Did Romney Suspend So We Couldn't Have a Brokered Convention?

[Knightskye]

Seems fishy that he would suspend his campaign, when he had more delegates than Huckabee. Plus he didn't drop out, but I read if a Republican suspends their campaign, the states are responsible for allocating their delegates.

But Romney's a businessman, so you can bet he had a few tricks up his sleeve.

 

[Ayse]

He wants a good standing in the republican party so he can run again in 2012, and he didn't want to get embarrassed.

 

[nate895]

Funny, since it's now more likely. Huckabee and Paul need to get a combined 55% of the rest of the national delegates, and it goes brokered.

 

[AlexMerced]

I think huckabee is gonna sweep the rest... brokered convention here we come, I hope all our delegates bound to toher candidates currently are ready

 

[JordanQ72]

Funny, since it's now more likely.

That is such nonsensical and illogical thinking...

 

[jeff43]

He didn't suspend it because of Paul. He suspended it because he wasn't going to win and he didn't want to spend more of his own money to drag out the inevitable. I think Ayse is right, he plans to run again in 2012 if the Democrats win the general election.

No chance of a brokered convention. Huckabee is not going to win all of the remaining states so stop saying that please. He won Kansas, big deal. He's not going to beat McCain in more moderate states like Ohio, Maryland, Vermont, Rhode Island, Wisconsin. And McCain doesn't even need to win a lot of these as they're proportional delegates.

 

[AlexMerced]

Yeah thinking everything the other candidates do is cause or paul is naive

but likeleyness of a brokered convention is higher, the anti-mccin vote is less divided, and it's strong

 

[Acidlump]

The race IS more likely to be brokered now because the anti-McCain vote will be less split

 

[jeff43]

Saying that the chances of a brokered convention are higher without Romney is actually contrary to Paul, but whatever.

"With Romney gone, the chances of a brokered convention are nearly zero." -Ron Paul

 

[JordanQ72]

The race IS more likely to be brokered now because the anti-McCain vote will be less split

I still don't see the reasoning behind this one. Neither Romney nor Huckabee can get enough to lock in the nomination. The point was to simply prevent McCain from getting enough. What's the difference if it's split or not as long as McCain doesn't have it?

 

[tamor]

behind the scenes political maneuvering can take all kinds of twists and turns

 

[Acidlump]

Think about it, Republicans hate McCain so they voted for either Romney, Huckabee, or Ron. Romney got the most votes out of the three so now that he is gone there votes shouldn't go to McCain. They will instead go to US and to Yuckybee

 

[jeff43]

Actually according to exit polling, McCain was only 1% behind Romney among conservatives in NH and only 1% behind Huckabee in S.C. He isn't completely hated by conservatives so you can't just assume that their votes won't go to McCain. That's not a valid assumption. Ron Paul is hated by a majority of conservatives according to polls that have been done so it's kind of contradictory to say that they'll go to Paul and even Huckabee, who conservatives also don't like, over McCain.

 

[JordanQ72]

Think about it, Republicans hate McCain so they voted for either Romney, Huckabee, or Ron. Romney got the most votes out of the three so now that he is gone there votes shouldn't go to McCain. They will instead go to US and to Yuckybee

How does this result in McCain getting less votes? Neither Romney, Huckabee, and Paul can possibly mathematically win the nomination lock in. The point is to stop McCain from getting votes. I wouldn't matter if there were 20 other candidates splitting the anti-McCain vote or just one, as long as McCain doesn't get that vote.

You're wrong anyway, the secondary choice of those three isn't the other 2, there's a substantial chunk for McCain as well.

 

[Chester Copperpot]

I think huckabee is gonna sweep the rest... brokered convention here we come, I hope all our delegates bound to toher candidates currently are ready

i think thats a pipedream my friend, unless you know something the rest of us dont.

 

[nate895]

Actually according to exit polling, McCain was only 1% behind Romney among conservatives in NH and only 1% behind Huckabee in S.C. He isn't completely hated by conservatives so you can't just assume that their votes won't go to McCain. That's not a valid assumption. Ron Paul is hated by a majority of conservatives according to polls that have been done so it's kind of contradictory to say that they'll go to Paul and even Huckabee, who conservatives also don't like, over McCain.

Yes, but most didn't vote for him, and not many will vote for him just because the media said that they would vote for him.

 

[hvac ak47]

How does this result in McCain getting less votes? Neither Romney, Huckabee, and Paul can possibly mathematically win the nomination lock in. The point is to stop McCain from getting votes. I wouldn't matter if there were 20 other candidates splitting the anti-McCain vote or just one, as long as McCain doesn't get that vote.

You're wrong anyway, the secondary choice of those three isn't the other 2, there's a substantial chunk for McCain as well.

If you divide the anti McCain vote to much in one state he wins!

If all the anti McCain votes go to one candidate McCain lost that state.

 

[nate895]

i think thats a pipedream my friend, unless you know something the rest of us dont.

He won't sweep, I think, he'll just get barely enough to go brokered, say 60% of the rest. Remember, a lot of the rest of these primaries are Mid-Western and Southern, not exactly McCain strongholds. If Huckabee can win TX and OH on the 4th, we go brokered, unless if McCain is able to build up precipitous momentums, especially after he loses the Mississippi Primary the week after.

 

[jeff43]

Yes, but most didn't vote for him, and not many will vote for him just because the media said that they would vote for him.

But they'll vote for Paul and Huckabee even though they didn't vote for Paul and Huckabee? Makes no sense. You have no idea how many Romney voters will go to each candidate or will just say fuck it and stay home. Exit polls are a sample of actual voters. NH and SC took place before it was accepted that McCain was the eventual nominee and he still did very well among conservatives, so I think the theory that none of them will vote for McCain and all of them will vote for Huckabee and Paul is ludicrous.

 

[Dan.]

How does this result in McCain getting less votes? Neither Romney, Huckabee, and Paul can possibly mathematically win the nomination lock in. The point is to stop McCain from getting votes. I wouldn't matter if there were 20 other candidates splitting the anti-McCain vote or just one, as long as McCain doesn't get that vote.

You're wrong anyway, the secondary choice of those three isn't the other 2, there's a substantial chunk for McCain as well.

Say there are 4 candidates and 100 people vote. 40 people vote for candidate A, 30 people for candidate B, 20 for C, and 10 for D. Candidate A is clearly the winner.

Now let's assume that candidate B drops out of the race, and say the majority of the supporters do not like candidate A. Now the vote comes up 40 for candidate A, 45 for candidate C, and 15 for D. Candidate C clearly wins.

It isn't about McCain getting fewer votes; it's about McCain getting a lesser percentage relative to the others.