Third-party support surging

[enhanced_deficit]

Not good news for neocons/dronegansta/war criminals enabler/ 2-party scams lobbies:

July 31, 2016, 03:22 pm
Third-party support surging
By Ben Kamisar

Voters now confronted with the choice between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump are making something abundantly clear: they want another option.
Surveys over the last six weeks have found a steady but noticeable jump in support for third-party candidates. The biggest beneficiary has been Libertarian Gary Johnson, who has shot up from 4.5 percent to 7.2 percent in RealClearPolitics polling averages. Green Party candidate Jill Stein has also seen an uptick since June — from 2.5 percent to 3.5 percent.

The surge in support for a third-party candidate is adding a new element of unpredictability into the presidential race. Should voters opt for a third-party candidate in large numbers, it could potentially tip the scales in crucial battleground states.Pollsters and political scientists say the deep malcontent with Clinton and Trump should give both candidates pause.
“The fact that we have two major party candidates who are enormously disliked by the electorate, enormously and equally disliked, creates the opportunity for the minor party candidates to do better than they would in other presidential elections,” said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.
“The minor party candidates can have great influence if the final race is very close.”
Pollsters contacted by The Hill predicted that many of the voters now leaning toward a third-party candidate would eventually side with Trump or Clinton by Election Day.
But they caution that the volatility of the race and the low favorability ratings for both candidates mean anything is possible.
So far, it’s unclear whether Trump or Clinton will benefit most from a strong third-party vote.
There are voters in each party who feel spurned by their party's ticket — Republicans who refuse to side with Trump, and Bernie Sanders supporters who feel their candidate did not get a fair shake in the Democratic primary.
Conventional wisdom has held that votes for the Libertarian ticket would hurt Republicans, while Green Party votes would do damage to the Democrats.
That dynamic is borne out by recent polling. A CNN survey released last week found that 17 percent of Republican voters who didn’t back Trump in the primary now support Johnson, while only 4 percent of Democrats disgruntled with Clinton supported him. Stein, meanwhile, took 6 percent support among voters who backed Bernie Sanders in the Democratic primaries.
Monmouth’s poll from the start of the GOP convention also found Johnson pulling more from conservative voters than from liberals, while the reverse held true for Stein.


http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/289859-third-party-support-surging


Could this be the historic year when a woman candidate for Presidency becomes the real possibility?

 

[r3volution 3.0]

This is what it's all about for libertarians at this point.

The Presidency was lost on February 3rd when Rand dropped.

From that moment, it was 100% certain that a criminal or a retard (retarded criminal?) was going to be the next President.

Now, however, the question is, how much can we get?

If we get 5%, automatic ballot access.

...that's very good.

But, if we win a state....

...everything changes.

 

[presence]

Third-Party Support SURGING

http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/289859-third-party-support-surging

Voters now confronted with the choice between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump are making something abundantly clear: they want another option.
Surveys over the last six weeks have found a steady but noticeable jump in support for third-party candidates. The biggest beneficiary has been Libertarian Gary Johnson, who has shot up from 4.5 percent to 7.2 percent in RealClearPolitics polling averages. Green Party candidate Jill Stein has also seen an uptick since June — from 2.5 percent to 3.5 percent.
The surge in support for a third-party candidate is adding a new element of unpredictability into the presidential race. Should voters opt for a third-party candidate in large numbers, it could potentially tip the scales in crucial battleground states.Pollsters and political scientists say the deep malcontent with Clinton and Trump should give both candidates pause.
“The fact that we have two major party candidates who are enormously disliked by the electorate, enormously and equally disliked, creates the opportunity for the minor party candidates to do better than they would in other presidential elections,” said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.

“The minor party candidates can have great influence if the final race is very close.”
Pollsters contacted by The Hill predicted that many of the voters now leaning toward a third-party candidate would eventually side with Trump or Clinton by Election Day.
But they caution that the volatility of the race and the low favorability ratings for both candidates mean anything is possible.
So far, it’s unclear whether Trump or Clinton will benefit most from a strong third-party vote.

There are voters in each party who feel spurned by their party's ticket — Republicans who refuse to side with Trump, and Bernie Sanders supporters who feel their candidate did not get a fair shake in the Democratic primary.

Conventional wisdom has held that votes for the Libertarian ticket would hurt Republicans, while Green Party votes would do damage to the Democrats.

That dynamic is borne out by recent polling. A CNN survey released last week found that 17 percent of Republican voters who didn’t back Trump in the primary now support Johnson, while only 4 percent of Democrats disgruntled with Clinton supported him. Stein, meanwhile, took 6 percent support among voters who backed Bernie Sanders in the Democratic primaries.
Monmouth’s poll from the start of the GOP convention also found Johnson pulling more from conservative voters than from liberals, while the reverse held true for Stein.
But the numbers are far from cut-and-dry. Quinnipiac’s recent batch of swing state polls found that Trump’s standing in the race against Clinton improved slightly when all four candidates were included.
Patrick Murray, the Monmouth University pollster who was the first to put Johnson on a national poll, said that he doesn’t think voters are viewing third-party support as an ideological choice.
Johnson has received significantly more media coverage than Stein, last week taking to cable news to tout the potential endorsement of 2012 GOP nominee Mitt Romney. Murray and other pollsters believe that he may be seen as the de-facto third-party candidate for those looking to lodge a protest vote.
“For those who really feel they cannot vote for either of the two major party nominees,
Johnson is nominally the most visible alternative,” Murray said.

