John Hostettler: 50%; Brad Ellsworth: 32%

[RonPaulFanInGA]

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/pub...lections/indiana/election_2010_indiana_senate

 

[Nathan Hale]

I don't know what those polling companies have against head-to-head polls in primary fields.

 

[itshappening]

I don't know what those polling companies have against head-to-head polls in primary fields.

Rasmussen dont tend to do primary polls, there are lots of polling firms and they seem to spread the load so it doesn't screw up the samples i.e another firm will do the primary polls

I know daily kos seem to always do both but Rasmussen must think it's not a good idea

 

[Nathan Hale]

Rasmussen dont tend to do primary polls, there are lots of polling firms and they seem to spread the load so it doesn't screw up the samples i.e another firm will do the primary polls

I know daily kos seem to always do both but Rasmussen must think it's not a good idea

I don't see the problem with first asking if the person is a registered Dem/GOP. Then asking about head-to-heads in the general, and then drilling down to the primary based on their first answer. But that's just me.

 

[TCE]

Rumor has it Coats is going to coast in the primary, I hope they're wrong.

 

[itshappening]

Rumor has it Coats is going to coast in the primary, I hope they're wrong.

I think he has the money, we need to know where things stand

 

[erowe1]

Rumor has it Coats is going to coast in the primary, I hope they're wrong.

Rumor from where? And based on what?

Be careful about paying attention to that kind of thing. Part of the way the GOP works when they anoint someone like that is to get all the party leaders to talk to the rank and file like it's a done deal so that nobody thinks it's worth bothering with other candidates. When they do that, they're just trying to make it a self-fulfilling prophecy. And it doesn't always work. They tried that early on against Rand and failed. Whatever they use against him from here on out, it won't be that. In Indiana they tried that with the AG race in 2008, and they failed there too.

I don't know what kind of shape Coats is in. I take for granted that he'll have the most money to spend, which will be important, but how much more and how important is anybody's guess. I know for sure that the entire network of tea party, 912, and patriot groups across the state is pretty united against him and vocally so. If they all divide their votes between the other candidates, then it may work in Coats' favor. But if we can get them to unite behind Hostettler, then Coats will definitely be in trouble.

 

[specsaregood]

But if we can get them to unite behind Hostettler, then Coats will definitely be in trouble.

You had said earlier that Hostettler is bad at fundraising and doesn't like doing it. Do you know if he is trying to get past that? Maybe he could get Dr. Paul out there to do an event for him and get the RP people in the area energized?

 

[TCE]

I think he has the money, we need to know where things stand

He really doesn't. The GOP Establishment is withholding money and giving it to Coats. He historically has been a terrible fundraiser. I am surprised there hasn't been even a mini-bomb with the primary on May 4.

Rumor from where? And based on what?

Be careful about paying attention to that kind of thing. Part of the way the GOP works when they anoint someone like that is to get all the party leaders to talk to the rank and file like it's a done deal so that nobody thinks it's worth bothering with other candidates. When they do that, they're just trying to make it a self-fulfilling prophecy. And it doesn't always work. They tried that early on against Rand and failed. Whatever they use against him from here on out, it won't be that. In Indiana they tried that with the AG race in 2008, and they failed there too.

I don't know what kind of shape Coats is in. I take for granted that he'll have the most money to spend, which will be important, but how much more and how important is anybody's guess. I know for sure that the entire network of tea party, 912, and patriot groups across the state is pretty united against him and vocally so. If they all divide their votes between the other candidates, then it may work in Coats' favor. But if we can get them to unite behind Hostettler, then Coats will definitely be in trouble.

From what I have heard from somewhat reliable sources, the national GOP is pretty confident in Coats and doesn't see Hostettler as a threat. I'm not sure what polls they're looking at, but the GOP believes Coats will win in a landslide this November and handily in a month. Again, I hope they're wrong and I hope Hostettler crushes Coats.

Specs: I can't see how Dr. Paul could help Hostettler. Monetarily perhaps, but you're talking about a different kind of Republican in Indiana. He definitely needs money and energy, but Dr. Paul probably wouldn't be the best move.

 

[erowe1]

You had said earlier that Hostettler is bad at fundraising and doesn't like doing it. Do you know if he is trying to get past that? Maybe he could get Dr. Paul out there to do an event for him and get the RP people in the area energized?

He's definitely being deliberate about raising more than he did for his House races. He's no longer refusing PAC money, which I think is a good thing. I don't know where things stand for bringing RP in for a fund raiser. I know the idea has been discussed, and I'm pretty sure the Hostettler folks would like it to happen. But I don't know if there's anything actually planned that might be a secret for the time being or if it might be something RP doesn't want to do for a contested primary or what.

 

[erowe1]

From what I have heard from somewhat reliable sources, the national GOP is pretty confident in Coats and doesn't see Hostettler as a threat.

Coats not seeing Hostettler as a threat is pretty different from Hostettler not being a threat. I think Coats is pretty out of touch, and most of the people he is relying on for securing the nomination may be too. It really does remind me a lot of the way the IN GOP tried to anoint John Costas as their AG nominee and all the county leaders and elected Republicans around the state seemed to think it was a done deal, with a lot of them endorsing him just because they were sure he'd win and they wanted to be in his good graces when he did, and then Zoeller won the election at the convention, partly because the rank and file delegates resented the leaders getting involved in a contested intra-party race like that. And if anything I'd say the party leaders have more control over the vote at a convention than they do in a statewide primary election. That's even more the case this year than usual because there's a statewide network of conservatives outside the party establishment who are semi-organized and determined to make a difference in the tea party movement.