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At this point, many of you are asking “what next?” Sure, we are disappointed that we didn't win Maine, even though we did very well with 36%, and surely a majority of the actual delegates.
What we all need to realize: This fight is nowhere near over, indeed, it has just begun.
I have compiled this post as an extension of my “How Ron Paul Wins the Nomination” thread, in order to help our supporters keep their eye on the ball in the coming month as we march towards some very important opportunities for us up to and including Super Tuesday. I strongly recommend that you view that thread first to get an idea of what we are talking about when it comes to delegates and the nominating schedule.
Okay, now on to how the sausage is made.
Delegates. That's what we want. That's what we need to have a chance to win this nomination, and that's what the next month up to Super Tuesday gives us our best chance of doing. Here I will highlight a few states that we need to seriously work in and towards, where we have a chance of victory and/or a lot of delegates.
Wyoming – Feb 9-29, then County Conventions Mar 6-10 – Wyoming has started as of this posting with holding their precinct caucuses, which lead up to the County Conventions Mar 6-10. The full schedule for precinct caucuses follows:
Saturday, February 11
2:00pm Crook County Precinct Caucuses
Thursday, February 16
7:00pm Sublette County Precinct Caucuses
Friday, February 17
5:30pm Laramie County Lincoln Day Dinner
Saturday, February 18
Goshen County Precinct Caucuses
Laramie County Precinct Caucuses
7:30am Albany County Precinct Caucuses
9:00am Campbell County Precinct Caucuses
9:30am Sheridan County Precinct Caucuses
10:00am Lincoln County Precinct Caucuses
1:00pm Weston County Precinct Caucuses
Monday, February 20
1:00pm Carbon County Precinct Caucuses
6:00pm Converse County Precinct Caucuses: 23-4, 23-5
Tuesday, February 21
7:00pm Big Horn County Caucuses
7:00pm Converse County Precinct Caucuses: 13-13, 20-20
7:00pm Fremont County Precinct Caucus: Jeffrey City
7:00pm Fremont County Precinct Caucuses
7:00pm Uinta County Precint Caucuses, Evanston
7:00pm Washakie County Precinct Caucuses
Wednesday, February 22
7:00pm Converse County Precinct Caucuses: 6-6, 9-1, 9-2, 10-10, 11-11
7:00pm Fremont County Precinct Caucuses: Riverton
7:00pm Fremont County Precint Caucuses: Dubois
Thursday, February 23
6:00pm Teton County Precinct Caucuses
6:30pm Natrona County Precinct Caucuses
6:30pm Hot Springs County Precinct Caucuses
7:00pm Converse County Precinct Caucuses: 23-3, 8-8, 7-7
7:00pm Uinta County Precint Caucuses, Lyman
Saturday, February 25
10:00am Johnson County Precinct Caucuses
Monday, February 27
7:00pm Converse County Precinct Caucuses: 23-1, 3-1, 4-4, 1-1, 2-2
Tuesday, February 28
6:00pm Platte County Precinct Caucuses
6:30pm Park County Precinct Caucuses
6:30pm Converse County Precinct Caucuses: 23-2, 23-6
Wednesday, February 29
6:00pm Sweetwater County Precinct Caucuses
This is an important state for us, because the caucuses are very poorly attended. The county convention delegates at the Mar 6-10 County Conventions determine 12 of the delegates, because each county convention selects a national delegate and alternate. Each county convention is a pairing of counties, like so:
Natrona / Albany
Carbon / Sweetwater
Lincoln / Uinta
Sublette Platte / Teton
Park / Fremont
Washakie / Hot Springs
Big Horn / Sheridan Platte
Johnson / Campbell
Weston / Crook
Niobrara / Converse
Platte / Goshen
Laramie county is large enough so that it selects its own delegate.
Obviously, this presents us a serious opportunity for us to rack up some delegates by winning some of the smaller areas.
Washington – Mar 3 – This is another one of our prime opportunities to actually win a caucus state. There are 43 delegates and 20 are unpledged, which means that they will not be bound at the national convention to vote for a particular candidate. Like Maine, these caucuses are very poorly attended and present us a prime opportunity to rack up delegates and possibly win.
Also like Maine, Washington was one of the few places we were very competitive in 2008. That gives us much hope, and reason to believe we can significantly build on our numbers this year.
Here are the 2008 results from Washington's caucuses:
McCain 3228 25.9%
Huckabee 2959 23.52%
Ron Paul 2740 21.64%
Romney 1903 15.45%
Uncommitted 1662 13.49%
Total Votes 12320
The campaign has set up headquarters in Washington:
13600 NE 20th St, Bellevue, WA 98005
Alaska – Mar 6 (Super Tuesday) – Another state we did well in in 2008, and we have a chance to win it as well. Fairly low caucus attendance, and sequestered enough from the rest of the country to where a solid effort here could yield some very good results.
