socialize_me
Member
- Joined
- Sep 21, 2008
- Messages
- 870
I mean this is some tough stuff to predict..I seriously doubt $700 billion will be appropriated as it'll end up being astronomically higher as Congressmen/women jam the bill with a bunch of pork, but yet this is Congress' last week of session. Plus, they see it as a crisis so maybe they will just pass a bill free of more stimulus amendments.
But let's just say the bill does get passed this week; how does the market react?? I mean, financial stocks will be up, no doubt, but so will commodities. Gold/silver, agriculture, natural gas, and yes, even oil. Two days ago oil rose over $30 in one trading session, the highest climb ever in a single day upon news of this bailout. If you are an avid market tracker, you'll notice that anytime oil is up big (~5%), the market tanks. But if this $700 billion does pass, investors understand the inflation that comes with it (hence the reaction on Monday) and so oil could very well spike to $150 and continue to climb as the market deteriorates. Which leaves me confused...financials will rally from the free money and "stabilization", but yet oil will be approaching all-time highs..over 20% of the Dow are financials so the DJIA should be high, but again, the oil factor changes everything.
I don't want to give out investment advice to people out there, but what I am doing is buying up commodities. Banks may rally on this news, but once the next wave of failures and collapses hit the headlines, reality will settle in with the only difference being that gasoline costs $5/gallon and our financial situation is far worse than it is today. What blows my mind is how CNBC was trying to call a bottom to this market last week , and then AIG occurred. They tried calling a bottom this summer in mid-July, and even as far back as Bear Sterns in March.
But let's just say the bill does get passed this week; how does the market react?? I mean, financial stocks will be up, no doubt, but so will commodities. Gold/silver, agriculture, natural gas, and yes, even oil. Two days ago oil rose over $30 in one trading session, the highest climb ever in a single day upon news of this bailout. If you are an avid market tracker, you'll notice that anytime oil is up big (~5%), the market tanks. But if this $700 billion does pass, investors understand the inflation that comes with it (hence the reaction on Monday) and so oil could very well spike to $150 and continue to climb as the market deteriorates. Which leaves me confused...financials will rally from the free money and "stabilization", but yet oil will be approaching all-time highs..over 20% of the Dow are financials so the DJIA should be high, but again, the oil factor changes everything.
I don't want to give out investment advice to people out there, but what I am doing is buying up commodities. Banks may rally on this news, but once the next wave of failures and collapses hit the headlines, reality will settle in with the only difference being that gasoline costs $5/gallon and our financial situation is far worse than it is today. What blows my mind is how CNBC was trying to call a bottom to this market last week , and then AIG occurred. They tried calling a bottom this summer in mid-July, and even as far back as Bear Sterns in March.
