Warlord
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- May 2, 2013
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Exclusive: Ed Snowden's Trades
Here's some of hero Ed Snowden's trades he posted to a gaming forum. The account he used has been verified as him by the MSM and covers numerous topics (see here)
However not covered much are his market trades.
Here's the full thread in chronological order. Those not Ed have got a > next to their comments.
-- BEGIN --
Thread NEW PREDICTION. Dow 4000-4500 (Started Nov 19th 2008);
Snowden's 1st post in the thread (Posted: Wed Nov 19, 2008 7:31 pm):
Infrastructure development? Rural Fibrification! Big Grin
Oh, and per the other stock thread, for those of you who missed it. Yeah, that 3x leveraged Russell 2000 short ETF? Here's the one-day move for today:
Direxion Small Cap Bear 3X Shares (ETF)
$117.11
+22.92 (24.33%)
I got stopped out earlier in the day, though. Frown
From the "other" stock thread Snowden referenced (Posted: Tue Nov 18, 2008 6:43 pm):
Holy jesus, have you guys started using the new triple levered long/short Russell 1000/2000 index etfs? BGZ/BGU & TNA/TZA are the tickers, I believe. Puts the 2x ultra etfs to shame.
It's playing with fire -- you have to have serious conviction to put significant money in on one of them due to the RIDICULOUS volatility nowadays -- but it's great fun on the small scale. They amplify the daily gains/losses of the Russell 1000/2000 index by a factor of three.
Snowden: (Posted: Thu Nov 20, 2008 3:12 pm):
Got in TZA @ $127.9 early on today for $4k. Scary as hell day when the baby sucker's rally started, but I hung on until the end of the day. Out @ $141.37.
That's the first money I've made in this market in over a month.
Back to curent thread. Snowden (Posted: Wed Nov 19, 2008 9:47 pm):
>http://plungewatch.blogspot.com/
Really scary graphic on that site, actually. How many years will it take us to make up all of that lost ground?
Snowden (Posted: Mon Nov 24, 2008 3:17 pm):
Symbol/ CUSIP : TNA
Description : DIREX SM CAP BULL 3X ETF
Date Acquired : Multiple
Average Unit Cost : $21.40
Price : $26.72
Gain Loss % : 24.86%
Since yesterday.
This ees verry verry gud markeet.
Originally posted by Super Charlie:
>Now you can pick up some TZA and ride it back down again.
Ah, another enlightened brother. Welcome.
Snowden (Posted: Mon Nov 24, 2008 5:05 pm):
So tomorrow:
Consolidation, continuation, or reversal?
My vote is for consolidation.
Snowden (Posted: Tue Nov 25, 2008 3:11 pm):
So... I'd just like to point out I was right. Again.
And caught another 3.3% increase on intraday TNA. Hey, they can't all be 20% days. Big Green
Any predictions for tomorrow? Lower close, here.
Snowden posted this image (Posted: Tue Nov 25, 2008 7:56 pm):
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/images/Paul_19_4_07a.png
With this link:
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article806.html
Snowden (Posted: Wed Nov 26, 2008 6:44 pm):
I certainly called today wrong myself -- I was expecting a lower close. Instead, we got a lower open. Fundamentally, there is no basis for a rally here, but today's market is not exactly rational. Lost about 7% on my short position before stopping out.
Friday depends entirely on sentiment about BF's progression. Next week should take cues early on from the reality of BF, then the bailout hearings.
Snowden (Posted: Sun Nov 30, 2008 9:59 pm):
Rough whole-weekend numbers are due to be released tomorrow, and same-store sales numbers for november are due out on thursday for the big department stores (which whispers indicate got crushed, but we know how reliable recent rumors have been...).
Honestly, I can't even offer a vague prediction for tomorrow. It's too up in the air right now -- even though instinct tells me we're getting too close to hard resistance for these kind of rallies to continue, with all of the psychology and manipulation in play right now, it's anybody's game.
Snowden (Posted: Mon Dec 01, 2008 11:03 am):
Looks like army strong support holding @ 845/spx. If we break that, though, this will be one hell of a day.
Snowden (Posted: Mon Dec 01, 2008 11:45 am):
Broke down under 845, and recession since Dec 07 officially declared. All we need is a major bank failure and the end times are here.