There are 27 delegates and 3 are unpledged, which probably means the state chairman and the two committeemen to the RNC.
Here are the 2008 results for the Alaska caucuses:
Romney 5988 35.87%
Huckabee 2996 21.86%
Ron Paul 2363 17.24%
McCain 2132 15.56%
Unpledged 224 1.63%
Total Votes 13,703
Idaho – Mar 6 (Super Tuesday) – Idaho is holding caucuses this year, after having a primary in 2008. Because it is the first time Idaho has had caucuses in recent memory, there is good reason to believe that the caucuses will be poorly attended. As a result, Idaho sets up perfectly for us. Idaho has 32 delegates, all of which are pledged, meaning that the caucus process will determine the delegates and that good organization and informed supporters will be rewarded.
In 2008's primary, the results were as follows (remember, Idaho's primary was May 27, long after the race became McCain and Paul only):
McCain 87460 69.65%
Ron Paul 29785 23.72%
Uncommitted 8325 6.63%
As you can see, even in the 2008 primary we had a fairly strong base of support there. Even assuming a good amount of that is an anti-McCain vote, we still would have some very strong numbers to build on for the caucus process, if we can reach out to those folks.
North Dakota – Mar 6 (Super Tuesday) – Yet another state where we did well in 2008, and the caucuses are very poorly attended. Granted, North Dakota is not a large state. However, if we can build on our base from 2008, we have a very good chance of winning here.
Results from 2008:
Romney 3490 35.82%
McCain 2224 22.83%
Ron Paul 2082 21.37%
Huckabee 1947 19.98%
Total Votes 9743
As of this posting, Phone From Home is calling North Dakota. The campaign has established a headquarters there, and is clearly focusing here as a very winnable caucus state for us.
North Dakota Headquarters:
500 N. 3 rd St, Bismarck, ND 58501
What Can You Do To Help?
Now let's get on it!
UPDATE: Please see this thread for a good point made about how getting Ron Paul to these important states would be huge. Something we need to get the campaign on!
What we all need to realize: This fight is nowhere near over, indeed, it has just begun.
I have compiled this post as an extension of my “How Ron Paul Wins the Nomination” thread, in order to help our supporters keep their eye on the ball in the coming month as we march towards some very important opportunities for us up to and including Super Tuesday. I strongly recommend that you view that thread first to get an idea of what we are talking about when it comes to delegates and the nominating schedule.
Okay, now on to how the sausage is made.
Delegates. That's what we want. That's what we need to have a chance to win this nomination, and that's what the next month up to Super Tuesday gives us our best chance of doing. Here I will highlight a few states that we need to seriously work in and towards, where we have a chance of victory and/or a lot of delegates.
Wyoming – Feb 9-29, then County Conventions Mar 6-10 – Wyoming has started as of this posting with holding their precinct caucuses, which lead up to the County Conventions Mar 6-10. The full schedule for precinct caucuses follows:
Saturday, February 11
2:00pm Crook County Precinct Caucuses
Thursday, February 16
7:00pm Sublette County Precinct Caucuses
Friday, February 17
5:30pm Laramie County Lincoln Day Dinner
Saturday, February 18
Goshen County Precinct Caucuses
Laramie County Precinct Caucuses
7:30am Albany County Precinct Caucuses
9:00am Campbell County Precinct Caucuses
9:30am Sheridan County Precinct Caucuses
10:00am Lincoln County Precinct Caucuses
1:00pm Weston County Precinct Caucuses
Monday, February 20
1:00pm Carbon County Precinct Caucuses
6:00pm Converse County Precinct Caucuses: 23-4, 23-5
Tuesday, February 21
7:00pm Big Horn County Caucuses
7:00pm Converse County Precinct Caucuses: 13-13, 20-20
7:00pm Fremont County Precinct Caucus: Jeffrey City
7:00pm Fremont County Precinct Caucuses
7:00pm Uinta County Precint Caucuses, Evanston
7:00pm Washakie County Precinct Caucuses
Wednesday, February 22
7:00pm Converse County Precinct Caucuses: 6-6, 9-1, 9-2, 10-10, 11-11
7:00pm Fremont County Precinct Caucuses: Riverton
7:00pm Fremont County Precint Caucuses: Dubois
Thursday, February 23
6:00pm Teton County Precinct Caucuses
6:30pm Natrona County Precinct Caucuses
6:30pm Hot Springs County Precinct Caucuses
7:00pm Converse County Precinct Caucuses: 23-3, 8-8, 7-7
7:00pm Uinta County Precint Caucuses, Lyman
Saturday, February 25
10:00am Johnson County Precinct Caucuses
Monday, February 27
7:00pm Converse County Precinct Caucuses: 23-1, 3-1, 4-4, 1-1, 2-2
Tuesday, February 28
6:00pm Platte County Precinct Caucuses
6:30pm Park County Precinct Caucuses
6:30pm Converse County Precinct Caucuses: 23-2, 23-6
Wednesday, February 29
6:00pm Sweetwater County Precinct Caucuses
This is an important state for us, because the caucuses are very poorly attended. The county convention delegates at the Mar 6-10 County Conventions determine 12 of the delegates, because each county convention selects a national delegate and alternate. Each county convention is a pairing of counties, like so:
Natrona / Albany
Carbon / Sweetwater
Lincoln / Uinta
Sublette Platte / Teton
Park / Fremont
Washakie / Hot Springs
Big Horn / Sheridan Platte
Johnson / Campbell
Weston / Crook
Niobrara / Converse
Platte / Goshen
Laramie county is large enough so that it selects its own delegate.
