Potential 80% false-positive rate among asymptomatic close contacts of COVID-19 patients

[JoshLowry]

When the infection rate of the close contacts and the sensitivity and specificity of reported results were taken as the point estimates, the positive predictive value of the active screening was only 19.67%, in contrast, the false-positive rate of positive results was 80.33%

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32133832

 

[TheTexan]

More evidence that the whole thing is a hoax

 

[Brian4Liberty]

Conclusions: In the close contacts of COVID-19 patients, nearly half or even more of the 'asymptomatic infected individuals' reported in the active nucleic acid test screening might be false positives.

Interesting. This paper came from China. Just today during Trump’s daily coronavirus press conference, they were talking about the accuracy of tests. Didn’t hear it all, but they may have been saying that the newer tests developed in the US may be more accurate.

 

[Brian4Liberty]

When the infection rate of the close contacts and the sensitivity and specificity of reported results were taken as the point estimates, the positive predictive value of the active screening was only 19.67%, in contrast, the false-positive rate of positive results was 80.33%

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32133832

This would be a mixed bag of news. On the plus side, it might mean that the virus really doesn’t spread as easily or as much as previously claimed.

On the negative side, many of these cases where people “never had any symptoms” may be bogus. This will reduce the number of people who actually had the virus, and statistically, that will raise the death rate.

 

[TheTexan]

tests developed in the US may be more accurate.

Tests developed in the US will always be more accurate.

 

[Brian4Liberty]

Tests developed in the US will always be more accurate.

USA! USA!

But more seriously, this will effect statistics. It would be good to know how many different tests have been used, and how accurate they all are. Did South Korea use different tests than China? How about Italy and Iran? Europe?

 

[Nirvikalpa]

“The multivariate-probabilistic sensitivity analysis results supported the base-case findings, with a 75% probability for the false-positive rate of positive results over 47%.”

Want to find the full-text and find out what the “information available to us at present” consisted of.

 

[JoshLowry]

“The multivariate-probabilistic sensitivity analysis results supported the base-case findings, with a 75% probability for the false-positive rate of positive results over 47%.”

Want to find the full-text and find out what the “information available to us at present” consisted of.

Do you have access here?

https://www.researchgate.net/public...duals'_in_close_contacts_of_COVID-19_patients

Returns 404 on the yiigle site.