Snowden (Posted: Mon Dec 01, 2008 10:49 pm):
I don't know why everybody seems so glum. Thanks to levered short ETFs, an 11% down day for the Russell 2000 (that would be today) translates to a 33% up day. I got in late, and still got a 12% one-day return for today's action.
Hedging is your friend!
Name Price Change
TZA 93.76 +24.12 (34.64%)
Snowden: (Posted: Tue Dec 02, 2008 1:21 am):
Originally posted by chalex:
>While this is certainly a valid point for the short term, it is not a sustainable strategy.
1. Go short.
2. ???
3. Profit!!
(FYI: Remember that ultrashorts also offer the WORST returns these days, as well. It just depends on which day you get caught on. If not for tight stops, I would have suffered horrifying losses on several occasions.)
Snowden: (Tue Dec 02, 2008 9:25 am):
Ebony Jesus speaking now. Instant rally!
EDIT: Yep. Okay, now test resistance @ yesterday's flatbed, and give a little back to daddy.
Snowden: (Posted: Tue Dec 02, 2008 11:32 am):
Originally posted by Emkorial:
>Leverage works both ways. That's the danger with bear markets: the snapbacks can slaughter you.
I'm sorry, I saw you talking, but all I heard was "TIGHT STOPS." Big Green
Snowden: (Posted: Tue Dec 02, 2008 12:41 pm):
Oh god, that call was so beautiful that my tears, they just don't stop flowing.
H&S pattern preparing to form; with a little luck we could even go negative by the end of the session. Auto numbers are terrible.
Snowden: (Posted: Tue Dec 02, 2008 1:19 pm)
Oh man oh man oh man. This week could be it! Can has we have capitulation pls?
Snowden (Posted: Tue Dec 02, 2008 1:49 pm):
Just watching the daily action; failed (critical) rally, autos missed expectations by huge amount for sale, sears going to go bankrupt (330,000 employees IIRC) unless it fixes something fast. Technicals all look bad, and if volume picks up into a slide at the EOD we could break the last hard support before 757SPX, which would basically condemn us to retesting (and most probably breaking) the lows... and if that happens...
panic in the streets! Wink
Snowden (Posted: Tue Dec 02, 2008 3:06 pm):
Frown
PPT wins today.
Someone asks:
I've been meaning to find out: what is PPT ?
Snowden replies (Posted: Tue Dec 02, 2008 3:16 pm):
Plunge Protection Team
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plunge_Protection_Team#Plunge_Protection_Team
The guys using your TSP / Social Security Fund to prevent the markets from crashing.
Someone posts:
>Attn: TheTrueHOOHA:
>Who are you and why have you taken over this thread?
Snowden retorts (Posted: Tue Dec 02, 2008 4:45 pm):
It's a market prediction thread. Stuff it, captain 2006.
Snowden (Posted: Tue Dec 02, 2008 10:08 pm):
Originally posted by Tuborg:
>Seems like any particular numerical value would be highly dependent on the method used to compute it.
>Are there accepted methods for computing these, or are do they have more of a voodoo element to them?
http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&q=fibonacci+retracement&btnG=Google+Search&aq=2&oq=fibonacci
Support lines can be drawn from historical reversal points, trend lines, fib lines, and about a million other different proprietary-system methods. Some are hard, some are soft. It's not an exact science, but it works much more often than it doesn't. If you daytrade, you'll see it in action all the time.
Snowden (Posted: Thu Dec 04, 2008 11:44 am):
We have not yet seen a bottom. Even in the best-case, irrational-exuberance viewing of where we're at now, we could only be -close- to having seen a defensible bottom. ~6500 DJIA is the best case scenario, ~5k realistic, ~3.5k pessimistic, not factoring in end-of-the-world valuations.
And don't forget to adjust for inflation!
On a side note, this is one of the choppiest weeks I've ever seen traded. There are some very creepy and conflicting indicators out there. Everything is pointed in opposite directions, and we're getting due for a large move when they resolve. As much as it would make sense for that to be a big drop, given the current sentiment and willful investor ignorance of the news, I believe it's more likely we'll see a bounce in the form of an EWT 4 wave before we begin the final road downwards.