“So people are just traveling there without thinking of ideology.”
Even with the uptick in the polls, most experts believe Johnson won't make the debate stage. He’d have to significantly up his average to 15 percent to qualify for the first general election debate in September.
But even if he falls short, third-party candidates have roiled election results winning far less of the vote share.
Ralph Nader’s “2.5 percent in Florida was almost certainly the deciding factor” in the 2000 general election, Murray noted.
“This is why the national polling isn’t all that important anyways, it’s state by state, how close are these states, what are these candidates doing, and are they polling disproportionately in the state?”

Johnson and Stein will likely perform better in some heavily partisan states where voters don’t feel that their vote will actually matter, but Johnson specifically is showing traction in some closer ones.
Utah is fertile ground for Johnson right now, as an internal poll from Republican Rep. Mia Love’s campaign found him just 3 points behind Trump and 1 point behind Clinton, according to the Salt Lake Tribune.

And Johnson has scored in the high single digits in polls of Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania while netting 10 percent in New Hampshire, according to recent Quinnipiac figures. And out of the swing states in the 2012 election where the final margin was within 7 percent, Johnson is pulling 4 percent in the Monmouth surveys.
That won’t be enough support to win the election, but it could be enough to tilt the scales.
As the race enters the home stretch, pollsters will be watching closely to see whether the third-party vote holds.
“The question is, can they bring themselves to vote for a campaign only for the purposes of protesting the ticket?” Brandon Rottinghaus, a University of Houston political scientist.
“You are going to look at their platforms and you’ll say, ‘This doesn’t match me at all.



Can I bring myself to do this simply out of spite?’ ”

 

[LibertyEagle]

So vote for the retard, Johnson. Hell yeah! A real win for liberty.


================
Gary Johnson supports the Trans Pacific Partnership. That makes him a traitor.

 

[Ender]

So vote for the retard, Johnson. Hell yeah! A real win for liberty.


================
Gary Johnson supports the Trans Pacific Partnership. That makes him a traitor.

Where is your educated argument? The one you always call for regarding Trump?

 

[Natural Citizen]

Well. I certainly understand the protest vote. We saw record numbers during the 2014 Mid-Term elections that support this trend. If I'm going to vote in protest, though, I'd tend to do so in Liberty and in favor of the more principled candidate. And that would be the Constitution Party Candidate, Darrell Castle. Not Johnson.

 

[surf]

Well. I certainly understand the protest vote. We saw record numbers during the 2014 Mid-Term elections that support this trend. If I'm going to vote in protest, though, I'd tend to do so in Liberty and in favor of the more principled candidate. And that would be the Constitution Party Candidate, Darrell Castle. Not Johnson.

well thanks for pissing on my cheerios.

i'm just not sure why you'd waste your vote by voting for Castle though. that's a vote for Clinton! and don't forget that this is the most important election of your lifetime.

i'm joking. i'm trying to get folks to vote 3rd by telling them that if they don't - they are endorsing war. if they do, they favor peace. very much hoping we can get Johnson on a stage with those republicratic bumblefucks.

 

[TheTexan]

Johnson may be too extreme libertarian for most people though

 

[euphemia]

Darrell Castle.

 

[cindy25]

the key number is 15% by Sept so Johnson (or Stein) get debate status. even though I lean Trump I would love to see Johnson in the debates, and even win a state

 

[undergroundrr]

Darrell Castle is awesome. He's a great option for principled voters.

Strategically, I hope the protest vote goes to the LP. A vote for Castle is probably more likely to take from trump. A vote for Johnson has been repeatedly shown to be more likely to take from Clinton, while it would weaken the republicrat mandate just that bit and buttress third party support.

 

[notsure]

...

 

[Origanalist]

Johnson may be too extreme libertarian for most people though

He has anarchy written all over him.

 

[Suzanimal]

Johnson may be too extreme libertarian for most people though

He has anarchy written all over him.

Good thing he has Weld to balance the ticket.

 

[Origanalist]

Good thing he has Weld to balance the ticket.

You must spread some Reputation around before giving it to Suzanimal again.

///

 

[CaptUSA]

How ironic is it that the first time the LP actually has a shot in the debates, real libertarians are fleeing the ticket as quickly as possible?

I suppose this was bound to happen. In order to make the LP palatable to the GOP and Dem faithful, they had to pick a Gary Johnson-type that pisses us off. <great>

So the LP becomes an alternative party that really isn't even an alternative anymore. Oh well, maybe if they can raise their cred a little, a real liberty candidate will be able to take the reins in a future election. I suppose it could help in lower level offices as well.

 

[CaptUSA]

So vote for the retard, Johnson. Hell yeah! A real win for liberty.

And here we go again, with the Trump supporter criticizing Johnson...

(FYI, we know why you're doing this and it has nothing to do with libertarian principles.)

 

[notsure]

He has anarchy written all over him.

Forcing bakers to bake gay/nazi wedding cakes, TPP, Kony 2012; he's a real "rebel without a cause".

 

[Occam's Banana]

A vote for Johnson has been repeatedly shown to be more likely to take from Clinton [...]

That claim is contradicted by the OP article:

Conventional wisdom has held that votes for the Libertarian ticket would hurt Republicans, while Green Party votes would do damage to the Democrats. That dynamic is borne out by recent polling. A CNN survey released last week found that 17 percent of Republican voters who didn’t back Trump in the primary now support Johnson, while only 4 percent of Democrats disgruntled with Clinton supported him.

Are there other credible polls indicating the reverse dynamic?

 

[euphemia]

Johnson may be too extreme libertarian for most people though

He's not a libertarian.