IOWA
After declaring his candidacy, Paul started off polling around 5th place in Iowa with 8% according to PPP's 5/27-5/30 poll results. A few weeks later, the Des Moines Register confirmed this level of support by showing him at 7% in their 6/19-6/22 results. The only difference between their poll and PPP's was that this time Paul was tied for 4th place with Newt Gingrich and only 3 points behind Herman Cain. Shortly thereafter (6/26-6/30), Paul's level of support in the state was confirmed for a second time by 'The Iowa Republican' in a poll that had him in 4th place again but this time with just 6% of the vote: still trailing Cain by 3 points but now ahead of Gingrich by 2. A little over a week later, Magellen Strategies had him tied for 4th with Gingrich (again) at 5% in their 7/10-7/11 results. Again, Paul trailed Cain by only 3 points.
During the time above (5/27-7/11), Paul's numbers seemed to be steadilly decreasing (from 8% to 7% to 6% to 5%). HOWEVER, about a month later, in their 8/4 poll results, Rasmussen Reports showed Paul in 3rd place with 16%: 12 points ahead of Cain, 11 points ahead of Gingrich, 4 points ahead of Rick Perry (who registered 4th), just 5 points under Romney (2nd) and 6 points under Bachmann (1st). Two weeks later (8/19-8/21 - after the Ames straw poll), PPP confirmed this rise by showing Paul in 4th place with 12%: 6 points ahead of Cain, 5 points ahead of Gingrich, 2 points ahead of Sarah Palin, 6 points under Romney (who came in 2nd) and just 3 points under Bachmann (3rd). Perry took first in this poll with 21%. Just a few days later (8/22-8/23), Magellen Strategies also showed Paul in 4th place; this time with 9%, leading Cain by 3 points and Gingrich by 5. About a week after that in a poll conducted on 8/31 by Rasmussen Reports, Paul was still ranked at 4th place (with 14%) only this time he was just 4 points away from Bachmann's 2nd place and 3 points from Romney's 3rd place. He was also 10 points ahead of Cain and 12 points ahead of Gingrich. Perry came out on top once again with 29%.
IOWA SUMMARY
What's significant about these results is that Paul started off by polling around 5th/4th place up until August. He seemed to be in a real competition with Newt Gingrich and Herman Cain early in the game but as we can see overcame the former Speaker of the House and the ex-Chairman of the Kansas City Federal Reserve. In August, Paul went on to take 3rd but Perry's candidacy changed things up a bit, knocking Paul back to a commanding 4th place but in striking distance of not only 3rd but also 2nd place. THIS IS GREAT NEWS! Honestly, who would have ever thought that Ron Paul could not only place 2nd/3rd in a Republican nomination process but possibly be on the path to actually win a state? Certainly not the media and they most definltely don't seem to be very willing to share this information with the American people. It's up to people like you and me to share this information with all of the naysayers who believe that Paul can't even win a state and is therefore unelectable.
NEW HAMPSHIRE
The first poll for NH after Paul's announcement was conducted from 5/18-5/22 by CNN, WMUR and the University of New Hampshire; and they showed him in 2nd with 9%: 3 points ahead of Gingrich, 4 points above Palin and 5 points above Bachmann and Cain. A few weeks later (6/1-6/8), the Boston Globe conducted a poll that showed Paul in 3rd with 6%: 3 points above Gingrich, 2 points above Bachmann and Cain, 1 point above Palin. In this poll, surprise candidate Rudy Giuliani managed to garner 2nd place with 9%. A week later (6/14-6/15), after the NH debate, Magellen Strategies released a poll showing Paul tied with Bachmann for 2nd place with 10% each beating out Palin by 3 points, Cain by 6 and Gingrich by 7. About a week and a half after that (6/25-6/27), Suffolk University released a poll showing Paul in 3rd with 8%: 4 points above Palin, 6 points ahead of Perry, Cain and Gingrich as well as just 3 points under Bachmann (who came in 2nd). During that same time (6/21-7/1), WMUR and UNH were conducting another poll that also showed Paul in 3rd, this time with 7%, which was 3 points ahead of Perry, 4 points above Palin, 5 points above Cain, 6 points above Gingrich and just 5 points under Bachmann. During 6/30-7/5, PPP conducted a poll that showed Paul once again at 9%: 2 points above Perry and Cain as well as 5 above Gingrich. However, this time he was in 4th, falling 2 points under Sarah Palin and 9 points behind Bachmann. BUT, a few weeks ago from 8/15-8/16, Magellen Strategies conducted another poll and this time Paul was listed with 14%, rising back to 3rd place: 4 points ahead of Bachmann, 11 ahead of Cain, 12 ahead of Gingrich and just 4 points behind Rick Perry (who came in 2nd).
