Motivation for Russian Invasion of Georgia.

[micahnelson]

Any Ideas? I can't seem to figure it out.

Do you think it could have anything to do with attempting to position themselves strategically closer to Iran pursuant to a conflict in the wings?

Maybe they just want to remove a US-Friendly entity between them and Iran should things go the way the administration is pushing for in the region.

I'm just shooting in the dark here- seems odd.

 

[brandon]

Do you think it could have anything to do with attempting to position themselves strategically closer to Iran pursuant to a conflict in the wings?

This is what I initially thought, but then Acptulsa suggested that they may be more interested in denying us the strategic location then controlling it themselves. I think this sounds about right.

But then again, there has been conflict going on between these two countries for years, so it may actually have little to do with the US.

 

[micahnelson]

This is what I initially thought, but then Acptulsa suggested that they may be more interested in denying us the strategic location then controlling it themselves. I think this sounds about right.

But then again, there has been conflict going on between these two countries for years, so it may actually have little to do with the US.

You are ruining my America-centric view of the world Mr. Yates.

 

[Alex Libman]

Alex Jones is a liar, but he's telling the truth on the South Ossetia issue...

(I'm putting up his show Sunday on HTTP - hr1, hr2. Use those links only if you can't use BitTorrent.)

It's a NATO power-grab that backfired...

 

[Andrew-Austin]

This is what I initially thought, but then Acptulsa suggested that they may be more interested in denying us the strategic location then controlling it themselves. I think this sounds about right.

But then again, there has been conflict going on between these two countries for years, so it may actually have little to do with the US.

Well, it could be more of a combination of the two. I wouldn't put it over them to occupy Georgia longer then anyone expects. If just to have a chess piece in the right place to counter future American imperialist moves. It does seem to be a sort of NATO power grab that fumbled, and I'm sure Russia does not mind the opportunity to quell the annoying neighbor that is Georgia. What will be interesting is to see how the global community acts toward Russia these next couple of weeks.

 

[Zippyjuan]

Georgia may indeed be the target of Russia in all of this- with South Ossetia the excuse. The vast majority of Russian income is from energy. They provide Europe with one fourth of their oil and one half of their natural gas- and much of that passes through pipelines in Georgia. Taking over Georgia would give them control of the pipelines as well as access to their seaports where the fuels can be shipped from. Energy has also been a tool of Russia - either to coerce or straight out blackmail states. On one of the early days of the current crisis, Russia dropped bombs near but not on the pipelines- perhaps to show that they could take them out if they wanted to. The oil pipeline is believed to be one reason that the West and NATO want Georgia aligned with them.

http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/georgia/oil-politics.htm

Georgia - Oil Politics
Development of Caspian oil and gas resources and export routes has been slowed by regional conflict, political instability, and lack of regional cooperation. Many of the proposed export routes pass through areas where conflicts remain unresolved. Most of these are in the Transcaucasus part of the Caspian region, where conflicts in Georgia, the Chechnya portion of Russia, and between Armenia and Azerbaijan, hinder the development of export routes westward from the Caspian.

The future of the Caucasus region could be determined by the pipelines running through it. Each country in the region and several outside it have their own views on how oil and gas should reach the rest of the world. The western route for early oil from Azerbaijan goes from Baku to the Georgian port of Supsa on the Black Sea, and several other proposed pipeline routes also pass through Georgia. Pipeline construction on the western route was suspended briefly in October 1998 because of the fighting between government forces and those led by Akaki Eliava.

The proposed pipeline routes pass near several regions of Georgia that have been the site of separatist struggles, such as Abkhazia and Ossetia. Georgia has expressed a willingness to grant Abkhazia some autonomy, and talks to resolve the standoff have included proposals to route future oil pipelines across the rebel region, on the premise that economic cooperation could help bring peace to the region. The port of Supsa, the terminus of the western route for "early oil" from the AIOC, is 12 miles from a buffer zone between Abkhazia and Georgia.

The long controversial Baku-Ceyhan ("Main Export Pipeline") from the Caspian through Turkey to the Mediterranean should be completed by 2004, along with a parallel gas pipeline from Turkmenistan. Where these pipelines are built will create winners and losers in this multinational competition. The success of these projects would end an almost century-old Russian stranglehold on the oil and gas resources of the Caspian. The new pipelines are clearly is meant to weaken the influence of Russia in the region and therefore are regarded as hostile by the Russian Government. Moscow might choose to cause more trouble in the Caucasus. It has fomented rebellions in the past and can do so again. Georgia, through which the new pipeline would pass, is particularly vulnerable. It blamed Moscow for backing the secession of Abkhazia and South Ossetia.