Obviously, this presents us a serious opportunity for us to rack up some delegates by winning some of the smaller areas.
Washington – Mar 3 – This is another one of our prime opportunities to actually win a caucus state. There are 43 delegates and 20 are unpledged, which means that they will not be bound at the national convention to vote for a particular candidate. Like Maine, these caucuses are very poorly attended and present us a prime opportunity to rack up delegates and possibly win.
Also like Maine, Washington was one of the few places we were very competitive in 2008. That gives us much hope, and reason to believe we can significantly build on our numbers this year.
Here are the 2008 results from Washington's caucuses:
McCain 3228 25.9%
Huckabee 2959 23.52%
Ron Paul 2740 21.64%
Romney 1903 15.45%
Uncommitted 1662 13.49%
Total Votes 12320
The campaign has set up headquarters in Washington:
13600 NE 20th St, Bellevue, WA 98005
Alaska – Mar 6 (Super Tuesday) – Another state we did well in in 2008, and we have a chance to win it as well. Fairly low caucus attendance, and sequestered enough from the rest of the country to where a solid effort here could yield some very good results.
There are 27 delegates and 3 are unpledged, which probably means the state chairman and the two committeemen to the RNC.
Here are the 2008 results for the Alaska caucuses:
Romney 5988 35.87%
Huckabee 2996 21.86%
Ron Paul 2363 17.24%
McCain 2132 15.56%
Unpledged 224 1.63%
Total Votes 13,703
Idaho – Mar 6 (Super Tuesday) – Idaho is holding caucuses this year, after having a primary in 2008. Because it is the first time Idaho has had caucuses in recent memory, there is good reason to believe that the caucuses will be poorly attended. As a result, Idaho sets up perfectly for us. Idaho has 32 delegates, all of which are pledged, meaning that the caucus process will determine the delegates and that good organization and informed supporters will be rewarded.
In 2008's primary, the results were as follows (remember, Idaho's primary was May 27, long after the race became McCain and Paul only):
McCain 87460 69.65%
Ron Paul 29785 23.72%
Uncommitted 8325 6.63%
As you can see, even in the 2008 primary we had a fairly strong base of support there. Even assuming a good amount of that is an anti-McCain vote, we still would have some very strong numbers to build on for the caucus process, if we can reach out to those folks.
North Dakota – Mar 6 (Super Tuesday) – Yet another state where we did well in 2008, and the caucuses are very poorly attended. Granted, North Dakota is not a large state. However, if we can build on our base from 2008, we have a very good chance of winning here.
Results from 2008:
Romney 3490 35.82%
McCain 2224 22.83%
Ron Paul 2082 21.37%
Huckabee 1947 19.98%
Total Votes 9743
As of this posting, Phone From Home is calling North Dakota. The campaign has established a headquarters there, and is clearly focusing here as a very winnable caucus state for us.
North Dakota Headquarters:
500 N. 3 rd St, Bismarck, ND 58501
What Can You Do To Help?
- Most importantly, you can PHONE FROM HOME. If you haven't signed up, now is as good a time as ever. The campaign currently has us calling North Dakota residents.
- The campaign needs you to still DONATE as generously as you can. The money from the last quarter has surely dwindled down to insignificance, and we are now likely running on what we've raised since Iowa. That's meaningful. We can't give up. THE MONEYBOMB ON FEB 14 IS REALLY IMPORTANT.
- Find a meetup group in a state you want to help, and help them with supplies and whatever they need. Many of these groups are full of new members and active members from 2008, and can still use a lot of help.
- Get on Facebook and buy ads targeting the areas you want to help out. A few tips are to focus on a younger crowd (18-40), and focus on independents and Republicans affiliated with the tea party. Remember, you can also focus on people who have "liked" Ron Paul on Facebook. This is a significant opportunity for us to reach a lot of people relatively cheaply.
Now let's get on it!
UPDATE: Please see this thread for a good point made about how getting Ron Paul to these important states would be huge. Something we need to get the campaign on!
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