Someone asks:
>EWT 4 ?
Snowden replies:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elliot_wave_theory
Someone replies to Ed:
>Oh wow, a 3500-6500 spread. Quite the Nostradamus you are.
Ed replies (Posted: Thu Dec 04, 2008 12:15 pm):
That's not a prediction, champ.
Some others pile on Ed:
>snicker
>Yeah, I'm gonna go out on a limb and predict that the Dow will be somewhere between 6000 and 12000 in 2010.
Someone else:
>Apparently missing sales estimates that were already lowered is good for an 8% jump in Best Buy??
Someone else:
>Ironic considering the Dow was at 6500 when Greenspan gave his irrational exuberance speech in 1996.
>BTW, where are you getting these figures? Drawing some lines on a few charts is not a predictor of anything. It's simply voodoo stock analysis.
Ed responds to his critics (Posted: Thu Dec 04, 2008 12:20 pm):
Laugh it up. I'm posting positive returns precisely because I've been flexible in my outlook and not trapped myself in that kind of close minded thinking. Predicting the DJIA down to the point level is ludicrous right now, but there's real value in understanding the ranges.
Snowden (Posted: Thu Dec 04, 2008 12:21 pm):
Originally posted by raihanan:
>BTW, where are you getting these figures? Drawing some lines on a few charts is not a predictor of anything. It's simply voodoo stock analysis.
It's the consensus, and yes, it is based on technical analysis. Do your own goddamned due diligence. I'm not here to teach a class.
EDIT: Now, hopefully, you guys would like to add something to the thread worth more than your sass.
Someone responds:
>Wait, all I have to do is not lose money in order to be granted legitimacy? I'm posting positive returns too.
>If you posit a spread between "we probably haven't bottomed out and we might go to 6500" and "It's almost the end of the world and we might go lower then 3500" then not only is there no value to be found with such a statement, it is completely meaningless.
>How about you add some rationale to your inane statements first.
Ed replies (Thu Dec 04, 2008 12:53 pm):
Your choice, boss. You're on your own.
-END THREAD-
Here's some of hero Ed Snowden's trades he posted to a gaming forum. The account he used has been verified as him by the MSM and covers numerous topics (see here)
However not covered much are his market trades.
Here's the full thread in chronological order. Those not Ed have got a > next to their comments.
-- BEGIN --
Thread NEW PREDICTION. Dow 4000-4500 (Started Nov 19th 2008);
Snowden's 1st post in the thread (Posted: Wed Nov 19, 2008 7:31 pm):
Infrastructure development? Rural Fibrification! Big Grin
Oh, and per the other stock thread, for those of you who missed it. Yeah, that 3x leveraged Russell 2000 short ETF? Here's the one-day move for today:
Direxion Small Cap Bear 3X Shares (ETF)
$117.11
+22.92 (24.33%)
I got stopped out earlier in the day, though. Frown
From the "other" stock thread Snowden referenced (Posted: Tue Nov 18, 2008 6:43 pm):
Holy jesus, have you guys started using the new triple levered long/short Russell 1000/2000 index etfs? BGZ/BGU & TNA/TZA are the tickers, I believe. Puts the 2x ultra etfs to shame.
It's playing with fire -- you have to have serious conviction to put significant money in on one of them due to the RIDICULOUS volatility nowadays -- but it's great fun on the small scale. They amplify the daily gains/losses of the Russell 1000/2000 index by a factor of three.
Snowden: (Posted: Thu Nov 20, 2008 3:12 pm):
Got in TZA @ $127.9 early on today for $4k. Scary as hell day when the baby sucker's rally started, but I hung on until the end of the day. Out @ $141.37.
That's the first money I've made in this market in over a month.
Back to curent thread. Snowden (Posted: Wed Nov 19, 2008 9:47 pm):
>http://plungewatch.blogspot.com/
Really scary graphic on that site, actually. How many years will it take us to make up all of that lost ground?
Snowden (Posted: Mon Nov 24, 2008 3:17 pm):
Symbol/ CUSIP : TNA
Description : DIREX SM CAP BULL 3X ETF
Date Acquired : Multiple
Average Unit Cost : $21.40
Price : $26.72
Gain Loss % : 24.86%
Since yesterday.