 

[Zippyjuan]

http://news.theage.com.au/business/west-worried-about-georgia-oil-pipeline-20080811-3t5f.html

West worried about Georgia oil pipeline
Email Print Normal font Large font August 11, 2008 - 7:29AM

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Western concerns are growing over the impact of bloody clashes between Georgia and Russia on a key oil pipeline through the region from the Caspian Sea to the West, analysts say.

While Georgia does not produce oil itself, US and European energy firms have counted on the pro-Western country - sandwiched between Russia and Iran further south - to host a conduit for oil and gas exports from Azerbaijan.

Since President Mikheil Saakashvili took power in 2004 two new pipes have been built, and the explosion of violence between Georgia and huge northern neighbour is threatening those, notably the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline.

As if vindicating those concerns, the head of Azerbaijan's state oil company said on Saturday that oil exports had been halted via the Georgian ports of Batumi and Kulevi due to the clashes over the breakaway region of South Ossetia.

That announcement came shortly after Georgian Prime Minister Lado Gurgenidze said that Russian warplanes had staged a raid near the 1,774-kilometre BTC pipeline, the world's second longest.

But British oil giant BP downplayed that report, saying it could not confirm any such Russian bombing. "We are not aware of that and I think we probably would be if it were true," said a spokesman.

Inaugurated in 2006, the pipeline which carries oil from Azerbaijan on the shores of the Caspian to Western markets via the Turkish Mediterranean port of Ceyhan. It is capable of transporting 1.2 million barrels a day.

BP has a 30 per cent stake in the pipeline, which cost three billion US dollars to build, along with some 10 other partners including US oil groups Chevron and ConocoPhillips.

Transporting oil through the Caucasus is designed to make the West less dependent on supplies from Russia, which has shown worrying willingness to close the taps in disputes with other ex-Soviet states in recent years.

But Paul Stevens, oil analyst with the Chatham House think tank in London, said the possible threat to the BTC pipe is unlikely to scare oil markets in the short term.

The pipeline has in any case been out of action since last week due to an explosion in eastern Turkey for which Kurdish separatists claimed responsibility, he explained.

"Even if the pipe is out of action for a week or two weeks it's very unlikely that this would have much effect on global oil supplies," he told Sky News television.

BP is also the operator of the South Caucasus pipeline, a 692 kilometre long conduit transporting gas from Azerbaijan's vast Shah Deniz offshore field via Georgia to the Turkish border.

Analyst Natalia Leshchenko of Global Insight said the current conflict should have little effect on the pipelines in the immediate future.

"The task of the Russian forces at present is to ensure control of South Ossetia.... The pipelines would be in danger only if the war escalated," she told AFP.

But she added: "If Russia started an economic blockade, then it might target the pipelines." Russian armed forces denied Sunday imposing a naval blockade on arms shipments into Georgia's Black Sea ports.

Michael Denison of Leeds University, an associate fellow of Chatham House, said it was unlikely Russia would threaten the BTC pipeline.

"Attempts to take control of that pipeline would be extreme," he said.

While the threat to the pipelines is considered relatively low, analysts agree that the Georgian conflict could discourage investment in the Caspian region.

"The conflict is going to cause people to think twice about investing in the oil industry in the Caspian region, if it's in the middle of a war zone," said Stevens.

 

[Kade]

The Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan international oil pipeline.

Georgia was within months of becoming a member of NATO, Russia needed to do something fast, and the Olympics were a perfect time, under the propaganda of a Georgia Aggression and "ethnic" cleansing...

Our country is far too weak, far too pathetic in regards to foreign policy now... it was a genius move on Russia's part... genius. This event would had lead to World War III if they had done this after the 1991 independence...

This has been in the works for well over 8 years.

 

[Zolah]

Georgia was within months of becoming a member of NATO, Russia needed to do something fast, and the Olympics were a perfect time, under the propaganda of a Georgia Aggression and "ethnic" cleansing...

Our country is far too weak, far too pathetic in regards to foreign policy now... it was a genius move on Russia's part... genius. This event would had lead to World War III if they had done this after the 1991 independence...

This has been in the works for well over 8 years.

Great theory, couple problems - Georgia started this conflict on Friday, not Russia...and Georgia is unable to join NATO until it resolves its LAND DISPUTES, hence why it attacked South Ossetia to regain control of the region by force.

 

[Zippyjuan]

Russia did not start it, but they certainly seem to be trying to take full advantage of the opportunity. They have not restricted their military to the South Ossetia region and seem to be moving further and further into Georgia. From two fronts now.

 

[gutteck]

To understand what is going in the world on just ask yourself one question: “How does this move the world towards a one world government?”


The central bank of Russia is the real ruler of Russia just as the Federal Reserve is the ruler of the US. Also every country has a central bank which controls that country including Georgia. So the bankers tell the presidents what they are going to do and they just have to do it.