NEW HAMPSHIRE SUMMARY
Like Iowa, these results are also very significant. Early in the game, Paul was consistently battling with Michele Bachmann in the state. For a while it seemed that Bachmann had won the war, but fortunately for us the latest poll shows Paul edging her out by 4 points. Over the four months he's been in the race, Paul has certainly put up a good game by staying in the range of 3rd place within this state. It shows that Paul is not only a strong force to be reckoned with in NH but also within striking distance of 2nd place! AGAIN, THIS IS GREAT!
Summary of Paul's Campaign So Far
While the media might not want to acknowledge it, the results above prove that Ron Paul is a top tier candidate for the GOP's 2012 nomination. Some people aren't taking into account that Iowa and New Hampshire are the only states in which Dr. Paul has invested serious time and money into. As you can see from above, Paul is within striking distance of 2nd place in both of these states. If things continue to go Paul's way, a few things could happen: 1) he wins both of those states, 2) he wins one of those states or 3) he comes close to winning in both of those states. What's important is this: either of those scenarios would result in Paul gaining a great deal of momentum. And if Paul can gain the right amount of momentum, he can go on to win other states because people who like him but right now wouldn't consider voting for him because they currently don't think he has a chance to win would be swayed into casting their vote for him. No one can deny that this would happen if Paul gained the right amount of momentum before it's too late. Winning or coming close in both Iowa and New Hampshire would seriously boost Paul's campaign into being able to go on to win other states and become the nominee. IMO, it's up to the people in IOWA and NEW HAMPSHIRE! The REVOLUTION is depending on you!
NATIONAL STATUS
The first national poll for the GOP after Paul's announcement was conducted from 5/20-5/24 by Gallup; in it, Paul placed 3rd with 10% of the vote - just 7 points behind Romney and 5 points behind Palin but also 5 points ahead of Bachmann, 2 points above Cain and 1 point ahead of Gingrich. From 5/23-5/25, PPP conducted a poll showing Paul, Bachmann and Gingrich tied for 3rd with 9% each. In this poll, Herman Cain managed to grab 2nd place with 12% of the vote and Palin and Romney were tied for 1st with just 16% each - again leaving Paul just 7 points behind the supposed frontrunners. Around that same time (5/24-5/26), CNN released a poll showing Paul in 3rd with 12% of the vote; 5 points ahead of Bachmann, 4 points ahead of Gingrich and 2 points ahead of Cain. Also, in this poll, Paul was only 1 point behind Palin and 3 points behind Romney. That put Paul within 2 points of polling 2nd and 4 points of polling 1st!!!
About a week later (from 5/31-6/13), a series of polls were conducted by 8 different outlets.
From 5/31-6/6, Quinnipiac conducted a poll showing Paul tied with Gingrich for 4th place at 8%. Cain managed to beat them out for 3rd place by just 1%. That means Paul was only 2 points away from 3rd place and just 7 points away from 2nd (Palin w/ 15%). In this poll, Bachmann was in 5th with 6%.
From 6/2-6/5, ABC News and the Washington Post conducted a poll that also showed Paul tied with Gingrich only in theirs it was for 3rd place instead of 4th and instead of 8% they had 6% each. Cain was in 4th with 4% and Bachmann was tied with Rick Perry for 5th place with just 3% each.
From 6/3-6/6, Reuters conducted a poll showing Paul in 3rd place with 8%, beating out Gingrich by 4 points and Cain by 2. As in the poll above, tied for 5th were Perry and Bachmann; only in this poll they garnered 5% each.
From 6/3-6/7, CNN conducted a poll that showed Paul in 4th with 7%. Gingrich and Cain were tied for 3rd with 10% each. Bachmann was in 5th with 4%.
From 6/5-6/7, FOX conducted a poll that showed Paul in 4th with just 5%. Tied for 3rd were Gingrich and Cain with 7% each and tied for 5th were Bachmann and Rick Santorum with 4% each. Palin placed 2nd with 12% of the vote.
From 6/8-6/11, Gallup conducted a poll that showed Paul in 4th at 7%. Just 2 points above him was Cain. In 5th place was Santorum with 6% and tied for 6th were Bachmann and Gingrich with 5% each.
From 6/9-6/12, PPP conducted a poll that had Paul in 6th place at 7%. Just 1 point above him was Bachmann and 2 points above him was Gingrich. In this poll, Cain managed to acquire 2nd place with 17% which was 2 points ahead of Palin who came in 3rd.
From 6/9-6/13, NBC News and the Wall St. Journal conducted a poll that placed Paul in 5th place with 7%. In this poll, Paul was 1 point away from 4th (Perry w/ 8%), 5 points away from 3rd (Cain w/ 12) and 7 points from 2nd (Palin w/ 14%). In 6th place was Gingrich with 6%, followed by Santorum with 4% and Bachmann with 3%.
SHORT SUMMARY
As you can see, the eight polls above show that there was an extreme competition between either Paul/Gingrich, Paul/Cain or Paul/Gingrich/Cain over the course of about two weeks - leading right up to the debate that was to be held on the night of 6/13. Neither Bachmann nor Perry were every really a factor during this time.
AFTER THE JUNE 13TH DEBATE
On 6/14, Rasmussen Reports conducted a poll that again showed Paul in 5th with 7%: He was just 4 points away from polling 3rd. Gingrich came in 4th with 9% and Cain came in 3rd with 10%. After her official announcement and her first showing at a national debate, Bachmann managed to pull off a 2nd place showing with 19%.
A week and a half later, a poll conducted from 6/26-6/28 by FOX once again showed Paul in 5th place with just 7%: only 6 points from tying Perry for 2nd, 4 from tying Bachmann for 3rd and 1 from tying Palin for 4th. Romney placed 1st with 18%. In 6th place and 2 points behind Paul was Cain. Gingrich tied with Huntsman for 7th place with 3%.
From 7/5-7/11, Quinnipiac conducted another poll. Paul was tied with Gingrich again, this time for 6th place with just 5% each: 7 points away from tying Palin's 12% (3rd) and just 5 points away from tying Perry's 10% (4th). Bachmann was in 2nd with 14%. In 5th was Cain, who again beat out Gingrich and Paul by just 1 point.
Starting a few days later, another 7 other polls were conducted.
On 7/14-7/17, ABC News and the Washington Post conducted a poll that showed Paul garnering just 7% of the vote and tying for 5th place with Cain: 2 points away from overcoming Perry's 8% (4th) and just 6 points away from tying Bachmann's 13% (3rd). In second was Palin with 16% and Gingrich placed 6th with 4%.
During the exact same time as the above poll was held, NBC News and the Wall St. Journal conducted their own. For the first time in over a month, Paul finally rose above 5th place and grabbed 4th with 9% of the vote. Just 1 point below him was Gingrich and in 6th place with 5% was Cain. Perry took 3rd place with 11% and Bachmann placed 2nd with 16%. This placed Paul 7 points within tying for 2nd and just 2 points away from 3rd!
From 7/15-7/17, PPP conducted another poll that again showed Paul with 9% but this time in 5th place. However, he was only 1 point behind Cain, 2 points behind Perry and 3 points behind Palin. That means he was only 4 points away from polling 2nd.
FOX conducted a poll from 7/17-7/19 and had Paul tied with Palin in 4th place with 9% each. This was only 8 points away from 1st (Romney w/ 17%), 5 away from 2nd (Perry w/ 14%), and 1 from 3rd (Bachmann w/ 10%). Cain got 5% and Gingrich got 4%.
The next two polls (CNN, 7/18-7/20 and Gallup, 7/20-7/24) had the candidates ranked in the following order: Romney (16%, 17%), Perry (14%, 15%), Palin (13%, 12%), Bachmann (12%, 11%), Paul (8%, 8%).
Another poll conducted from 7/20-7/24 was the one by Pew Research. This poll had Paul in 4th with 9%. Perry was only 3 points ahead with 12% and Palin/Bachmann were tied for 3rd with 11%. Again, Paul was only 4 points away from placing 2nd.
SHORT SUMMARY
Up until the next poll, Paul had not broken single digits nationally. However, as you can see, he was never that far from polling within range of 4th, 3rd and even 2nd place in some instances.
On 7/28, Rasmussen Reports released a new poll. Paul was still in 4th but this time he had 10% and was just 6 points within striking Bachmann's 16% (3rd). Cain got 9% and Gingrich got 6%.
CNN conducted another poll from 8/5-8/7. In this poll, Paul tied Palin for 3rd place with 12%. This was well within striking distance of Romney's 17% (1st) and Perry's 15% (2nd). Bachmann came in 4th with 7%, Gingrich got 5% and Cain tied Huntsman for 7th place with 4%.
In a USA Today and Gallup poll conducted from 8/4-8/7, Paul placed 3rd with 14%, beating out Bachmann by 1 point, Gingrich by 7 and Cain by 10. He was also only 3 points within tying Perry's 17% (2nd). Romney came in 1st with 24%.
