Paul at 5.6% ...

[TheOnlyOne]

According to http://politicalroads.blogspot.com Ron Paul is now at his highest yet. Great news, obviously, as it shows he is slowly but surely gaining ground.

 

[itsnobody]

5.6% in which poll? Hmm...5/9 is great...just like his donations..

 

[TheOnlyOne]

They do their own polling. The site is managed by a political scientist.

 

[stevedasbach]

It seems like they've been using the Intrade numbers.

 

[MicroBalrog]

I have questions:

1. How is their polling done? Interwebs or real calls? If the latter, why are their numbers bigger then the ones in Gallup?

2.Who are Intrade?

 

[TheOnlyOne]

They don't discuss their methods, but it's safe to say they incorporate more than just the traditional landlines. They probably do use intrade, considering the precision it has had in the last elections.

 

[stevedasbach]

Intrade is a prediction market. It's not polling.

www.intrade.com

 

[wgadget]

Bump

 

[kylejack]

Intrade has to do with people investing in Ron Paul, nothing to do with actual polling.

 

[Wyurm]

Intrade is a prediction market. It's not polling.

www.intrade.com

We know, but the thing is that it tends to be more accurate than traditional polling.

 

[kylejack]

We know, but the thing is that it tends to be more accurate than traditional polling.

(Citation needed)

 

[Ninja Homer]

Intrade has to do with people investing in Ron Paul, nothing to do with actual polling.

Think of it like this:
With a poll, you say who you want to win.
With a bet, you say who you think is going to win, and stand to win or lose money based on what you think.

If 5.9% of people think Ron Paul will win, I think there are a lot more people who want him to win.

The problem is, many voters get this stupid-ass idea that they should vote for whoever seems to be winning (usually according to MSM) rather than voting for who they want to win, just so they can feel like they are on the winning team. What's ironic is that these are the losers that screw up the voting system. Instant runoff anyone?

 

[foraneagle2]

Intrade numbers are NOT equivalent to polling numbers

Polling measures the percentage of people supporting a candidate.
A prediction market measures the probability of the candidate actually winning.

I trust intrade far more than polls since people are actually betting their money. In other words, if it is inaccurate, there is room for someone to make a profit. It is like the stock market: if a stock is undervalued, people will buy it; if it is overvalued, people will sell it. Traders in a prediction market utilize ALL information at their disposal (polling numbers, etc.); therefore the prices accurately reflect the current opinion of traders (experts) as determined by the market.

 

[austin356]

It said on the blog:

"in our weekly survey ron paul is at 5.6%"

What survey. Intrade is not a weekly survey.

 

[jj111]

Intrade has to do with people investing in Ron Paul, nothing to do with actual polling.

Wagering money on Intrade is called "speculation", not investing, no matter which candidate you bet on.

If you put your time into helping Ron win, that could be considered "investing" time into the future of America.

 

[MicroBalrog]

It said on the blog:

"in our weekly survey ron paul is at 5.6%"

What survey. Intrade is not a weekly survey.

Intrade has him at 2.0.