Congressional Candidate Survivor List, updated Aug 29, 2012

[Brian4Liberty]

Check out the latest list of survivors on our Candidates for US Congress thread.

Some great opportunities for wins in the General Election!

List updated on Aug 29, 2012.

General Election Candidates
(Tuesday, November 6, 2012*)
*Primary dates indicated below if Primary has not occurred yet.

US House
----------------------------------

Arizona

California

Tom McClintock (R-incumbent) CA-4 - (purity: ★★★★☆)
Greg Imus (R) CA-5 - (purity: ★★★★☆)
John Dennis (R) CA-12 - (purity: ★★★★★)
Dana Rohrabacher (R-Incumbent) CA-48 - (purity: ★★☆☆☆)

Colorado

Tisha Casida (I) CO-3 - (purity: ★★★★★)

Florida

Calen Fretts (L) FL-1

Georgia

Paul Broun (R-incumbent) GA-10 - (purity: ★★★☆☆)
Tom Graves (R-incumbent) GA-14 - (purity: ★★☆☆☆)

Idaho

Raul Labrador (R) ID-1 - (purity: ★★★★★)
Rob Oates (L) ID-1 - (purity: ★★★★★)

Indiana

Kentucky

Thomas Massie (R) KY-4 - (purity: ★★★★★)

Maryland

Eric Knowles (R) MD-3

Michigan

Justin Amash (R-incumbent) MI-3 - (purity: ★★★★★)
Kurt Haskell (D) MI-7 - (purity: ★★★★☆)
Kerry Bentivolio (R) MI-11 - (purity: ★★★★★)

Minnesota

Missouri

New Hampshire
Primary: September 11, 2012

Brendan Kelly (L) NH-1
Rick Parent (R) NH-1
Hardy Macia (L) NH-2
Dennis Lamare (R) NH-2

New York

North Carolina

Walter Jones (R-incumbent) NC-3 - (purity: ★★★★☆)

North Dakota

Eric Olson (L)

Ohio

Richard Ehrbar (L) OH-3

Oregon

Art Robinson (R) OR-4 - (purity: ★★★★★)

Pennsylvania

Mike Koffenberger (L) PA-4

Tennessee

Texas

Patrick Hisel (L) TX-12 - (purity: ★★★★★)
Steve Susman (L) TX-22
Jessica Puente Bradshaw (R) TX-34
Steve Stockman (R) TX-36 - (purity: ★★★★★)

Utah

Jason Chaffetz (R-incumbent) UT-3 - (purity: ★★★☆☆)

Virginia

Washington

John Koster (R) WA-1 (purity: ★★★★★)


US Senate
-------------------------------------
Arizona

Jeff Flake (R) - (purity: ★★★☆☆)

California

Florida

Connie Mack (R) - (purity: ★★★☆☆)

Indiana

Richard Mourdock (R) - (purity: ★★★☆☆)
Andrew Horning (L)

Maine

Maryland

Daniel Bongino (R)

Michigan

Scotty Boman (L) - (purity: ★★★★★)

Minnesota

Kurt Bills (R) - (purity: ★★★★★)

Missouri

Montana

Dan Cox (L) - (purity: ★★★★★)

Nebraska

New Mexico

Jon Barrie (I) - (purity: ★★★★★)

New York

Chris Edes (L) - (purity: ★★★★★)

Pennsylvania

Rhode Island
Primary: Sep 11, 2012

Barry Hinckley (R)

Tennessee

Texas

Ted Cruz (R) - (purity: ★★★★☆)

Virginia

Wisconsin


Green Purity indicates endorsement by Ron Paul.


Check out http://libertycandidates.com/ for more Liberty Candidate endorsements!

 

[Imperial]

It might be a good idea to also have a list of winnable races. Note that this doesn't mean likely- Bills, for example, is having a pretty tough race and will need a humongous surge if he had a shot to win. There are literally only two congressional seats where independents, let alone other third party candidates, can win this cycle, and neither of them have running. Other seats are so safe they aren't worst listing. So here are actual winnable races. While races rated Likely D or Lean D we have less of a shot in, upsets happen and so I keep them on the list.

