Reality Check: WILL Ron Paul do better in New Hampshire???

[Karsten]

First of all, I notice there has been a progressive anti-negativity backlash on these forums tonight. I do not mean to be that. However, it's worth saying that the MSM polls were closer to our 10% finish than most of us predicted. Now, most of us are predicting that Ron Paul will do A LOT better in NH than he did in IA. What is your evidence of this? The RCP averages for NH puts us at 7% currently and in 5th place, ahead of Thompson. This isn't exactly better than Iowa. So, the people who think we will do like twice as well in New Hampshire had better explain exactly what is backing this idea? If Iowa has taught us anything, it is that there has to be a lot more evidence that the result will be 2 or 3 times greater than the traditional polling, other than appealing to things like "the independents will turn out for Ron Paul," or "Ron Paul supporters will turn out more than the other candidates." Both things could have happened in Iowa and didn't.

Again, not trying to be negative, I would really like a better outcome, and I would just like to be educated on how exactly this is going to happen.

 

[bc2208]

By busting our asses, not doubting ourselves.

*assbusting ensues*

 

[rainman39393]

Iowa is a state consisting of two 75 year old farmers and a goat that vote based on religion. New Hampshire has intelligent people in it who are mostly anti-war. hence they will vote for paul. Also 70% of the people who voted in Iowa are satisfied with bush, which is a complete polar opposite to almost every other state in the country.

 

[drexhex]

We'll find out on Tuesday.

 

[AMack]

In Iowa, our poll numbers surged about 4% in the week leading up to Iowa. We're going to have a similar surge in the coming days before NH, but there's more room for growth because New Hampshirites are more open to a candidate like Ron Paul. We've got a lot of appeal to independent voters, and that is going to play a large factor.

 

[cindy25]

and NH is a primary

 

[Karsten]

By busting our asses, not doubting ourselves.

*assbusting ensues*

I don't know, I've been going back and forth between negativity and optimism ever since the results were announced. But the fact is, we HAVE busted our asses for Ron Paul!! I have been in this campaign since May, and have spent hundreds of hours for Ron Paul. Most of us have, handing out slim jims and sign waving and stuff. But, my theory, after tonight (where I think the myth that all Ron Paul supporters are loud and super motivated was proven false -- I saw reports that some RP supporters even stayed home and some didn't speak up at the caucuses) is that there are more "casual" RP supporters out there that aren't as motivated as we are.

 

[Give me liberty]

I think a second place for ron paul in New Hampshire would be alot better

 

[Karsten]

and NH is a primary

And that helps us how? Iowa has turned me into a stubborn skeptic. Since Spring, I have seen many arguments and math that "proved" that Ron Paul would win. I bought into them. Now, when someone makes a statement like that, I need more evidence to back it up rather than just a statement.

 

[G-Wohl]

And that helps us how? Iowa has turned me into a stubborn skeptic. Since Spring, I have seen many arguments and math that "proved" that Ron Paul would win. Now, when someone makes a statement like that, I need more evidence to back it up rather than just a statement.

Well, at least the poll in New Hampshire will mean something. That's actually a vote - the numbers and percentages actually mean something. In Iowa, the delegates election process is really the important part. While image is important, the numbers from the Iowa caucus, at the moment, mean very little.

 

[jabrownie]

It will be what it will be. Today, that doesn't matter. Today the only thing that does matter is pressing on harder and stronger then before until these battles are won and we either have Dr. Paul as the President, or he himself decides to drop out. Until that day comes, whatever it may bring, get up and fight like your life, your family, and your future all depend on it.

 

[derdy]

NH will be MUCH better! It's an uphill battle though guys! Digg your heels in!

And the negativity thing tonight just seemed like a TOTAL psyop! The place was inundated with negativity.

I think some peeps are playing tricks with our emotions and minds (hello feds! )

 

[driller80545]

We had better get him on the tv. I hate it, but that is where the general public gets their info. They will like his message if they get it, but most of them will vote depending on what they see on tv. RP, make some news!

Not meant to be negative.

 

[shagywashere]

Only two Presidents have won Iowa. Two. What is the big deal here?!

 

[Talcott]

Keep your chin up....sometimes bustin your butt and NOT getting what you want is a good thing.

Dr. Paul has tirelessly worked on his message for Decades.

That's the stamina I'm in for.

 

[I Am Weasel]

THIS is what we need going on more of in NH!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ANZ7pzrTZiY

notice.... "yeah, that person was for Romney till we talked with them"....

we need a hell of a lot more people like this!!!!!!!

 

[justinc.1089]

Oh great we're polling the same in New Hampshire that we were in Iowa?

I know there are more independants in New Hampshire but that just means instead of a miserable 5th we might get a miserable 4th or maybe a not so miserable 3rd.

I'm really very deeply concerned after tonight. Something has gone seriously wrong I think since we can do so much, but get such a bad position.

 

[Karsten]

Oh great we're polling the same in New Hampshire that we were in Iowa?

I know there are more independants in New Hampshire but that just means instead of a miserable 5th we might get a miserable 4th or maybe a not so miserable 3rd.

I'm really very deeply concerned after tonight. Something has gone seriously wrong I think since we can do so much, but get such a bad position.

We're polling WORSE in NH than we were in Iowa before the Caucus, which is why I asked the question: why does everybody ASSUME that we'll do SOOO much better in NH???

 

[Ron Paul Fan]

We're polling WORSE in NH than we were in Iowa before the Caucus, which is why I asked the question: why does everybody ASSUME that we'll do SOOO much better in NH???

Because the message plays better in NH. The problem is that more people vote and Paul will need a lot more votes to get more than 10% there. People thought there'd be a low turnout this year in Iowa, but there were 30,000 more votes than in 2000. I think Paul will get 3rd-4th in NH. Maybe he'll surprise, but that's my prediction.

 

[idiom]

We assume that we will do better because the message is so awesome. It will magically disseminate itself.