This ees verry verry gud markeet.
Originally posted by Super Charlie:
>Now you can pick up some TZA and ride it back down again.
Ah, another enlightened brother. Welcome.
Snowden (Posted: Mon Nov 24, 2008 5:05 pm):
So tomorrow:
Consolidation, continuation, or reversal?
My vote is for consolidation.
Snowden (Posted: Tue Nov 25, 2008 3:11 pm):
So... I'd just like to point out I was right. Again.
And caught another 3.3% increase on intraday TNA. Hey, they can't all be 20% days. Big Green
Any predictions for tomorrow? Lower close, here.
Snowden posted this image (Posted: Tue Nov 25, 2008 7:56 pm):
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/images/Paul_19_4_07a.png
With this link:
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article806.html
Snowden (Posted: Wed Nov 26, 2008 6:44 pm):
I certainly called today wrong myself -- I was expecting a lower close. Instead, we got a lower open. Fundamentally, there is no basis for a rally here, but today's market is not exactly rational. Lost about 7% on my short position before stopping out.
Friday depends entirely on sentiment about BF's progression. Next week should take cues early on from the reality of BF, then the bailout hearings.
Snowden (Posted: Sun Nov 30, 2008 9:59 pm):
Rough whole-weekend numbers are due to be released tomorrow, and same-store sales numbers for november are due out on thursday for the big department stores (which whispers indicate got crushed, but we know how reliable recent rumors have been...).
Honestly, I can't even offer a vague prediction for tomorrow. It's too up in the air right now -- even though instinct tells me we're getting too close to hard resistance for these kind of rallies to continue, with all of the psychology and manipulation in play right now, it's anybody's game.
Snowden (Posted: Mon Dec 01, 2008 11:03 am):
Looks like army strong support holding @ 845/spx. If we break that, though, this will be one hell of a day.
Snowden (Posted: Mon Dec 01, 2008 11:45 am):
Broke down under 845, and recession since Dec 07 officially declared. All we need is a major bank failure and the end times are here.
Snowden (Posted: Mon Dec 01, 2008 10:49 pm):
I don't know why everybody seems so glum. Thanks to levered short ETFs, an 11% down day for the Russell 2000 (that would be today) translates to a 33% up day. I got in late, and still got a 12% one-day return for today's action.
Hedging is your friend!
Name Price Change
TZA 93.76 +24.12 (34.64%)
Snowden: (Posted: Tue Dec 02, 2008 1:21 am):
Originally posted by chalex:
>While this is certainly a valid point for the short term, it is not a sustainable strategy.
1. Go short.
2. ???
3. Profit!!
(FYI: Remember that ultrashorts also offer the WORST returns these days, as well. It just depends on which day you get caught on. If not for tight stops, I would have suffered horrifying losses on several occasions.)
Snowden: (Tue Dec 02, 2008 9:25 am):
Ebony Jesus speaking now. Instant rally!
EDIT: Yep. Okay, now test resistance @ yesterday's flatbed, and give a little back to daddy.
Snowden: (Posted: Tue Dec 02, 2008 11:32 am):
Originally posted by Emkorial:
>Leverage works both ways. That's the danger with bear markets: the snapbacks can slaughter you.
I'm sorry, I saw you talking, but all I heard was "TIGHT STOPS." Big Green
Snowden: (Posted: Tue Dec 02, 2008 12:41 pm):
Oh god, that call was so beautiful that my tears, they just don't stop flowing.
H&S pattern preparing to form; with a little luck we could even go negative by the end of the session. Auto numbers are terrible.
Snowden: (Posted: Tue Dec 02, 2008 1:19 pm)
Oh man oh man oh man. This week could be it! Can has we have capitulation pls?
Snowden (Posted: Tue Dec 02, 2008 1:49 pm):
Just watching the daily action; failed (critical) rally, autos missed expectations by huge amount for sale, sears going to go bankrupt (330,000 employees IIRC) unless it fixes something fast. Technicals all look bad, and if volume picks up into a slide at the EOD we could break the last hard support before 757SPX, which would basically condemn us to retesting (and most probably breaking) the lows... and if that happens...
panic in the streets! Wink
Snowden (Posted: Tue Dec 02, 2008 3:06 pm):
Frown
PPT wins today.