Incumbents facing re-election

Tom McClintock* (CA-4)
Dana Rohrabacher* (CA-48)
Paul Broun* (GA-10)
Tom Graves* (GA-14)
Raul Labrador* (ID-01)
Justin Amash* (MI-03)
Walter Jones* (NC-03)
Jim Duncan* (TN-02)
Roscoe Bartlett* (MD-01)
Jason Chaffetz* (UT-03)
David Schweikert (AZ-06)

All of these guys are sometimes allies in the House. Of them, all are safe but Amash and Bartlett. Amash is in a likely Republican race, while Bartlett is stuck with a district that, after redistricting, is much friendlier to his opponent. I predict all incumbents win, excepting Bartlett. 10-1-0.

Open seats and challengers

Greg Imus (CA-05)
Thomas Massie (KY-04)
Ted Yoho (FL-09)
Art Robinson (OR-04)
Steve Stockman (TX-36)
Mia Love (UT-04)
John Koster (WA-01)
Kerry Bentivolio (MI-11)
Dan Halloran (NY-06)

Of these races, three are safe and will be Congressmen in the fall (Stockman, Yoho, and Massie). All three are with us on most of the issues. Imus is in a Republican vs. Republican race in California- he is an underdog, but the race is winnable. Bentivolio will likely win in November. Koster is in a lean Democratic seat facing self-funding former Microsoft exec Susan DelBene, Love is in a tossup against Rep. Jim Matheson, and Robinson is running in a likely Democratic seat, as is Halloran. I predict Koster, Imus, Halloran and Robinson lose, while Love is difficult to predict. 4-4-1.

Senate races

Jeff Flake (AZ)
Richard Mourdock (IN)
Connie Mack (FL)
Daniel Bongino (MD)
Kurt Bills (MN)
Barry Hinckley (RI)
Ted Cruz (TX)

Of these, Flake and Cruz are essentially shoe-ins. Mack is in a tossup race, while Mourdock's is lean Republican. Bills, Bongino, and Hinckley are all in uphill races that are basically safe Democratic; they are unlikely to win. 3-3-1.


Senators Not Up For Re-Election:
Jim DeMint (SC)
Rand Paul (KY)
Mike Lee (UT)

That leaves us a base of three in the US Senate. 3-0-0.

In the next Congress, we should have a de facto liberty caucus of 6-7 Senators and 14-15 Representatives.

EDIT: An interesting task would be to also round up many of the super so-con/fiscon types who are willing to lean our way on things like the debt ceiling, budget issues, etc.

 

[AJ Antimony]

+rep to Imperial

Flake's race is expected to be fairly close. Democrats can compete in AZ when they actually field strong candidates. Typical state-wide Democratic candidates are usually nobodys because the best candidates (sitting Congressmen, legislature leadership) don't want to risk losing their safe seats for a state-wide seat they are likely to lose.

The Democrat in this race is a former US Surgeon General (Bush appointee), Richard Carmona. He has nothing to lose. Because he's never really held office in AZ, I assume he's a bit of an unknown. I suspect it will take time to make himself known to voters. This should help Flake. Read the wiki on Carmona, he doesn't look like a typical Dem. It looks like he's a registered Independent and was once asked by AZ Republicans to run for Congress.

 

[FSP-Rebel]

Seriously, wtf is Oates doing running against Raul in ID-1? Raul is YAL supported, incumbent, 5 stars, barely eeked out 51% of the vote and yet the Lib candidate pulls ~2% from him. It's bullshit like this that drives me crazy and gives me a bad taste in my mouth about the LP. This is supposed to be a gimme race. That said, I think Koster has a fair shot in WA-1.

 

[GeorgiaAvenger]

We need to add the Democrat Senate candidate in Tennessee. Whats his name?

 

[Brian4Liberty]

We need to add the Democrat Senate candidate in Tennessee. Whats his name?

Mark Clayton. He seems a bit controversial. Is his big issue "gays", or is that media smear?