* In a FOX poll conducted from 8/7-8/9, Paul tied Gingrich for 5th with 6%: 7 points under Perry's 13% (2nd), 2 points under Palin's 8% (3rd) and just 1 point under Bachmann's 7% (4th). Cain came in 6th with 5%. ---- * FOX trying to mess with Paul's polling numbers?? Even if that's the case, Paul was only points away from 4th, 3rd and 2nd in this poll. Also, this is ONE poll that he didn't do as well in. That doesn't disqualify him from being a frontrunner.
AFTER THE AMES STRAW POLL
On 8/15, two days after the Ames straw poll in Iowa, Rasmussen Reports conducted a poll that showed Paul in 4th place with 9%: 4 points ahead of Gingrich, 3 ahead of Cain and just 4 points away from tying Bachmann's 13% (3rd).
From 8/17-8/21, Gallup conducted a poll that showed Paul and Palin tied for 3rd with 11%. If you look four polls up you can see that this is not the first time the two have been tied for 3rd place. This also put Paul just 3% away from tying Romney's 14% (2nd). Bachmann came in 4th with 7%, Cain came in 5th with 4% and Gingrich/Santorum tied for 6th with 3%.
* From 8/18-8/21, PPP conducted a poll showing Paul in 6th with just 6%: 7 points away from Palin's 13% (3rd) and just 4 points away from Bachmann's 10% (4th). Gingrich and Cain tied for 5th in this poll with 7% each. ---- * Another poll that gave Paul just 6% after the Ames straw poll. I find this very untruthful, but again, whatever. Paul was only 4 points away from 4th place. That means a lot.
* From 8/24-8/25, CNN conducted a poll that showed Paul and Gingrich tied for 5th with just 6%. However, this was only 8 points away from tying Romney's 14% (2nd), 4 points away from Palin's 10% (3rd) and just 3 points away from Bachmann's 9% (4th). ---- * Same explanation as the poll above... IDK who these people were questioning when they conducted these polls.
From 8/16-8/27, Quinnipiac conducted a poll that again showed Paul in 5th, this time with 9%. He trailed Palin's 3rd place by only 2 points and Bachmann's 4th place by only 1. Can came in 6th with 5% and Gingrich came in 7th with just 3%.
In an NBC News and Wall St. Journal poll conducted from 8/27-8/31, Paul came in a distant 3rd (to Perry's 38% and Romney's 23%) with 9%, beating out Bachmann by 1 point, Cain and Gingrich by 4 points each, Santorum by 6 points and Huntsman by 7 points.
In a Politico poll conducted from 8/28-8/31, Paul tied with Bachman for 3rd place with 10%. The two were only 7 points within tying Romney's 17% (2nd). They also beat out both Gingrich and Santorum by 5%, Cain by 6% and Huntsman by 9%.
In a FOX poll conducted from 8/29-8/31, Paul came in 4th with 7%. He was only 1 point behind Palin (who came in 3rd). He beat out Bachmann and Cain by 3 points, Gingrich and Santorum by 4 points and Huntsman by 6 points.
From 8/16-9/1, ABC News and the Washington Post conducted a poll that showed Paul in 4th place with 8%: 6 points behind Palin's 14% (3rd) but beating out Bachmann by 2 points, Gingrich by 4, Cain by 5, Santorum by 6 and Huntsman by 7.
SHORT SUMMERY
Paul is pretty much polling around 10% nationally for the GOP nomination. After four months of official campaigning and most of that campaigning being done in just two states (IA and NH), I'd say that's a very good position to be in right now. There's still a long way to go.
POLLING AGAINST OBAMA
From 7/14-7/17, a poll conducted by ABC News and the Washington Post showed Paul losing to President Obama by 10 points in a 52% to 42% matchup. In this same poll, only Romney did better (losing to the President by 2 points in a 49% to 47% matchup). Perry lost by 13% (53% to 40%) and Bachmann lost by 15% (55% to 40%).
After the Ames straw poll, from 8/15-8/16, Rasmussen Reports conducted a poll that showed the President beating Paul by only 1% in a 39% to 38% matchup!
Also after the Ames straw poll, in a Gallup poll conducted from 8/17-8/18, Paul lost to the President by only 2 points in a 47% to 45% matchup. In that same poll, Romney essentially tied Paul's record by also losing to the President by just 2 points (48% to 46%) and Bachmann lost by 4% (48% to 44%). Only Perry did better than everyone by tying the President 47% to 47%.
GENERAL ELECTION SUMMARY
Anyone who denies Paul's capability to compete against Obama and possibly even defeat him is lying to themselves and whoever else they are trying to convince.
