Recent content by jjockers

Na, the two are not directly related. The skillsets are similar, though. Absolutely. Send me a PM whenever and I'll be glad to help however possible. The job/career is fun, rewarding, challenging, etc -- definitely a good choice.

M.S. in Nuclear Astrophysics Working as an actuary (days away from ASA designation).

1) - it's the best data we have, and it actually works decently to explain the phenomenon in SC. It's not a bad approximation, just not ideal. How it works: precincts are assigned their county demographics. Median Income, % White, % Female and % Over 65 at the county level are decent...

I've made and distributed a comprehensive tool for SC that shows dynamic charts and analysis for most of the key demographics. It's posted and linked all over these threads. I've posted the conclusion a dozen times: 2/3 of the phenomenon can be explained by county-level demographics in SC...

Yup, absolutely correct. The flippers seem to have a very difficult time understanding this rudimentary concept. If they want to 'prove' or substantiate the claim of fraud, they first must demonstrate that precinct size is not correlated with any variables that would produce the phenomenon...

Newt falls and the other three rise slightly. I can't say why conclusively or if that's a recurring phenomenon, as we haven't researched any county-size correlations. It is interesting, and should give the flippers pause when assuming the precinct-size phenomenon is fraud. Your analysis...

Correct. That's the state where we have the most demographic information (at least among early states) No, there is no county-size Romney vote correlation. The graphs below show Romney vote % vs increasing precinct size and county size, respectively. Note that the x-scale corresponds to...

I appreciate da32130's research. Actually, his analysis is better than just about everyone else's work in the other threads. He's at least approaching the phenomenon from an (initially) unbiased, analytic problem-solving perspective (scientific method was emotion). I wish there was more of...

Here's Nevada's results by precinct for anyone who wants to take a look. Time permitting, I'll incorporate these into the tool (posted above). http://www.nvgopcaucus.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/02/NVGOP-Caucus-Results-All.pdf

Start by compiling all of the data (raw data by precinct, state) into one file. Then upload that file and post a link here for "more people" to review.

Sent you a PM *Edit* - The tool requires macros and will cause an error if macros are not enabled. Enabling macros resolves the issue.

Could those of you who have compiled the precinct data for various states please upload that data somewhere and provide a link here? We need more eyes on the data, and reducing data gathering redundancy would save a lot of time. Thanks! The tool below would allow for many eyes to easily view...

Not sure what you mean here. As someone who might qualify as a math diva, I wouldn't look at the R^2 (goodness of the linear fit) or the F/T-stat first. Unless I am missing something, I'd first look at the slope (followed by the R^2). Negative slope with high R^2 => losing votes as precinct...

It's possible, but 1 part of the demographic defense would be: If EVTM caused this "vote flipping", then why do we see the same pattern in caucus states? If you come across a good resource for precinct data beyond Iowa, let me know! Unfortunately I've not found a solid, organized source for...

Except we're not proving electronic voting manipulation yet. There is a phenomenon that we're trying to understand. Fraud is just 1 potential explanation. We should be careful not to limit the analysis on that which some hope to be the explanation. The 'flipping' seems to occur in caucus and...