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Shorted USO at $98 (Oil ~ $122) on 5/6/2008

OptionsTrader

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Joined
Sep 17, 2007
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5,987
Not a recommendation, and I reserve the right to close the position at any time, like tomorrow.

Just an FYI.

Don't do it just because I did....

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More speculators driving up the price of oil.

We ought to just ban stock/commodity trading altogether. Want a loan? Go to the National Bank - because people like OT are nothing but selfish tyrants when it comes to money.
 
More speculators driving up the price of oil.

You do know that "shorting" means he sold oil -- which helps keep the price down, right?

We ought to just ban stock/commodity trading altogether. Want a loan? Go to the National Bank - because people like OT are nothing but selfish tyrants when it comes to money.

"Selfish tyrants"? "ban stock/commodity trading"? :eek: I hope you're joking. The problems with the economy have nothing to do with traders or speculation. The government is the cause here. More regulation, banning, etc, would only compound the problem.
 
"Selfish tyrants"? "ban stock/commodity trading"? :eek: I hope you're joking. The problems with the economy have nothing to do with traders or speculation. The government is the cause here. More regulation, banning, etc, would only compound the problem.


Lol... Of course I'm joking Ace :)

National Bank.... FFS
 
OT -- Balls of steel.

I picked up IOC yesterday at $21.34. Had its credit facility coming due --- one creditor equitized their share at $22.35 while the stock has a 39% short interest. Closed at $25.9 today :) :)
 
Nice trade Cowlsey.

Still real risky, and I have a trailing stop on it. ML is the other $70M of the $130M credit facility, and they could flinch though I doubt it. Given that the other creditor equitized, I assume Merrill will re-up, or we'll see a new co-investor enter the mix which will squeeze the shorts even more.

The wells have been promising thus far and the CEO commented they practically had a blow-out (from the immense nat. gas pressure) on Elk4. If in the end the nat. gas doesn't prove out, the stock will absolutely crater.

That being said, T. Boone has a 10% stake in the company (probably diluted a bit today), and he knows a hell of a lot more about nat. resources than I do.

Any thoughts on SRS? I got in at $87 and I am just sick and tired of the huge upside moves on U.S. Real Estate. I think it's B.S. That being said, I'm holding my nose shut and hanging onto SRS.

Something has to give.
 
In my opinion, there is no reason to think there is anything but more downside in the domestic real estate market. SRS is in the neighborhood of last year's support/ inflection point around the upper 70s low 80s where you should see people, me included, coming in and shorting real estate some more. I think thehead and shoulders downward momo is about done. I think in the money January 2009 XHB puts look good around here.

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In my opinion, there is no reason to think there is anything but more downside in the domestic real estate market. SRS is in the neighborhood of last year's support/ inflection point around the upper 70s low 80s where you should see people, me included, coming in and shorting real estate some more. I think thehead and shoulders downward momo is about done. I think in the money January 2009 XHB puts look good around here.

2ebvpsm.gif

I got a move a little north of 5% on SRS today.

Everyday I sit in my office and scream at my monitor (in my head) "This is fucking BS that Real Estate is rallying, @#$*()($#@$#"

So I was happy to finally see some market rationality today.
 
Not a recommendation, and I reserve the right to close the position at any time, like tomorrow.

Just an FYI.

Don't do it just because I did....

4grriq.gif

I hope you have an inside line as to what the Saudis plan to do with oil production.
 
Well options trader i assume you stopped out on the position today. I agree that oil is due for a correction. But look at the solid up volume on your chart.
Tough to figure out where or when it drops. But it will at some point but probably not much.

My question is this:
i bought Long USO but only as a hedge against my own gas expenses into the future. I can't be buying commodities contracts on oil which can swing up or down too fast. So I decided to put 5K into USO (half in at oil at 100$ barrel and half at $110.00.) I am up $600.00 which protects me against increases so that if oil continues up i have this gain to pay for gas in the future. If it goes down then I pay less at the pump and my losses on the trade are equaled by my "savings" at the pump.

Any thoughts on this or Cowsley? The idea is put a bit of cash long on oil and if oil goes up I make on the long trade on USO. If it goes down I save at the pump. Just hedging if you will.

I intend to buy on dips as I am quite sure Oil will continue it's march up wards as the dollar declines. Any thoughts?
 
I have been absolutely wrong on oil since $100/barrel. I agree with you that buying an oil futures contract is not worth the risk unless you have lots of money to lose, or you can afford to lose all your capital and pay-up on any deficit from a huge swing (futures contracts have to settle up daily).

USO is the way to go. If I were you, I'd set a trailing stop of about 10%. This way you can sit back and let it fluctuate, but if it dives you'll protect the majority of your gain.

There really does not appear to make any stop oil from going up. That being said, I'm just naturally scared of the oil market when it is this high. In February or March, I bought shares in UGA (United State Gasoline Fund) that tracks RBOB, and its made me an easy 19%. RBOB typically lags oil, but I was purchasing the fund based on the fact it was brand new, and the volume has slowly grown as people have watched the price of gas spiral.

One camp will tell you not to fight the trend and go long, the other will say that things can't go straight-up and that buying when something gets parabolic is a bad idea.

With oil, put a trailing stop on your position and keep your blood pressure down. :)
 
I have been absolutely wrong on oil since $100/barrel. I agree with you that buying an oil futures contract is not worth the risk unless you have lots of money to lose, or you can afford to lose all your capital and pay-up on any deficit from a huge swing (futures contracts have to settle up daily).

USO is the way to go. If I were you, I'd set a trailing stop of about 10%. This way you can sit back and let it fluctuate, but if it dives you'll protect the majority of your gain.

There really does not appear to make any stop oil from going up. That being said, I'm just naturally scared of the oil market when it is this high. In February or March, I bought shares in UGA (United State Gasoline Fund) that tracks RBOB, and its made me an easy 19%. RBOB typically lags oil, but I was purchasing the fund based on the fact it was brand new, and the volume has slowly grown as people have watched the price of gas spiral.

One camp will tell you not to fight the trend and go long, the other will say that things can't go straight-up and that buying when something gets parabolic is a bad idea.

With oil, put a trailing stop on your position and keep your blood pressure down. :)

one day i'm going to actually study this stuff, understand it and blow all of you bastards out of the water (argh maties!!!).
 
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