After declaring his candidacy, Paul started off polling around 5th place in Iowa with 8% according to PPP's 5/27-5/30 poll results. A few weeks later, the Des Moines Register confirmed this level of support by showing him at 7% in their 6/19-6/22 results. The only difference between their poll and PPP's was that this time Paul was tied for 4th place with Newt Gingrich and only 3 points behind Herman Cain. Shortly thereafter (6/26-6/30), Paul's level of support in the state was confirmed for a second time by 'The Iowa Republican' in a poll that had him in 4th place again but this time with just 6% of the vote: still trailing Cain by 3 points but now ahead of Gingrich by 2. A little over a week later, Magellen Strategies had him tied for 4th with Gingrich (again) at 5% in their 7/10-7/11 results. Again, Paul trailed Cain by only 3 points.
During the time above (5/27-7/11), Paul's numbers seemed to be steadilly decreasing (from 8% to 7% to 6% to 5%). HOWEVER, about a month later, in their 8/4 poll results, Rasmussen Reports showed Paul in 3rd place with 16%: 12 points ahead of Cain, 11 points ahead of Gingrich, 4 points ahead of Rick Perry (who registered 4th), just 5 points under Romney (2nd) and 6 points under Bachmann (1st). Two weeks later (8/19-8/21 - after the Ames straw poll), PPP confirmed this rise by showing Paul in 4th place with 12%: 6 points ahead of Cain, 5 points ahead of Gingrich, 2 points ahead of Sarah Palin, 6 points under Romney (who came in 2nd) and just 3 points under Bachmann (3rd). Perry took first in this poll with 21%. Just a few days later (8/22-8/23), Magellen Strategies also showed Paul in 4th place; this time with 9%, leading Cain by 3 points and Gingrich by 5. About a week after that in a poll conducted on 8/31 by Rasmussen Reports, Paul was still ranked at 4th place (with 14%) only this time he was just 4 points away from Bachmann's 2nd place and 3 points from Romney's 3rd place. He was also 10 points ahead of Cain and 12 points ahead of Gingrich. Perry came out on top once again with 29%.
IOWA SUMMARY
What's significant about these results is that Paul started off by polling around 5th/4th place up until August. He seemed to be in a real competition with Newt Gingrich and Herman Cain early in the game but as we can see overcame the former Speaker of the House and the ex-Chairman of the Kansas City Federal Reserve. In August, Paul went on to take 3rd but Perry's candidacy changed things up a bit, knocking Paul back to a commanding 4th place but in striking distance of not only 3rd but also 2nd place. THIS IS GREAT NEWS! Honestly, who would have ever thought that Ron Paul could not only place 2nd/3rd in a Republican nomination process but possibly be on the path to actually win a state? Certainly not the media and they most definltely don't seem to be very willing to share this information with the American people. It's up to people like you and me to share this information with all of the naysayers who believe that Paul can't even win a state and is therefore unelectable.
NEW HAMPSHIRE
The first poll for NH after Paul's announcement was conducted from 5/18-5/22 by CNN, WMUR and the University of New Hampshire; and they showed him in 2nd with 9%: 3 points ahead of Gingrich, 4 points above Palin and 5 points above Bachmann and Cain. A few weeks later (6/1-6/8), the Boston Globe conducted a poll that showed Paul in 3rd with 6%: 3 points above Gingrich, 2 points above Bachmann and Cain, 1 point above Palin. In this poll, surprise candidate Rudy Giuliani managed to garner 2nd place with 9%. A week later (6/14-6/15), after the NH debate, Magellen Strategies released a poll showing Paul tied with Bachmann for 2nd place with 10% each beating out Palin by 3 points, Cain by 6 and Gingrich by 7. About a week and a half after that (6/25-6/27), Suffolk University released a poll showing Paul in 3rd with 8%: 4 points above Palin, 6 points ahead of Perry, Cain and Gingrich as well as just 3 points under Bachmann (who came in 2nd). During that same time (6/21-7/1), WMUR and UNH were conducting another poll that also showed Paul in 3rd, this time with 7%, which was 3 points ahead of Perry, 4 points above Palin, 5 points above Cain, 6 points above Gingrich and just 5 points under Bachmann. During 6/30-7/5, PPP conducted a poll that showed Paul once again at 9%: 2 points above Perry and Cain as well as 5 above Gingrich. However, this time he was in 4th, falling 2 points under Sarah Palin and 9 points behind Bachmann. BUT, a few weeks ago from 8/15-8/16, Magellen Strategies conducted another poll and this time Paul was listed with 14%, rising back to 3rd place: 4 points ahead of Bachmann, 11 ahead of Cain, 12 ahead of Gingrich and just 4 points behind Rick Perry (who came in 2nd).
