2nd we won't hear the effing end of it. "RON PAUL'S SUPPORT ULTIMATELY FAILS TO PROP HIM UP TO FIRST PLACE IN THE MOST IMPORTANT CAUCUS-FUCKING-EVER IN ANY STATE AND YEAR"

And I think the campaign in Iowa needs to make sure the votes are counted correctly! It's unacceptable they plan to move where the votes are going to be counted. Complete bullshit!

 

[nyrgoal99]

We need to get 1st. if we get 2nd we won't hear the effing end of it. "RON PAUL'S SUPPORT ULTIMATELY FAILS TO PROP HIM UP TO FIRST PLACE IN THE MOST IMPORTANT CAUCUS-FUCKING-EVER IN ANY STATE AND YEAR"

I thought Iowa didnt matter???

kidding

 

[Fermli]

Paul at 25%+. Comfortable win.

 

[No Free Beer]

1. Paul
2. Romney
3. Perry/Santorum

 

[lx43]

Paul 1st.

 

[eleganz]

if you think he can't win Iowa..you're not paying attention

 

[Karsten]

Paul first. We're essentially tied with Romney (in polls that oversample registered Republicans, mind you) and every political analyst knows that that means whoever can produce turnout wins. We own the turnout factor.

 

[nyrgoal99]

if you think he can't win Iowa..you're not paying attention

That was not the question. Will he win Iowa

 

[winston_blade]

Being honest and hoping I'm pleasantly surprised:

1. Romney
2. RP
3. Santorum
4. Grinch
5. Perry
6. Bachman
7. Huntsman

 

[messana]

A tie at the very least.

 

[eok321]

We'll win

We never lose support.

Dedication to the cause + the indy vote will be good for a couple of % points as will some good speeches on caucus night.

I think Ron 27% Rom 21%

 

[nyrgoal99]

We'll win

We never lose support.

Dedication to the cause + the indy vote will be good for a couple of % points as will some good speeches on caucus night.

I think Ron 27% Rom 21%

PPP seems to have reasonable numbers, thought I do not want to rely on 1 poll

 

[merrimac]

My prediction: Paul will finish 2nd (21,22,23%) but Romney will get some undecided voters on Caucus night and boost him up to the high 20s. The pundits are going to say Romney won and Santorum "surprised" everyone by finishing 3rd while ignoring Paul.

 

[nyrgoal99]

2 people so far think 4th or lower, wow

 

[jay_dub]

Most poll takers have noted that RP has a lot of support not counted by the polls due to exclusive cell phone use of many of his supporters and also the firmness of his support base. I look for a 1st place finish.

 

[nyrgoal99]

Most poll takers have noted that RP has a lot of support not counted by the polls due to exclusive cell phone use of many of his supporters and also the firmness of his support base. I look for a 1st place finish.

This did not really play out in 2008 as was expected.

 

[FreedomProsperityPeace]

Paul first. We're essentially tied with Romney (in polls that oversample registered Republicans, mind you) and every political analyst knows that that means whoever can produce turnout wins. We own the turnout factor.

That's how I see it. The media is trying to push Romney edging ahead, and even pumping up Santorum as a factor, but I really believe our army will pull this off.

Inclement weather isn't the only factor caucus-goers have to fight through. Apathy and the prospect of a long caucus process are there too. If lukewarm Romney supporters believe the MSM message of Romney having this in the bag, they may just say "F it" and stay home. It's the same thing Ron Paul supporters were concerned about when he started surging.