Russia had been practicing war games and building up militarily for the invasion for more than 4 months. This was planned a long time ago. Also the US had especial forces training Georgian forces and providing them with weapons etc. Things like this need preparation, meaning that a plan had to be put in place, meaning that these things don’t happen spontaneously.

Just as the purpose of the economic crisis and the destruction of the dollar are to create the NAU and thus, bringing the world closer towards a one world government the coming WWIII also serves the purpose of a one world government.

When the world is devastated by the war the World Bank gang will propose a one world government to end all war over land. Also they will push a one world currency, which will be controlled by the World Bank. They will create the money and control the money supply of the whole world in a more centralized, more organized, manner.




/

 

[SigurdVolsung]

I fully applaud every single action taken by Russia, that country did everything we should have done. I hear Bush saying hes critical of the disproportionate response Russia took against Georgia. The point of the matter is, that Georgia tried to overrun South Ossetia while no one was watching, and while they were doing it commited War Crimes.

If you support Georgia you need to take a good hard look at their actions. Shooting ambulances, using multiple launch rocket systems and artillery against a city, shooting the wounded, running over people with tanks, shelling refugee colums, throwing grenades into basements where people are sheltering.

Ossetia only has 70,000 people and in 3 days 2,000 were killed, that is a huge number, they already lost 10,000 in the civil war a little over a decade ago. Russia's response may have been overwhelming but it was necessary to stop the killings of civilians who also happen to be Russian citizens.

Watching the Georgian president try to spin this as Russian aggression and claim that Russia is commiting genocide against the Georgian people is ludicrous and nauseating to watch. It might strategically be in Russia's interest to control South Ossetia and even Georgia, but they restrained themselves, Georgians fired the first shots and commited the first atrocities. Need I remind you that when it started the Georgian peace keepers turned on their fellow peacekeepers and killed them. They also executed the wounded.

Russia is acting in the right, I can only hope they are continually able to stop Georgia and the West and do what is right for the Ossetian people.

 

[Aratus]

The Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan international oil pipeline.

Georgia was within months of becoming a member of NATO, Russia needed to do something fast, and the Olympics were a perfect time, under the propaganda of a Georgia Aggression and "ethnic" cleansing...

Our country is far too weak, far too pathetic in regards to foreign policy now... it was a genius move on Russia's part... genius. This event would had lead to World War III if they had done this after the 1991 independence...

This has been in the works for well over 8 years.

Kade, its not that we are weak, its just that Russia's new guy who is
a "number two" at heart beat out the old grumpus who is our veep... for as Putin & Bush happily
merrily chatted during the syncronized displays at the Olympics, inside the doubly censored
media bottleneck that is the Olympic Village, echoes of "time magazine in yesteryear" events were on
the march.--- methinks we do have an option. were we to talk gruff and politely ask the Federation's army
to "red army in reverse geer" itself OUT of today's Georgia, in tandem with shifting our fleet up
THRU the SUEZ CANAL, like would this TR approach as in talk softly yet carry a REALLY BIG walking stick
now have RUSSIAN FEDERATION UNITs finding their own home turf?

Russia now has
a gravitas, a weight. binary?...either way,
they either secure Georgia again or they defend Iran...totally!!!
we must now blink... politely. ~~~ shades of 1962...sorta!

 

[dannno]

Alex Jones is a liar, but he's telling the truth on the South Ossetia issue...

(I'm putting up his show Sunday on HTTP - hr1, hr2. Use those links only if you can't use BitTorrent.)

It's a NATO power-grab that backfired...

I'm not advocating that Alex Jones is a "liar", but he is most certainly right about this one.

I can't believe our messageboard isn't exploding with the truth about this incident. I thought Ron Paul supporters were truth seekers!!

Look, Georgia invaded South Ossetia first and killed over 1,000 people including Russian peacekeeping forces, and they targeted innocent civilians, schools and hospitals. CNN, BBC, etc. ARE NOT MENTIONING THIS FACT!! Georgia broke the ceasefire and started the bombings against it's own country! Now they are saying that Russia attacked Georgia, when Russia is on a peace keeping mission! CNN is airing footage of Georgia bombing South Ossetia and saying that it is Russia bombing Georgia!!

Now, this is really complicated because most of South Ossetia is populated by russians with passports. The South Ossetia has it's own government which operates independently of Georgia, and 95%+ of the citizens of South Ossetia want liberation from Georgia!!

This is a really big deal, we need to educate people about what is really happening in this conflict. We can't let the media get away with this. This is almost as bad as the media blackout Ron Paul was handed during his election!!

 

[Aratus]

Iran and Georgia are tradeoffs... if there be diplomacy.
like if both sides cease having their pet projects continue on...

