Iowa Straw Poll Turnout???

[Alabama Supporter]

I have read in many articles that they are planning for 25,000-40,000 votes to be cast in the Iowa Straw Poll. I am seriously beginning to doubt they come close to 25,000 votes. I am going to estimate 17,000-19,000 votes (that may be too high).

These factors lead me to believe the turnout will be much lower than predicted:
1. None of the above is the current poll leader
2. The "top tier/media darlings" won't even be participating.
3. The Iraq War seems to be unpopular in Iowa.
4. Why should the Republican's be excited about any of these guys? (except Ron Paul)

I could go on, but you see my point. I also think a low turnout plays into Ron Paul's favor. If 17,000 vote, ron paul can get 30% with 5100 votes.

By the way, here are the results from the 1999 Ames Straw Poll:
George W. Bush - 7418 (31%)
Steve Forbes - 4921 (21%)
Elizabeth Dole - 3410 (14%)
Gary Bauer - 2114 (9%)
Patrick Buchanan - 1719 (7%)
Lamar Alexander - 1428 (6%)
Alan Keyes - 1101 (5%)
Dan Quayle - 916 (4%)
Orrin Hatch- 558 (2%)
Total: 23,585

 

[Badger Paul]

You may be right but we need a big turnout. If what you say comes true, and just the traditional GOP political junkies turn out, then we may not do well because our support right now is more outside than inside the party.

If we can draw a broad coaltion of people to Ames, then we can show the whole GOP that Ron Paul can help the party by being its nominee and that will help him in the long run by drawing more Republican voters.

 

[Akus]

Our biggest strength is that Guilianis and Romneys of this race still deem us irrelevant.

 

[ghemminger]

I don't understand that comment

 

[Akus]

I don't understand that comment

which comment, you didn't quote anything...