Recent content by DRV45N05

In South Carolina, independents may as well be considered Republicans. Same with Democrats.

Guys, lots of Des Moines to go. Ames isn't coming in yet. Lots of time to go. The exit polls are not well specified. Some of the questions indicate different vote tallies. CNN says they have Ron Paul up by 1% overall, and there's a reason for that, so let's see what happens.

Guys, a lot of counting to go. Lots of Polk County. Story county is going to be very key, with Ames.

Santorum will probably do very well in the small counties/precincts. He touched a lot of the voters in those counties. I think Paul and Romney will do better in the bigger counties. Those are where organization and dollars make the difference.

Haha, some woman said on CNN that she's voting for Santorum "because of the economy." Seriously? ;)

I wonder if the order is significant?

Just asked a friend of mine about the daily breakdown. He said the sample was split evenly on each of Saturday and Sunday- 670 on Saturday, 670 on Sunday. MOE is +/-3.8% on each day. So Paul's lead on Sunday is within the MOE, but it's on the edge of it.

Hey guys, I'm chatting with a friend of mine on Facebook who works at PPP. I'm asking him about the numbers on each of the two days. He said that it was about a 50/50 split on each of Saturday and Sunday- so more than 600 voters each day. He's giving me the MOE for each day in a few minutes.

Just found this gem tonight.

They're not allowed to talk about it. They signed a form with the campaign. It was a very successful venture in 2008. They made a big difference in the closing days and, if not for an unfortunate error with the voter list at the last minute, they would have probably been responsible for...

There is no way that you can assert that the Democratic vote will be evenly split among six candidates based on interviewing just 6 LV Democrats. That is WAY too few. You need to interview more Democrats to get a more accurate picture about where they're going- which is what PPP does.

But you have to look at other things, too. As I said earlier, the NBC poll for Tuesday and Wednesday (which were the first two days of the DMR poll) had Santorum at 15% with a much lower MOE over those two days than the MOE of the DMR poll (which had Santorum at 9%) over those two days. The...

Another thing.... If we are to take the numbers from Tuesday and Wednesday, they have Santorum at 9%. Well, the NBC/Marist poll- which was over Tuesday and Wednesday- had Santorum at 15%. It seems to me that the last two days in the DMR poll were just correcting for underestimating...

Guys, again: This was from Tuesday to Friday. Today, PPP said that their results so far- taken after the end of the DMR poll- have Paul and Romney close for the lead with Santorum behind. Given the MOE, it's just as likely that Santorum was at 15-16% in reality Thursday and Friday as it is...

Not bothered by the last part. The poll was done from Monday-Thursday, if I understand it correctly, so we're talking about Wednesday and Thursday when this was the case- and this was the hotbed of the Santorum press buzz. The last two days have too small of a sample size and too big a margin of...