Someone asks:
I've been meaning to find out: what is PPT ?
Snowden replies (Posted: Tue Dec 02, 2008 3:16 pm):
Plunge Protection Team
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plunge_Protection_Team#Plunge_Protection_Team
The guys using your TSP / Social Security Fund to prevent the markets from crashing.
Someone posts:
>Attn: TheTrueHOOHA:
>Who are you and why have you taken over this thread?
Snowden retorts (Posted: Tue Dec 02, 2008 4:45 pm):
It's a market prediction thread. Stuff it, captain 2006.
Snowden (Posted: Tue Dec 02, 2008 10:08 pm):
Originally posted by Tuborg:
>Seems like any particular numerical value would be highly dependent on the method used to compute it.
>Are there accepted methods for computing these, or are do they have more of a voodoo element to them?
http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&q=fibonacci+retracement&btnG=Google+Search&aq=2&oq=fibonacci
Support lines can be drawn from historical reversal points, trend lines, fib lines, and about a million other different proprietary-system methods. Some are hard, some are soft. It's not an exact science, but it works much more often than it doesn't. If you daytrade, you'll see it in action all the time.
Snowden (Posted: Thu Dec 04, 2008 11:44 am):
We have not yet seen a bottom. Even in the best-case, irrational-exuberance viewing of where we're at now, we could only be -close- to having seen a defensible bottom. ~6500 DJIA is the best case scenario, ~5k realistic, ~3.5k pessimistic, not factoring in end-of-the-world valuations.
And don't forget to adjust for inflation!
On a side note, this is one of the choppiest weeks I've ever seen traded. There are some very creepy and conflicting indicators out there. Everything is pointed in opposite directions, and we're getting due for a large move when they resolve. As much as it would make sense for that to be a big drop, given the current sentiment and willful investor ignorance of the news, I believe it's more likely we'll see a bounce in the form of an EWT 4 wave before we begin the final road downwards.
Someone asks:
>EWT 4 ?
Snowden replies:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elliot_wave_theory
Someone replies to Ed:
>Oh wow, a 3500-6500 spread. Quite the Nostradamus you are.
Ed replies (Posted: Thu Dec 04, 2008 12:15 pm):
That's not a prediction, champ.
Some others pile on Ed:
>snicker
>Yeah, I'm gonna go out on a limb and predict that the Dow will be somewhere between 6000 and 12000 in 2010.
Someone else:
>Apparently missing sales estimates that were already lowered is good for an 8% jump in Best Buy??
Someone else:
>Ironic considering the Dow was at 6500 when Greenspan gave his irrational exuberance speech in 1996.
>BTW, where are you getting these figures? Drawing some lines on a few charts is not a predictor of anything. It's simply voodoo stock analysis.
Ed responds to his critics (Posted: Thu Dec 04, 2008 12:20 pm):
Laugh it up. I'm posting positive returns precisely because I've been flexible in my outlook and not trapped myself in that kind of close minded thinking. Predicting the DJIA down to the point level is ludicrous right now, but there's real value in understanding the ranges.
Snowden (Posted: Thu Dec 04, 2008 12:21 pm):
Originally posted by raihanan:
>BTW, where are you getting these figures? Drawing some lines on a few charts is not a predictor of anything. It's simply voodoo stock analysis.
It's the consensus, and yes, it is based on technical analysis. Do your own goddamned due diligence. I'm not here to teach a class.
EDIT: Now, hopefully, you guys would like to add something to the thread worth more than your sass.
Someone responds:
>Wait, all I have to do is not lose money in order to be granted legitimacy? I'm posting positive returns too.
>If you posit a spread between "we probably haven't bottomed out and we might go to 6500" and "It's almost the end of the world and we might go lower then 3500" then not only is there no value to be found with such a statement, it is completely meaningless.
>How about you add some rationale to your inane statements first.
Ed replies (Thu Dec 04, 2008 12:53 pm):
Your choice, boss. You're on your own.
-END THREAD-
Last edited:
