Pollster warns Trump surging in swing states

[jmdrake]

 

[69360]

I believe Trump will win the swing states and the election but lose the popular vote.

 

[CaptUSA]

I believe Trump will win the swing states and the election but lose the popular vote.

I believe we are not done with the mayhem and no one has any idea how this will turn out.

The odds that we can go 2 months without some major calamity seems... low.

 

[Anti Federalist]

I believe we are not done with the mayhem and no one has any idea how this will turn out.

The odds that we can go 2 months without some major calamity seems... low.

I agree.

I have no idea what the wild rumpus will be.

But I Have no doubt there will be wild rumpus.

 

[69360]

The chaos seems to be slowing. 4 days until the debate. I am working on the assumption that Harris still can't debate.

 

[CaptUSA]

The chaos seems to be slowing. 4 days until the debate. I am working on the assumption that Harris still can't debate.

What world are you living in?!! The chaos is slowing??! Yeah, what's been? A month and a 1/2 since THE COUP! Hell, the ASSASSINATION ATTEMPT was like 2 whole months ago, yawn!! Oh, and what about American hostages being killed? What about FB admitting to government pressure to censor? What about a KENNEDY dropping out after a fight with his family's party and endorsing the other guy?!

I mean, if that's slow to you, you're moving way faster than I am.

 

[69360]

What world are you living in?!! The chaos is slowing??! Yeah, what's been? A month and a 1/2 since THE COUP! Hell, the ASSASSINATION ATTEMPT was like 2 whole months ago, yawn!! Oh, and what about American hostages being killed? What about FB admitting to government pressure to censor? What about a KENNEDY dropping out after a fight with his family's party and endorsing the other guy?!

I mean, if that's slow to you, you're moving way faster than I am.

The attempt to kill Trump and Biden quitting were the only major events. I don't see anything else that big coming before the election.

Who knows though?

 

[WarriorLiberty]

The Jobs Report got released and not a good look for the current admin.

 

[Swordsmyth]

 

[nobody's_hero]

I can't stand Nate Silver though.

This is the same guy who had the same predictions as everyone else and then swaps it up in the last minute of the 2016 race and runs around telling everyone he was the least-wrong out of everyone.

 

[jmdrake]

What world are you living in?!! The chaos is slowing??! Yeah, what's been? A month and a 1/2 since THE COUP! Hell, the ASSASSINATION ATTEMPT was like 2 whole months ago, yawn!! Oh, and what about American hostages being killed? What about FB admitting to government pressure to censor? What about a KENNEDY dropping out after a fight with his family's party and endorsing the other guy?!

I mean, if that's slow to you, you're moving way faster than I am.

I just found out that Israel has also killed Americans living in the West Bank. But of course that isn't being talked about. Here's the latest of an American protestor being shot dead by Israeli soldires in the West Bank.

https://apnews.com/article/american...palestinians-b2f1c741cea3d56eb1a339240dbf036e

 

[jmdrake]

I can't stand Nate Silver though.

This is the same guy who had the same predictions as everyone else and then swaps it up in the last minute of the 2016 race and runs around telling everyone he was the least-wrong out of everyone.

Politics is like the weather. The best you can hope for is a 5 day forecast. I didn't know Hillary was in trouble until election day when Barack Obama said "No matter what happens, the sun is going to come up tomorrow." I was like "What the hell?" Hillary had a $1 million victory clelebration planned with fireworks and everything.

 

[jmdrake]

The attempt to kill Trump and Biden quitting were the only major events. I don't see anything else that big coming before the election.

Who knows though?

Didn't we just recently have the biggest drop in the stock market since 2008?

 

[nobody's_hero]

Politics is like the weather. The best you can hope for is a 5 day forecast. I didn't know Hillary was in trouble until election day when Barack Obama said "No matter what happens, the sun is going to come up tomorrow." I was like "What the hell?" Hillary had a $1 million victory clelebration planned with fireworks and everything.

I think they hold their 'predictions' until the last minute. Polls are designed to influence public opinion.

You can only promote something so blatantly false, for so long, before you realize you have to tell the truth, or it's your own credibility on the line.

I'm not saying that's necessarily Nate's case. But I think for a lot of pollsters, it's what just happened with Harris. They were gonna make the Harris 'bump' into a wave before they realized 'well, sh*t. no one's buying it.'

Just like Biden was totally fit for office until that evening when he suddenly wasn't.

 

[jmdrake]

I think they hold their 'predictions' until the last minute. Polls are designed to influence public opinion.

You can only promote something so blatantly false, for so long, before you realize you have to tell the truth, or it's your own credibility on the line.

I'm not saying that's necessarily Nate's case. But I think for a lot of pollsters, it's what just happened with Harris. They were gonna make the Harris 'bump' into a wave before they realized 'well, sh*t. no one's buying it.'

Just like Biden was totally fit for office until that evening when he suddenly wasn't.

Okay. But this poll is definitely not helping Harris. There is another reason people do polls and that is to have some indication of how things are going. It's helpful to campaigns to be able to make adjustments. And it's news worthy. I believe the polls showing Biden's numbers crashing due to his obvious mental decline were accurate. The democrats made an adjustment. I'm not surprised that Harris got a bump just for being the not so dark horse canidate. Whatever you say about Harris she's not in mental decline. What you see is as good as it gets.

 

[Swordsmyth]

 

[nobody's_hero]

Whatever you say about Harris she's not in mental decline.

Have you ever heard her speak? Word salad.

Now, it could be that she's trying just a bit too hard to sound intelligent.



But, WTF?

 

[69360]

Didn't we just recently have the biggest drop in the stock market since 2008?

The average voter didn't notice or care.

 

[Swordsmyth]

 

[Voluntarist]

Didn't we just recently have the biggest drop in the stock market since 2008?

DJIA is still up roughly 6,000 over where it was a year ago and roughly 3,000 above where it was at the start of 2024. The drop during Covid in 2020 was much more precipitous.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=sGzL