Ron Paul 8% Nationwide

[Karsten]

In a hypothetical 4 way race with Hillary, Rudy, and Ralph Nader...

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/pub...ection_2008_clinton_42_giuliani_39_ron_paul_8

But Ron Paul has said he won't run as a 3rd party candidate. So, why is this important?? Because that 8% represents the GENERAL population! Let's say there is a 20% turnout of registered Republicans a particular primary. Let's also say that 20% of that 8% of the general population who would vote for Ron Paul re-register as Republicans and vote for him in the primary. Republicans are roughly 1/3 of the voting public, so 8% times 3 is 24%!

 

[austin356]

In a hypothetical 4 way race with Hillary, Rudy, and Ralph Nader...

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/pub...ection_2008_clinton_42_giuliani_39_ron_paul_8

But Ron Paul has said he won't run as a 3rd party candidate. So, why is this important?? Because that 8% represents the GENERAL population! Let's say there is a 20% turnout of registered Republicans a particular primary. Let's also say that 20% of that 8% of the general population who would vote for Ron Paul re-register as Republicans and vote for him in the primary. Republicans are roughly 1/3 of the voting public, so 8% times 3 is 24%!

Good point but your math is off. Off on the cautious side.

On average only 20% of registered voters turn out for the primaries. 1/2 of those go vote in the Democratic primary. That means only 10% of registered voters turn out to the Republican primary.

So theoretically if all primaries were open. All Ron Paul supporters showed up at the Republican primary he would garner 80% of the vote for the Republican primary. But there are too many externalities that will push that number way way way down.

 

[drednot]

I find this report quietly stunning.

Despite BOTH parties having their frontrunner in the race, Ron actually gains in his percentage.

Furthermore, this poll includes Nader. The argument is usually made that when republicans mainstreamers drop out, their support won't go to Paul. But if Nader, were not included, I think a lot of Naderites would switch to Paul as the anti-war, anti-establishment candidate.

So I think we're looking at Paul support around 10% despite a huge disadvantage in name recognition and party loyalty. That's a great place to start from.

Furthermore, Rasmussen claims Paul takes more Hillary votes than Giuliani votes, which should really convince Republicans he has a great chance of winning if nominated.

(And of course, Paul supporties are typically energized enough to vote, compared with rank-and-file party loyalists.)

 

[AgentPaul001]

Wow! 8% of the General Population in that matchup is pretty considerable. If Nader chose not to run (which would likely be the case), its concievable that Paul could draw enough Hillary Haters and Anti-War crowd to win the election. Although with so many big states like NY and California not swinging his way, it'd be very tough.

 

[nexus7]

This is California, the most advanced state in the nation. Paul is going to win in a landslide out here. Count on it.

 

[Adamsa]

Would Ralph Nader support Ron?

 

[user]

Would Ralph Nader support Ron?

I would guess no. Too many areas where Nader believes government interference is necessary.

 

[user]

This is California, the most advanced state in the nation.

I would have to agree with this.

 

[DRV45N05]

As to whether or not Nader would support Ron, I think he would. He praised Ron and Mike Gravel in an article earlier this year, and I think on enough civil liberties/foreign policy/anti-corporate issues, Ron and Ralph are in lockstep to facilitate Ralph endorsing him.

Right now, I would say that about 2, maybe 3, of Nader's 4 percentage points would go to Ron. That would put Ron at about 10-11%, which is right where Bloomberg is. I think probably all of the 8% from Paul went to Bloomberg in the other poll, and probably 3 of Nader's 4 went to him, as well, so I think 11% is what a third-party candidate starts with against Clinton and Giuliani in 3-way race, due probably to just disenfranchisement.

 

[Captain Shays]

Would Ralph Nader support Ron?

Ralph Nader already said that he would support RP

 

[airborne373]

Increase RP's Polling Number Now!

This is the most effective way to increase Ron Paul's numbers:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sr6W9y2lk-A

 

[SewrRatt]

So when do we get to see the results of the poll with Hillary as Democrat, Ron Paul as Republican, and Giuliani as Libertarian?

 

[hard@work]

Ralph Nader already said that he would support RP

source?

 

[Cali4RonPaul]

This is California, the most advanced state in the nation. Paul is going to win in a landslide out here. Count on it.

Advanced in so many fields, but far behind in many others. haha

But yes we do have some innovative businesses and people out here..

 

[nexus7]

Advanced in so many fields, but far behind in many others. haha

But yes we do have some innovative businesses and people out here..

Without illegal immigration over all those years, we'd be a strong state again. Some of the traditional california dreams have been scarred, it's true. But we can rebuild those dreams again.

 

[Esor]

Would Ralph Nader support Ron?

I would think so. They are almost one in the same when it comes to foreign policy. Social issues, however, they are nearly the opposite. However, I think Nader, along with most third/minor party candidates will support RP because he has sympathy towards them. I've always thought that all third parties should gather around one front-runner, not because they agree on the same issues, but because it will open doors for them in future elections. Although I haven't found any evidence that states Ron Paul will change the screwed up election process this Country faces, I hope someone can prove me wrong.

 

[user]

Although I haven't found any evidence that states Ron Paul will change the screwed up election process this Country faces, I hope someone can prove me wrong.

I'm sure he would like to, because he frequently gives that as his reason for not wanting to run as a third-party candidate again. He would need Congressional support though.