NEW HAMPSHIRE SUMMARY
Like Iowa, these results are also very significant. Early in the game, Paul was consistently battling with Michele Bachmann in the state. For a while it seemed that Bachmann had won the war, but fortunately for us the latest poll shows Paul edging her out by 4 points. Over the four months he's been in the race, Paul has certainly put up a good game by staying in the range of 3rd place within this state. It shows that Paul is not only a strong force to be reckoned with in NH but also within striking distance of 2nd place! AGAIN, THIS IS GREAT!
Summary of Paul's Campaign So Far
While the media might not want to acknowledge it, the results above prove that Ron Paul is a top tier candidate for the GOP's 2012 nomination. Some people aren't taking into account that Iowa and New Hampshire are the only states in which Dr. Paul has invested serious time and money into. As you can see from above, Paul is within striking distance of 2nd place in both of these states. If things continue to go Paul's way, a few things could happen: 1) he wins both of those states, 2) he wins one of those states or 3) he comes close to winning in both of those states. What's important is this: either of those scenarios would result in Paul gaining a great deal of momentum. And if Paul can gain the right amount of momentum, he can go on to win other states because people who like him but right now wouldn't consider voting for him because they currently don't think he has a chance to win would be swayed into casting their vote for him. No one can deny that this would happen if Paul gained the right amount of momentum before it's too late. Winning or coming close in both Iowa and New Hampshire would seriously boost Paul's campaign into being able to go on to win other states and become the nominee. IMO, it's up to the people in IOWA and NEW HAMPSHIRE! The REVOLUTION is depending on you!
NATIONAL STATUS
The first national poll for the GOP after Paul's announcement was conducted from 5/20-5/24 by Gallup; in it, Paul placed 3rd with 10% of the vote - just 7 points behind Romney and 5 points behind Palin but also 5 points ahead of Bachmann, 2 points above Cain and 1 point ahead of Gingrich. From 5/23-5/25, PPP conducted a poll showing Paul, Bachmann and Gingrich tied for 3rd with 9% each. In this poll, Herman Cain managed to grab 2nd place with 12% of the vote and Palin and Romney were tied for 1st with just 16% each - again leaving Paul just 7 points behind the supposed frontrunners. Around that same time (5/24-5/26), CNN released a poll showing Paul in 3rd with 12% of the vote; 5 points ahead of Bachmann, 4 points ahead of Gingrich and 2 points ahead of Cain. Also, in this poll, Paul was only 1 point behind Palin and 3 points behind Romney. That put Paul within 2 points of polling 2nd and 4 points of polling 1st!!!
About a week later (from 5/31-6/13), a series of polls were conducted by 8 different outlets.
From 5/31-6/6, Quinnipiac conducted a poll showing Paul tied with Gingrich for 4th place at 8%. Cain managed to beat them out for 3rd place by just 1%. That means Paul was only 2 points away from 3rd place and just 7 points away from 2nd (Palin w/ 15%). In this poll, Bachmann was in 5th with 6%.
From 6/2-6/5, ABC News and the Washington Post conducted a poll that also showed Paul tied with Gingrich only in theirs it was for 3rd place instead of 4th and instead of 8% they had 6% each. Cain was in 4th with 4% and Bachmann was tied with Rick Perry for 5th place with just 3% each.
From 6/3-6/6, Reuters conducted a poll showing Paul in 3rd place with 8%, beating out Gingrich by 4 points and Cain by 2. As in the poll above, tied for 5th were Perry and Bachmann; only in this poll they garnered 5% each.
From 6/3-6/7, CNN conducted a poll that showed Paul in 4th with 7%. Gingrich and Cain were tied for 3rd with 10% each. Bachmann was in 5th with 4%.
From 6/5-6/7, FOX conducted a poll that showed Paul in 4th with just 5%. Tied for 3rd were Gingrich and Cain with 7% each and tied for 5th were Bachmann and Rick Santorum with 4% each. Palin placed 2nd with 12% of the vote.
From 6/8-6/11, Gallup conducted a poll that showed Paul in 4th at 7%. Just 2 points above him was Cain. In 5th place was Santorum with 6% and tied for 6th were Bachmann and Gingrich with 5% each.
From 6/9-6/12, PPP conducted a poll that had Paul in 6th place at 7%. Just 1 point above him was Bachmann and 2 points above him was Gingrich. In this poll, Cain managed to acquire 2nd place with 17% which was 2 points ahead of Palin who came in 3rd.
