Wow,
Is this coming to America?
You are not going to like the answer...
20% Chance Of Ebola In USA By October; 277,124 Global Cases By Year-End, Model Predicts
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-...r-277124-global-cases-year-end-model-predicts
(lots clipped - click through)
As another epidemiolgist (and federal advisor) - Dr. Michael T. Osterholm of the University of Minnesotta - warns:
I’ve spent enough time around public health people, in the US and in the field, to understand that they prefer to express themselves conservatively. So when they indulge in apocalyptic language, it is unusual, and notable.
When one of the most senior disease detectives in the US begins talking about “plague,” knowing how emotive that word can be, and another suggests calling out the military, it is time to start paying attention.
There are two possible future chapters to this story that should keep us up at night.
The first possibility is that the Ebola virus spreads from West Africa to megacities in other regions of the developing world. This outbreak is very different from the 19 that have occurred in Africa over the past 40 years. It is much easier to control Ebola infections in isolated villages. But there has been a 300 percent increase in Africa’s population over the last four decades, much of it in large city slums…
The second possibility is one that virologists are loath to discuss openly but are definitely considering in private: that an Ebola virus could mutate to become transmissible through the air… viruses like Ebola are notoriously sloppy in replicating, meaning the virus entering one person may be genetically different from the virus entering the next. The current Ebola virus’s hyper-evolution is unprecedented; there has been more human-to-human transmission in the past four months than most likely occurred in the last 500 to 1,000 years. Each new infection represents trillions of throws of the genetic dice.
And finally, as Wired reports, the professor extrapolates:
In a worst-case hypothetical scenario, should the outbreak continue with recent trends, the case burden could gain an additional 77,181 to 277,124 cases by the end of 2014.
^^^^That was the optimistic version...
Ebola victims could total 1,000,000 within 12-18 weeks
http://www.decodedscience.com/ebola-victims-total-1000000-within-18-weeks/49301
(lots clipped, click through)
Could U.S. involvement spur a global movement to assist in West Africa? The reproduction of ZMAPP requires tobacco plants to reproduce enough implanted ebola antibodies/proteins to generate enough antibodies to generate enough vaccine to control the ebola outbreak. The next batch to treat the West African outbreak will be ready in December 2014. What will the ebola outbreak look like by then?
The 2014 Ebola Outbreak is fully out of Control
Each ebola victim generates at least one other ebola victim.
The doubling time for ebola infections is now down to 4 weeks.
Within one month the doubling time will be 7 days. The current number of ebola victims – over 2200 – will double to 4,000 in one month, then to 8,000 and then 16,000 as we reach a 7-day doubling time.
Taking into consideration the addition of more beds, more medical assistance, and the availability of ZMapp to the West African ebola victims, the doubling time may not increase as quickly. With an outpouring of aid from the global community, the ebola outbreak may require 8 weeks to reach a seven-day doubling time.
When we do reach the 7 day critical doubling time, however, it’s a short interval to reach a million victims – this could happen within 12 to 18 weeks from now.
-t
