Donald Trump has built up tremendous support in Iowa — he's very wealthy, he loves the Bible and he'd be just terrific as president of the United States. And he's very handsome.
That's according to interviews with some likely GOP caucusgoers in Iowa.
A new Des Moines Register/Bloomberg Politics Iowa Poll finds that Trump, the flamboyant real estate entrepreneur, has 23 percent support here. But Ben Carson, a soft-spoken retired neurosurgeon, has been a submarine, quietly cruising into second with 18 percent, just 5 percentage points from the front-runner.
Carson has the highest favorability rating of the 17 Republican candidates, with 79 percent who view him positively. Only 8 percent have negative feelings about him.
All the other candidates are grinding away in the single digits, in this order: Ted Cruz and Scott Walker (both 8 percent), Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio (both 6 percent), Carly Fiorina (5 percent), and Mike Huckabee and Rand Paul (both 4 percent).
"Wow," said Kedron Bardwell, a political science professor at Simpson College. "This poll will have Republican consultants shaking heads in bewilderment. Not since 1992 has anti-establishment sentiment been this strong."
Bringing up the rear are Chris Christie, Bobby Jindal and John Kasich (all with 2 percent); Rick Perry and Rick Santorum (both 1 percent); and Jim Gilmore, Lindsey Graham and George Pataki (all with less than 1 percent).
'Mad as hell' voters drawn to outsiders
Candidates who are political outsiders don't seem to be just a summer fling, as some analysts had predicted, but a budding long-term relationship five months out from the first-in-the-nation Iowa caucuses.
Combine Trump, Carson and Fiorina — three candidates who have never been elected to any public office — and their support accounts for 46 percent of the vote.
Part of what's driving their ballot share is a "mad as hell" contingent. Forty-three percent of likely GOP caucusgoers say they're mad as hell about the Internal Revenue Service; 48 percent about Democrats in Congress; 57 percent with President Barack Obama; and 58 percent with Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton.
They're not just mad at Democrats: Three-fourths are frustrated with Republicans in Congress, with 54 percent unsatisfied and 21 percent mad as hell.
Electing a nonpolitician is "becoming more important as I realize that the Republicans in Washington are no different than the Democrats," said retired engineer Craig Wiegel, 63, of Bettendorf, who participated in the Iowa Poll in May. "They tell you one thing until they're voted in, and then just go along with the Democrats."
Walker was his top choice in the May poll. Now, he is paying attention to Carson, too. Cruz, who castigates the "Washington cartel," is also a possibility, Wiegel said.
The Iowa Poll of 400 likely Republican caucusgoers was conducted Aug. 23-26 by Selzer & Co. of Des Moines. The margin of error is plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.
Carson attracting Christian conservatives
Several poll respondents describe Carson as a kind Christian whom they can trust. Carson beats Trump with Christian conservatives (23 percent to 16 percent) and also with women (20 percent to 16 percent).
Melanie Hobbs, 45, of Sioux City, a stay-at-home mother who home-schools her seven kids, names Carson as her first choice because he's "totally against abortion, and that's one of our biggest issues."
Hobbs also thinks Carson aligns with her thinking on immigration.
"We need to build a fence. We need to stop the influx of illegals," she said.
As for Trump, who is viewed favorably by 54 percent of Christian conservatives, Hobbs said she has two thoughts: "One, he is better than what we have. But two, I'm not sure I trust him. I believe he could be a charlatan. I believe he could be telling us what we want to hear, then pull stuff like Obama has. Deceive us. I just don't know enough that I could trust him."
Will Iowans reveling in the Trump and Carson love fest wake up with a political hangover at some point and wonder what happened to that great crop of governors they used to talk about?
All of the governors — Walker, Bush, Huckabee, Christie, Jindal, Kasich, Perry, Gilmore, Pataki — talk up records of accomplishment, but that's not driving caucus commitments. Only four of the nine (Walker, Huckabee, Jindal and Perry) crack the 50 percent level in favorable views from likely caucusgoers.
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