From 6/9-6/13, NBC News and the Wall St. Journal conducted a poll that placed Paul in 5th place with 7%. In this poll, Paul was 1 point away from 4th (Perry w/ 8%), 5 points away from 3rd (Cain w/ 12) and 7 points from 2nd (Palin w/ 14%). In 6th place was Gingrich with 6%, followed by Santorum with 4% and Bachmann with 3%.
SHORT SUMMARY
As you can see, the eight polls above show that there was an extreme competition between either Paul/Gingrich, Paul/Cain or Paul/Gingrich/Cain over the course of about two weeks - leading right up to the debate that was to be held on the night of 6/13. Neither Bachmann nor Perry were every really a factor during this time.
AFTER THE JUNE 13TH DEBATE
On 6/14, Rasmussen Reports conducted a poll that again showed Paul in 5th with 7%: He was just 4 points away from polling 3rd. Gingrich came in 4th with 9% and Cain came in 3rd with 10%. After her official announcement and her first showing at a national debate, Bachmann managed to pull off a 2nd place showing with 19%.
A week and a half later, a poll conducted from 6/26-6/28 by FOX once again showed Paul in 5th place with just 7%: only 6 points from tying Perry for 2nd, 4 from tying Bachmann for 3rd and 1 from tying Palin for 4th. Romney placed 1st with 18%. In 6th place and 2 points behind Paul was Cain. Gingrich tied with Huntsman for 7th place with 3%.
From 7/5-7/11, Quinnipiac conducted another poll. Paul was tied with Gingrich again, this time for 6th place with just 5% each: 7 points away from tying Palin's 12% (3rd) and just 5 points away from tying Perry's 10% (4th). Bachmann was in 2nd with 14%. In 5th was Cain, who again beat out Gingrich and Paul by just 1 point.
Starting a few days later, another 7 other polls were conducted.
On 7/14-7/17, ABC News and the Washington Post conducted a poll that showed Paul garnering just 7% of the vote and tying for 5th place with Cain: 2 points away from overcoming Perry's 8% (4th) and just 6 points away from tying Bachmann's 13% (3rd). In second was Palin with 16% and Gingrich placed 6th with 4%.
During the exact same time as the above poll was held, NBC News and the Wall St. Journal conducted their own. For the first time in over a month, Paul finally rose above 5th place and grabbed 4th with 9% of the vote. Just 1 point below him was Gingrich and in 6th place with 5% was Cain. Perry took 3rd place with 11% and Bachmann placed 2nd with 16%. This placed Paul 7 points within tying for 2nd and just 2 points away from 3rd!
From 7/15-7/17, PPP conducted another poll that again showed Paul with 9% but this time in 5th place. However, he was only 1 point behind Cain, 2 points behind Perry and 3 points behind Palin. That means he was only 4 points away from polling 2nd.
FOX conducted a poll from 7/17-7/19 and had Paul tied with Palin in 4th place with 9% each. This was only 8 points away from 1st (Romney w/ 17%), 5 away from 2nd (Perry w/ 14%), and 1 from 3rd (Bachmann w/ 10%). Cain got 5% and Gingrich got 4%.
The next two polls (CNN, 7/18-7/20 and Gallup, 7/20-7/24) had the candidates ranked in the following order: Romney (16%, 17%), Perry (14%, 15%), Palin (13%, 12%), Bachmann (12%, 11%), Paul (8%, 8%).
Another poll conducted from 7/20-7/24 was the one by Pew Research. This poll had Paul in 4th with 9%. Perry was only 3 points ahead with 12% and Palin/Bachmann were tied for 3rd with 11%. Again, Paul was only 4 points away from placing 2nd.
SHORT SUMMARY
Up until the next poll, Paul had not broken single digits nationally. However, as you can see, he was never that far from polling within range of 4th, 3rd and even 2nd place in some instances.
On 7/28, Rasmussen Reports released a new poll. Paul was still in 4th but this time he had 10% and was just 6 points within striking Bachmann's 16% (3rd). Cain got 9% and Gingrich got 6%.
CNN conducted another poll from 8/5-8/7. In this poll, Paul tied Palin for 3rd place with 12%. This was well within striking distance of Romney's 17% (1st) and Perry's 15% (2nd). Bachmann came in 4th with 7%, Gingrich got 5% and Cain tied Huntsman for 7th place with 4%.
In a USA Today and Gallup poll conducted from 8/4-8/7, Paul placed 3rd with 14%, beating out Bachmann by 1 point, Gingrich by 7 and Cain by 10. He was also only 3 points within tying Perry's 17% (2nd). Romney came in 1st with 24%.