 

[dannno]

Did I mention that Russia has killed two African American mercenaries that had black uniforms, other mercenary forces with black uniforms + american flags have been reported fighting along with Georgian forces, and now Russia is saying they've captured an African American mercenary who they believe is American??


Not a peep from the MSM... just like Ron Paul...

 

[klamath]

This will benefit the nationalist russians. It will bring extreme pride in the Russian military. I do not really think they will try and take over Georgia but it sure strengthened their hand against the expansion of NATO. This was very well planned. Georgia was a loose canon stupidly supported by the EU and the US and Putin knew the Georgians would pull this stupid stunt and had their military forces completely ready for this. Great strategic move.

 

[dannno]

This will benefit the nationalist russians. It will bring extreme pride in the Russian military. I do not really think they will try and take over Georgia but it sure strengthened their hand against the expansion of NATO. This was very well planned. Georgia was a loose canon stupidly supported by the EU and the US and Putin knew the Georgians would pull this stupid stunt and had their military forces completely ready for this. Great strategic move.

I hope you're wrong, but this is the opinion i've gotten from some others too. We really f'd up this time.

 

[RockEnds]

http://www.kp.ru/daily/24144/362246/

Yesterday the deputy the chief of the Joint Staff of the Russian Federation general-colonel Anatoly Nagovitsyn has told, that, according to our party, for August, 11th are considered captured (or missing persons) 14 Russian military men. Almost all of them are scouts. Data about quantity of the Georgian militarians grasped during fights the general hasn't named. In Ministry of Defence of South Ossetia and Abkhazia declare, that during fights it has been grasped more than 30 Georgian military (wounded men and voluntary surrendered in a captivity). Still nearby 10 person have been detained by bodies of counterspionage as " agents of foreign special services ".

 

[Imperial]

Russia did not start it, but they certainly seem to be trying to take full advantage of the opportunity. They have not restricted their military to the South Ossetia region and seem to be moving further and further into Georgia. From two fronts now.

I can't remember if it was here or on another forum, but there was something I read about on this issue.

Apparently, there is only one decent road between Russia and South Ossetia. So, the Georgian plan was to blitz South Ossetia and close off the gate, effectively ending this front.

However, this doesn't make much sense. I mean, Russia has been building up its own "peacekeeping" forces in the area since at least April, and was immediately ready.

So, if Georgia knew it would fail, what was the goal? The only guess is they hoped for Western support, but why now? Wouldn't it have been more logical BEFORE the Russian troop build-up, or even during it? What changed?

I'm not advocating that Alex Jones is a "liar", but he is most certainly right about this one.

I can't believe our messageboard isn't exploding with the truth about this incident. I thought Ron Paul supporters were truth seekers!!

Look, Georgia invaded South Ossetia first and killed over 1,000 people including Russian peacekeeping forces, and they targeted innocent civilians, schools and hospitals. CNN, BBC, etc. ARE NOT MENTIONING THIS FACT!! Georgia broke the ceasefire and started the bombings against it's own country! Now they are saying that Russia attacked Georgia, when Russia is on a peace keeping mission! CNN is airing footage of Georgia bombing South Ossetia and saying that it is Russia bombing Georgia!!

Now, this is really complicated because most of South Ossetia is populated by russians with passports. The South Ossetia has it's own government which operates independently of Georgia, and 95%+ of the citizens of South Ossetia want liberation from Georgia!!

This is a really big deal, we need to educate people about what is really happening in this conflict. We can't let the media get away with this. This is almost as bad as the media blackout Ron Paul was handed during his election!!

It is claimed that Georgia responded to South Ossetians breaking the ceasefire originally in place. Doesn't this sound like Turkey attacking the Kurds, which still hasn't withdrawn? Besides that though, I would say there is nobody who is in the moral right. Georgia has been brutal as much as the Russians have.

The simple fact is, the Caucasus is a shatter belt. Plain and simple. Armenians, Georgians, Russians, and numerous tribes descended from Iranians including the Ossetians, Chechnyans and Azerbaijanis. Nobody is in the moral right here. Both sides are tense and adamant, just like the Balkans. It is a remnant of the competition between the Ottoman Empire, Russia, and to a lesser extent Persia(in the Caucasus).

Now, I am not saying the Western media is pitifully on the side of Georgia. I think they need to blame Georgia as much as Russia. I mean, Russia has been escalating the situation just as Georgia has. Both sides are excessively brutal. This is what happens in tense ethnic situations, sad to say.

Really, instead of both sides and the West allowing a war to foment, this should have been mediated long ago...

PS: While the Ossetians have Russian passports, they are actually an ethnic group descended from Iranians. Also, there is a North Ossetia too, that is fully in Russia.