* In a FOX poll conducted from 8/7-8/9, Paul tied Gingrich for 5th with 6%: 7 points under Perry's 13% (2nd), 2 points under Palin's 8% (3rd) and just 1 point under Bachmann's 7% (4th). Cain came in 6th with 5%. ---- * FOX trying to mess with Paul's polling numbers?? Even if that's the case, Paul was only points away from 4th, 3rd and 2nd in this poll. Also, this is ONE poll that he didn't do as well in. That doesn't disqualify him from being a frontrunner.
AFTER THE AMES STRAW POLL
On 8/15, two days after the Ames straw poll in Iowa, Rasmussen Reports conducted a poll that showed Paul in 4th place with 9%: 4 points ahead of Gingrich, 3 ahead of Cain and just 4 points away from tying Bachmann's 13% (3rd).
From 8/17-8/21, Gallup conducted a poll that showed Paul and Palin tied for 3rd with 11%. If you look four polls up you can see that this is not the first time the two have been tied for 3rd place. This also put Paul just 3% away from tying Romney's 14% (2nd). Bachmann came in 4th with 7%, Cain came in 5th with 4% and Gingrich/Santorum tied for 6th with 3%.
* From 8/18-8/21, PPP conducted a poll showing Paul in 6th with just 6%: 7 points away from Palin's 13% (3rd) and just 4 points away from Bachmann's 10% (4th). Gingrich and Cain tied for 5th in this poll with 7% each. ---- * Another poll that gave Paul just 6% after the Ames straw poll. I find this very untruthful, but again, whatever. Paul was only 4 points away from 4th place. That means a lot.
* From 8/24-8/25, CNN conducted a poll that showed Paul and Gingrich tied for 5th with just 6%. However, this was only 8 points away from tying Romney's 14% (2nd), 4 points away from Palin's 10% (3rd) and just 3 points away from Bachmann's 9% (4th). ---- * Same explanation as the poll above... IDK who these people were questioning when they conducted these polls.
From 8/16-8/27, Quinnipiac conducted a poll that again showed Paul in 5th, this time with 9%. He trailed Palin's 3rd place by only 2 points and Bachmann's 4th place by only 1. Can came in 6th with 5% and Gingrich came in 7th with just 3%.
In an NBC News and Wall St. Journal poll conducted from 8/27-8/31, Paul came in a distant 3rd (to Perry's 38% and Romney's 23%) with 9%, beating out Bachmann by 1 point, Cain and Gingrich by 4 points each, Santorum by 6 points and Huntsman by 7 points.
In a Politico poll conducted from 8/28-8/31, Paul tied with Bachman for 3rd place with 10%. The two were only 7 points within tying Romney's 17% (2nd). They also beat out both Gingrich and Santorum by 5%, Cain by 6% and Huntsman by 9%.
In a FOX poll conducted from 8/29-8/31, Paul came in 4th with 7%. He was only 1 point behind Palin (who came in 3rd). He beat out Bachmann and Cain by 3 points, Gingrich and Santorum by 4 points and Huntsman by 6 points.
From 8/16-9/1, ABC News and the Washington Post conducted a poll that showed Paul in 4th place with 8%: 6 points behind Palin's 14% (3rd) but beating out Bachmann by 2 points, Gingrich by 4, Cain by 5, Santorum by 6 and Huntsman by 7.
SHORT SUMMERY
Paul is pretty much polling around 10% nationally for the GOP nomination. After four months of official campaigning and most of that campaigning being done in just two states (IA and NH), I'd say that's a very good position to be in right now. There's still a long way to go.
POLLING AGAINST OBAMA
From 7/14-7/17, a poll conducted by ABC News and the Washington Post showed Paul losing to President Obama by 10 points in a 52% to 42% matchup. In this same poll, only Romney did better (losing to the President by 2 points in a 49% to 47% matchup). Perry lost by 13% (53% to 40%) and Bachmann lost by 15% (55% to 40%).
After the Ames straw poll, from 8/15-8/16, Rasmussen Reports conducted a poll that showed the President beating Paul by only 1% in a 39% to 38% matchup!
Also after the Ames straw poll, in a Gallup poll conducted from 8/17-8/18, Paul lost to the President by only 2 points in a 47% to 45% matchup. In that same poll, Romney essentially tied Paul's record by also losing to the President by just 2 points (48% to 46%) and Bachmann lost by 4% (48% to 44%). Only Perry did better than everyone by tying the President 47% to 47%.
GENERAL ELECTION SUMMARY
Anyone who denies Paul's capability to compete against Obama and possibly even defeat him is lying to themselves and whoever else they are trying to convince.
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